Jns2183 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Shockingly the 18Z GFS does not develop the late week storm as the 12Z did, sends it out to sea which removes the 50/50 low from the equation, and all the analysis of the 12Z is a waste as the cold source tapped at 12Z is gone. How far away day wise is this?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: How far away day wise is this? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Well on the latest GFS it is gone. The storm mentioned today is off the SE Coast. Next Monday. Just thought it ironic that happens after the discussion earlier. Model PBP is a waste sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Well on the latest GFS it is gone. The storm mentioned today is off the SE Coast. Next Monday. Just thought it ironic that happens after the discussion earlier. Model PBP is a waste sometimes. Next Monday is an a whole decade in model real time. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Just now, Jns2183 said: Next Monday is an a whole decade in model real time. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Sure. That is why model breakdowns should be taken as model break downs and not forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Sure. That is why model breakdowns should be taken as model break downs and not forecasts. Well all I'm saying is that if Ohtani 2 million a year, 68 million deferred for all 10 years stands, than baseball is dead and I support throwing at his head. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Well all I'm saying is that if Ohtani 2 million a year, 68 million deferred for all 10 years stands, than baseball is dead and I support throwing at his head. Sent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkBaseball needs financial fair play rules like world football. The luxury tax is just a rag the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox wipe their dicks with after they fuck the rest of the sport. And him deferring that money is criminal in the sense they can now go after Admiral Yamamoto this off-season, snatch up Max Fried next off-season, and probably Soto when he tells the Yankees he's not going to resign with them. The potential Dodger starting rotation of Fried, Ohtani, Buehler, May, and you bet your sweet ass Trevor Bauer will come back to LA now that he has been exonerated, is insane. There aren't enough Acuñas on earth to stop that. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Fantastic post by @FXWX in the New England thread…. Great perspective on the Winter… “Folks forget or choose not to remember the El Nino discussions during the early fall that strongly suggested December would likely run the risk of a being an above normal month with thread the needle events for any shot at meaningful snow threats. In a lot of ways this December is playing out pretty much according to classic past El Nino years... The same long-range outlooks the pointed out the risk of a warmer than normal December, also pointed toward the pattern improving once into or just beyond the Xmas holiday week. I am in that camp even if the shift to a more favorable setup waits until early January. This December pattern is nothing like last December and the global pattern is very different. I do not expect the pattern to flip into an unusually cold regime once into early January and I don't think one is needed to see significant Northeast snows. As we all know, pattern transitions are commonly a bit later the originally thought so no one should be surprised if the more favorable pattern waits a week or more later than originally projected. I don't think anyone is talking about a Jan 2015 type of flip, but I expect the large-scale NA pattern will grow more favorable for significant storm action moving into January, even if the regional temperature pattern is close to normal or a bit above normal. The pattern laid out by 40/70 is a very realistic path forward and one that fits where I think the long-range modeling seems likely to go: In short, more western ridging, an active Pacific jet under-cutting Western ridging and enough high latitude blocking to allow seasonably cold air masses to visit on a regular basis...” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 9 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: @Blizzard of 93, here is one for you to file in your template folder for future posts.... just change acronyms to CXY and MDT and city/area names to Harrisburg and West Shore and you are ready to go! :-) Lol, Hey guess what…. MDT recorded another “T” today. You can’t spell MDT without a T 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 18z GEFS has a workable looking pattern at the end of its run on 12/27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Fantastic post by @FXWX in the New England thread…. Great perspective on the Winter… “Folks forget or choose not to remember the El Nino discussions during the early fall that strongly suggested December would likely run the risk of a being an above normal month with thread the needle events for any shot at meaningful snow threats. In a lot of ways this December is playing out pretty much according to classic past El Nino years... The same long-range outlooks the pointed out the risk of a warmer than normal December, also pointed toward the pattern improving once into or just beyond the Xmas holiday week. I am in that camp even if the shift to a more favorable setup waits until early January. This December pattern is nothing like last December and the global pattern is very different. I do not expect the pattern to flip into an unusually cold regime once into early January and I don't think one is needed to see significant Northeast snows. As we all know, pattern transitions are commonly a bit later the originally thought so no one should be surprised if the more favorable pattern waits a week or more later than originally projected. I don't think anyone is talking about a Jan 2015 type of flip, but I expect the large-scale NA pattern will grow more favorable for significant storm action moving into January, even if the regional temperature pattern is close to normal or a bit above normal. The pattern laid out by 40/70 is a very realistic path forward and one that fits where I think the long-range modeling seems likely to go: In short, more western ridging, an active Pacific jet under-cutting Western ridging and enough high latitude blocking to allow seasonably cold air masses to visit on a regular basis...” “Seasonably cold” in January gets it done in New England. “Seasonably cold” in January in the southern half of PA means highs in the mid to upper 30s to near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GEFS has a workable looking pattern at the end of its run on 12/27. Yeah just need to get through the next week to 10 days and hopefully the better looks start to have merit once things shuffle a bit further down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 10 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: @Blizzard of 93, here is one for you to file in your template folder for future posts.... just change acronyms to CXY and MDT and city/area names to Harrisburg and West Shore and you are ready to go! :-) If we just continuously move our temperature measurements to cooler and cooler locations, we can will away the warming. I think suburban Western Chester County looks like an ideal candidate to utilize for the DC/Baltimore metro. When they moved the official Johnstown station from the city to the top of a mountain, it completely eliminated the warming. Are there any mountains near CXY/MDT? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, TimB said: “Seasonably cold” in January gets it done in New England. “Seasonably cold” in January in the southern half of PA means highs in the mid to upper 30s to near 40. Lol… how about Pittsburgh? Please be real just for 1 freaking second…seasonably cold would be just fine to produce Winter storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 How does a well reasoned quoted post from a red tagger get manipulated & trashed? I guess clowns need to clown… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol… how about Pittsburgh? Please be real just for 1 freaking second…seasonably cold would be just fine to produce Winter storms. I mean yeah, you can and sometimes do absolutely cash in with a seasonable January. Just don’t expect retention if you’re into that sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Just now, TimB said: I mean yeah, you can and sometimes do absolutely cash in with a seasonable January. Just don’t expect retention if you’re into that sort of thing. Snow on snow on snow with seasonably cold weather also helps with snow pack retention in January. Also, overnight lows with snow pack can really tank on calm & clear nights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: If we just continuously move our temperature measurements to cooler and cooler locations, we can will away the warming. I think suburban Western Chester County looks like an ideal candidate to utilize for the DC/Baltimore metro. When they moved the official Johnstown station from the city to the top of a mountain, it completely eliminated the warming. Are there any mountains near CXY/MDT? Suburban western Chester county is obviously simultaneously in both central PA and the Philadelphia region, seeing as he posts his obs in both, but let’s not get crazy and say it’s DC/Baltimore metro. It’s not like he posts his obs in their subforum. Oh wait, he would, but knows they’d never put up with his bullshit there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Snow on snow on snow with seasonably cold weather also helps with snow pack retention in January. Also, overnight lows with snow pack can really tank on calm & clear nights. Well then it’s not seasonable, now is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah just need to get through the next week to 10 days and hopefully the better looks start to have merit once things shuffle a bit further down the road. Yes, better days should be ahead later this month. An improved sustainable pattern in prime climo in January & February would be lots of fun on here to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: If we just continuously move our temperature measurements to cooler and cooler locations, we can will away the warming. I think suburban Western Chester County looks like an ideal candidate to utilize for the DC/Baltimore metro. When they moved the official Johnstown station from the city to the top of a mountain, it completely eliminated the warming. Are there any mountains near CXY/MDT? Sarcasm noted but I would be up for moving from MDT. How does an area that is landlocked, CTP, have one of their official stations surrounded by water on 3 sides? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, TimB said: Well then it’s not seasonable, now is it? I don’t care if there are some sunny days with highs near 40 in January as long as we have a workable pattern. With the right storm track, high temps in the low 30s with lows in the 20s would work just fine on the day of the storm. I merely mentioned the effect of snow pack & what it can do to low temperatures with the right conditions. But please, keep on twisting my words.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I don’t care if there are some sunny days with highs near 40 in January as long as we have a workable pattern. With the right storm track, high temps in the low 30s with lows in the 20s would work just fine on the day of the storm. I merely mentioned the effect of snow pack & what it can do to low temperatures with the right conditions. But please, keep on twisting my words.. If it ever snows again, I’ll be a lot less cynical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Just now, TimB said: If it ever snows again, I’ll be a lot less cynical. Like a few on here mentioned earlier, many of us have seen a little snow 3 times in the last week or so. It hasn’t added up to much, but it has felt like Winter. Better days are ahead this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Wxrisk.com epSnoordst17uti582fi7309c12350l2hmm9m4fth10c83f23355g3719hal · I cannot say this any stronger than this Anyone-- whether that person is a weather weenie... or weather Hobbyist ...or a Meteorologist -- and they are telling you that the winter is over OR that it will underperform because the 2nd half of DEC pattern change is not going to happen originally thought-- is not just an idiot. He /she is a fooking idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 The end of the 0z EPS looks encouraging with the ridge moving back into central Canada. The trough is beginning to undercut from the southwest to the south central states. The trough in the Atlantic is reaching back towards the southeast coast & appears to be getting ready to link up with the trough extending to the south central states if the run went out a couple of more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Low of 28 but hit 23 on the car thermo through the rurals. Pretty typical week ahead it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Frustrated - the Ambient station won't report to the internet. The display is accurate and up to date. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Frustrated - the Ambient station won't report to the internet. The display is accurate and up to date. Weird.Might be an issue with your ports on your routerSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: Wxrisk.com epSnoordst17uti582fi7309c12350l2hmm9m4fth10c83f23355g3719hal · I cannot say this any stronger than this Anyone-- whether that person is a weather weenie... or weather Hobbyist ...or a Meteorologist -- and they are telling you that the winter is over OR that it will underperform because the 2nd half of DEC pattern change is not going to happen originally thought-- is not just an idiot. He /she is a fooking idiot. DT is always a bit rough with his delivery, but he isn’t wrong in this case… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 David Tolleris is what you'd get if HBO had a weather show. "LISTEN HERE YOU FUCKING RETARDS, ITS GONNA SNOW! IT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER THE ROSE BOWL GAME BUT ITS GONNA SNOW!""ALEET!""ALEET!""ALEET!""ANYBODY WHO TELLS YOU THE HEAT MISER HAS WON FOREVER AND THAT THE EAST COAST IS THE NEW SAN DIEGO IS A WHALES VAGINA AND A WALRUSES ASSHOLE. THEY DONT KNOW SHIT!""ALEET!""ALEET!""ALEET!""THIS SHITTY MICROSOFT PAINT PICTURE OF THE FLAT FUCKIN EARTH SHOWS YOU THE COLD AIR LIVES HERE. ITS COMING. ANYBODY WHO TELLS YOU OTHERWISE, YOU GO AND FUCK THEIR SISTER!""ALEET!""ALEET!""ALEET?"Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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