Central PA Winter 23/24

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon run finished and did what I  hoped it would do, which is the only way we get snow coincidentally! Lol

The cut off low pulls the surface low back to the NW ala 1/25/00. The run stops after getting snow to us but it would be better if it went out further. At least on the lines of the Canadian imho.

 

Should have added, Icon IS cold enough. 

[Atomixwx]

der iKon. Scheiße.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[mitchnick]

Lol. Have to chalk up Euro run as a wee bit off. Only model that keeps everything, rain included, offshore due to pressing cold front from Canada. 

[Wxdavis5784]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Rough could be an understatement, when it comes from him.

I was trying to take the high road and be nice lol.

[Atomixwx]

I was trying to take the high road and be nice lol.

High road ices first. The high road is basically Peters Mountain. I would avoid it at all costs.

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[Wxdavis5784]

1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

High road ices first. The high road is basically Peters Mountain. I would avoid it at all costs.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

I dig the ice. 

[TimB]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

No. You're just a liar. First you said you couldn't pull up the Gfs and now you're lying why you lied in the first place. Congrats....you accurately represent people pushing the lies you believe.

Seems like the Euro believed the same lies I do.

[paweather]

13 minutes ago, TimB said:

Seems like the Euro believed the same lies I do.

Go back to your Pittsburgh hole. 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Admittedly, at first glance it may seem like a long shot with 1 system coming through with a trailing trough that amplifies thanks to a strong 1st system. Otoh, that's sorta what brought us snow yesterday with a front/trough that moved through and trailing northern stream energy moving to our south. 

Go to this link to the Canadian 132 hrs 5h and surface map then move it forward. You'll see what I'm talking about. Icon is similar, so try that too, but it stops before the end of the run for some unknown reason. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023121212&fh=132

just looked and yeah, IF that can evolve as depictec, your suspicions would have a chance.  closed off n column cools sufficiently to get er done....well....maybe. 

Hey, if I was a bit trigger happy on writing off the rest of the year, it wouldn't be the first time in my life I was wrong....it'd be the second.  

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Have to chalk up Euro run as a wee bit off. Only model that keeps everything, rain included, offshore due to pressing cold front from Canada. 

gfs had the southern slider kinda look IMO.  Regardless (cause it IS a word to me)...its a wonky evolution (based on 500's), but hey, I'll play along.  

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, TimB said:

Seems like the Euro believed the same lies I do.

Ohhhh, that's the problem...you don't know the difference between facts and lies. The simulated forecast from a computer is a fact. The forecast may end up right or wrong, but the forecast is a fact. Your post that you couldn't pull up the Gfs forecast and that your purpose was to check on model consensus for next week's blizzard was a lie on top of a lie. Now do understand...liar? Why don't you just stop? It's over.

[mitchnick]

Just now, pasnownut said:

gfs had the southern slider kinda look IMO.  Regardless (cause it IS a word to me)...its a wonky evolution (based on 500's), but hey, I'll play along.  

Way too complicated for the models to figure it out at this range, but they all feature the 2 Low scenario. And with the cold air lurking to the north and a deep surface Low or 2, it's something to follow since at 2 out of the 4 models give us snow at this point. Ukie isn't in range yet, except it does give us rain, which really makes me think the Euro operational is out to lunch. Even the Eps drops .75" of rain imby.

[Bubbler86]

50 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Way too complicated for the models to figure it out at this range, but they all feature the 2 Low scenario. And with the cold air lurking to the north and a deep surface Low or 2, it's something to follow since at 2 out of the 4 models give us snow at this point. Ukie isn't in range yet, except it does give us rain, which really makes me think the Euro operational is out to lunch. Even the Eps drops .75" of rain imby.

The model PBP is still fun to discuss (when I have time, unlike today).  I like that you seem to be a PBP type as well :-) 

[paweather]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The model PBP is still fun to discuss (when I have time, unlike today) 

Can’t wait for the PBP to start! 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z EPS & Canadian ensemble today are heading in the right direction for late December.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GEFS really took a positive step with the look for late December.

[Yardstickgozinya]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GEFS really took a positive step with the look for late December.

Same map is causing total anguish over at the MA . Way to 73 they say lol. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm not worried like those sissies in the MA. If it doesn't turn around by Feb 7th then I might start sucking my thumb. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Same map is causing total anguish over at the MA . Way to 73 they say lol. 

That was the winter that turned me into a hard core weenie.  Mby, 3 miles south of BWI, got 1 inch the whole winter from a frontal passage the first week of 2/73. I remember it vividly because of the scars. Lol Funny that what made it so bad was we had 1 winter storm watch and one ws warning that resulted in no snow, just cirrus. They had a model back then, I think it was the LFM but could be wrong, and it sucked as much as the current ones.  Because of that winter, I  thought it would never snow again, so I pulled my first all-nighter in 12/73 literally listening all night long to the only album available, Alice Cooper's I'm Eighteen. Snow started around 5:30am allowing me a couple hours of sleep.

No 2 winters are alike, so I  wouldn't worry about a repeat of that one. I'm sure there are plenty more unique ways to fail fortunately.  

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GEFS really took a positive step with the look for late December.

 

2 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Same map is causing total anguish over at the MA . Way to 73 they say lol. 

The problem with it I see is the connected low heights all the way to the Pacific, indicative of the WPO that has been and continues to be forecast persistently positive and the EPO after the dip next week around the timeframe of the coastal is forecast to trend back positive the rest of the forecast period. That kind of alignment implies a pretty good dose of Pac origin to our airmass, despite the development of the below average 500mb heights across a sizeable chunk of the CONUS. Yea that’s good for potential undercutting southern stream systems that track under us, but look at the 18z GFS result for the 17th-20th coastal. Looking at a 2-3+” rainstorm in all of PA despite the phasing with northern stream energy and an ideal coastal track via that particular solution. The problem is across the board on model guidance though with that, the cold just isn’t there for it.. not even close. We need to build an actual western US/ Eastern Pac ridge, that would at the least source Canadian air (even though temps are significantly above average for there) to go with the undercutting low heights. 

Here was the last 5 day (D11-16) avg temp anomalies from that 18z GEFS.

By the way,  I am not part of the winter’s already over or is going to suck crew. It’s been noted that a lot of forecasters and Nino analogs, even the cold ones featured a warmer than average December over a lot of the US. Even JB said it was going to be warm first half of the month, just that he thought that this was going to turn around the holidays. Which it may, but right now I don’t see a quick enough wholesale turnaround in the pattern for that timeframe (at least by Christmas). 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

The problem with it I see is the connected low heights all the way to the Pacific, indicative of the WPO that has been and continues to be forecast persistently positive and the EPO after the dip next week around the timeframe of the coastal is forecast to trend back positive the rest of the forecast period. That kind of alignment implies a pretty good dose of Pac origin to our airmass, despite the development of the below average 500mb heights across a sizeable chunk of the CONUS. Yea that’s good for potential undercutting southern stream systems that track under us, but look at the 18z GFS result for the 17th-20th coastal. Looking at a 2-3+” rainstorm in all of PA despite the phasing with northern stream energy and an ideal coastal track via that particular solution. The problem is across the board on model guidance though with that, the cold just isn’t there for it.. not even close. We need to build an actual western US/ Eastern Pac ridge, that would at the least source Canadian air (even though temps are significantly above average for there) to go with the undercutting low heights. 

Here was the last 5 day (D11-16) avg temp anomalies from that 18z GEFS.

By the way,  I am not part of the winter’s already over or is going to suck crew. It’s been noted that a lot of forecasters and Nino analogs, even the cold ones featured a warmer than average December over a lot of the US. Even JB said it was going to be warm first half of the month, just that he thought that this was going to turn around the holidays. Which it may, but right now I don’t see a quick enough wholesale turnaround in the pattern for that timeframe (at least by Christmas). 

Hopefully the MJO progression into the null phase & then emerging into weak phase 7 & 8 will help the pattern to improve by the end of the month.

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

That was the winter that turned me into a hard core weenie.  Mby, 3 miles south of BWI, got 1 inch the whole winter from a frontal passage the first week of 2/73. I remember it vividly because of the scars. Lol Funny that what made it so bad was we had 1 winter storm watch and one ws warning that resulted in no snow, just cirrus. They had a model back then, I think it was the LFM but could be wrong, and it sucked as much as the current ones.  Because of that winter, I  thought it would never snow again, so I pulled my first all-nighter in 12/73 literally listening all night long to the only album available, Alice Cooper's I'm Eighteen. Snow started around 5:30am allowing me a couple hours of sleep.

No 2 winters are alike, so I  wouldn't worry about a repeat of that one. I'm sure there are plenty more unique ways to fail fortunately.  

That's a great story only a true weenie could tell. I been a snow and severe weather lover since I can remember, so probably 83 84ish ,but it was the Blizzard of 93 that really showed me the size of my weenie.  I stayed up all night watching the Weather Channel and listening to Dr Dre's The Chronic on my Sega cd .  I was 14 years old, so I probably snuck in some late night Univision programing  and flipped through Fredericks of Hollywood at some point over the course of that wonderful night.  

   There is no point in depressing the hypothalamus this early in a nino winter. As many have already mentioned , I'm fully aware that Nino Decembers typically torch . The fact that there appears to be no real torch in the cards this month  is something we all should feel good about going into January. 

[Ruin]

it amazes me when long range forecasts for a season call for snow and cold almost never happens. when it calls for above average temps yep happens 

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, Ruin said:

it amazes me when long range forecasts for a season call for snow and cold almost never happens. when it calls for above average temps yep happens 

Its my understanding they have corrected the one potato through five potato algorithms on both the Euro and Gfs this year. The six and seven potato may still have some hiccups due to eeny meeny miny moe  feed back. More on this later. I must go make morning pee pee.

[mahantango#1]

25 this morning.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Same as yesterday, 28 when I left the house and 23 through the rurals. Onward. 

[Bubbler86]

8 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

 

The problem with it I see is the connected low heights all the way to the Pacific, indicative of the WPO that has been and continues to be forecast persistently positive and the EPO after the dip next week around the timeframe of the coastal is forecast to trend back positive the rest of the forecast period. That kind of alignment implies a pretty good dose of Pac origin to our airmass, despite the development of the below average 500mb heights across a sizeable chunk of the CONUS. Yea that’s good for potential undercutting southern stream systems that track under us, but look at the 18z GFS result for the 17th-20th coastal. Looking at a 2-3+” rainstorm in all of PA despite the phasing with northern stream energy and an ideal coastal track via that particular solution. The problem is across the board on model guidance though with that, the cold just isn’t there for it.. not even close. We need to build an actual western US/ Eastern Pac ridge, that would at the least source Canadian air (even though temps are significantly above average for there) to go with the undercutting low heights. 

Here was the last 5 day (D11-16) avg temp anomalies from that 18z GEFS.

By the way,  I am not part of the winter’s already over or is going to suck crew. It’s been noted that a lot of forecasters and Nino analogs, even the cold ones featured a warmer than average December over a lot of the US. Even JB said it was going to be warm first half of the month, just that he thought that this was going to turn around the holidays. Which it may, but right now I don’t see a quick enough wholesale turnaround in the pattern for that timeframe (at least by Christmas). 

I think most of us are down with the pattern not being great for 2-3 weeks but we are playing with the hopes (fantasy?) of a lucky break and perfect timing during a not-so-great pattern.  

[Bubbler86]

32 for the low this Am.  Up to 34 now. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Better looks continue at the end of all 3 ensembles for late December.

[pasnownut]

Looking at the overnighers, the 0z GFS surface maps look more reasonable as to potential evolution for the 12/22 event.  As I stated previously, the lack of cold in the eastern NH, is really throwing a big wrench into what could be a formidable event.  I'm not trying to be a debbie, and yes, due to climo, there could be some surprises, as the storm has the ability to bring down/manufacture some/enough cold for some surprises.  Long n short, its just not that cold in eastern canada, and as depicted, we'd need that.

Again, I hope I'm wrong and look forward to all of you proving it. 

Like bubbles suggests, that is the fun for many of us.  Trying to figure this stuff out.  

  

This one is rather telling IMO.  Mind you its just a run, but sorta aligns w/ ens maps at 500mb, and thermally its just a hot enough mess.