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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


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24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a correlation to Jan 10-15th is the dividing line to a stinko winter.

Idk about that, winter can start pretty late here yet still wind up average or even above-average. 1987, 1966 and 2016 didn't get started until around Jan. 19-23 and all three ended above-average. My original point was separating the God-tier winters from the "good, but not great" ones. It has to snow early and snow often to get to that level, and if we're still shutout by the second half of December, you can pretty much kiss all those goodbye.

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On 11/26/2023 at 9:53 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

If we need to wait to mid Jan to get on the board then just about every snowfall forecast is in serious trouble.

 

17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly.

You don’t say.

Truly insufferable…

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7 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I agree. There has been a clear subtle trend warmer on the GEFS and EPS for the past week of runs in the medium to long range.

As you mentioned, too, the Pacific hasn’t woken up yet; and that changes next week. And ultimately when the shift in the pacific is captured in the initial conditions of guidance, the warmth in NA, generally, is going to surprise bigly to the upside.

 

 

After reading this (from a respected met) in the enso convo- not sure there should be any vacancies in the panic resort after Christmas this year.  

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2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

This place yeesh

 

I'm seeing an underlying poo-pooing anybody who posts about whether the warmer state of the globe overall is negatively impacting snowy setups that used to work. On the surface it's a "Why ate you worried about that and it's just Dec 2nd", but underneath that there's an aversion to the whole aspect of a "bade state" and a warmer globe. Some of you act like that couldn't even be a possibility--which I don't understand because we've all been watching the last 7 years. For me, that alone is enough to be skeptical of anything working until we actually see it work THIS season. Sure a setup worked 15-20 years ago...but show me how recently it worked. 

Yes, we have not had a legit Niño since the 2015-16 super...so that's different from the last 7 years. But you can't just dismiss any concern about certain influences being permanent features that interfere with snowy patterns.

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40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I brought this up in the main ENSO thread. That western pac and IO warm pool is theorized to be a permanent feature courtesy of warming. If so, and if a strong nino isn’t enough to offset, at least we know the party’s over. 

 

23 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yeah, but that's the canonical Nino eastern CONUS Nino torch, with the big low off the waters near AK.  What's being progged is the canonical strong Nina Pacific Warm Blob which has haunted us for the past several years.  They both fail for us, but for different reasons.  PSUs point is that if the Nina-esque forcing starts shunting aside the Nino forcing, we're not just in for a bad December.

What these two posts are referencing is precisely why I cannot fully embrace the possibility of a better winter, or seeing something different than the last 7 years. This stuff could cause a Niño not to work, thereby putting a fork in any above-mediam snow possibilities. We just don't know...that's the thing. We simply don't know, and being skeptical is not illogical given what we've seen. If the Niño works I will be thrilled...but until then...hard to be TOO optimistic just yet.

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I actually DO have a true Panic post here.

Texas is turning dry again. This Nino is now officially the Un-Nino. It's a strong Nino alright but it isnt going to bring all the rain I was expecting to Texas.

Another stark fact has occurred to me as well. There is no Beast subtropical jet. The son of a birtch is weak. We did far better in the Nina pattern with this so-called subtropical jet. Texas was really relying on a wetter fall/winter for Ogallala recharge. That is NOT gonna happen, now. American Southwest IS drying out. People are moving here in droves and I have never seen more construction in Buda and Kyle before but the Diaspora is coming, once we run out of water.

Texas will dry out, and will be in exceptional drought status just in time for May 2024 when we will experience the hottest summer ever, with nary a drop of frackin' rain. Mad Max Days are on the way for us soon here in the Parched Southwest. Texans will fight Texans to the very last agonizing drop of the water, as the entire Southwestern US dries up and blows away on the Arabian Jet.

I am actually feeling serious Panic up in here, and would you believe it? I am thinking of Jumping, over the frackin' LACK OF RAIN!!!!!!!!

 

In other news........

Mid Atlantic will have a frigid very snowy winter. Summer 2024 will be hot, humid and very WET in the Mid Atlantic.

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2 hours ago, Jebman said:

I actually DO have a true Panic post here.

Texas is turning dry again. This Nino is now officially the Un-Nino. It's a strong Nino alright but it isnt going to bring all the rain I was expecting to Texas.

Another stark fact has occurred to me as well. There is no Beast subtropical jet. The son of a birtch is weak. We did far better in the Nina pattern with this so-called subtropical jet. Texas was really relying on a wetter fall/winter for Ogallala recharge. That is NOT gonna happen, now. American Southwest IS drying out. People are moving here in droves and I have never seen more construction in Buda and Kyle before but the Diaspora is coming, once we run out of water.

Texas will dry out, and will be in exceptional drought status just in time for May 2024 when we will experience the hottest summer ever, with nary a drop of frackin' rain. Mad Max Days are on the way for us soon here in the Parched Southwest. Texans will fight Texans to the very last agonizing drop of the water, as the entire Southwestern US dries up and blows away on the Arabian Jet.

I am actually feeling serious Panic up in here, and would you believe it? I am thinking of Jumping, over the frackin' LACK OF RAIN!!!!!!!!

 

In other news........

Mid Atlantic will have a frigid very snowy winter. Summer 2024 will be hot, humid and very WET in the Mid Atlantic.

We wont have a very snowy winter if Texas is dry this winter though. We need you to get your storms as well. 

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2 hours ago, Jebman said:

I actually DO have a true Panic post here.

Texas is turning dry again. This Nino is now officially the Un-Nino. It's a strong Nino alright but it isnt going to bring all the rain I was expecting to Texas.

Another stark fact has occurred to me as well. There is no Beast subtropical jet. The son of a birtch is weak. We did far better in the Nina pattern with this so-called subtropical jet. Texas was really relying on a wetter fall/winter for Ogallala recharge. That is NOT gonna happen, now. American Southwest IS drying out. People are moving here in droves and I have never seen more construction in Buda and Kyle before but the Diaspora is coming, once we run out of water.

Texas will dry out, and will be in exceptional drought status just in time for May 2024 when we will experience the hottest summer ever, with nary a drop of frackin' rain. Mad Max Days are on the way for us soon here in the Parched Southwest. Texans will fight Texans to the very last agonizing drop of the water, as the entire Southwestern US dries up and blows away on the Arabian Jet.

I am actually feeling serious Panic up in here, and would you believe it? I am thinking of Jumping, over the frackin' LACK OF RAIN!!!!!!!!

In other news........

Mid Atlantic will have a frigid very snowy winter. Summer 2024 will be hot, humid and very WET in the Mid Atlantic.

This El Nino ain't very El Nino

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57 minutes ago, Jebman said:

40/70 Benchmark wrote up an impressive novel about the relativity of winter this low sun season. He mentioned low MEI. I am definitely in the market for a massive Panic Room Package concerning Nino Performance.

All you need to know is this, "Time will tell exactly how the weather transpires, but what is growing ever more certain is that this is no typical El Niño and nor will this be a typical winter season." 

Pretty clear this is an uphill battle.

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This El Nino ain't very El Nino

I’m going to assign you to handling option 2 (Trouble with your El Nino performance) from here on out. We’re expecting a large influx of callers in the coming weeks and unfortunately do not have the budget to hire more staff, as half our annual expenses are now going to pay @WxWatcher007 cushy retirement pension.

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27 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m going to assign you to handling option 2 (Trouble with your El Nino performance) from here on out. We’re expecting a large influx of callers in the coming weeks and unfortunately do not have the budget to hire more staff, as half our annual expenses are now going to pay @WxWatcher007 cushy retirement pension.

Paging @WxWatcher007. Paging @WxWatcher007.

Look Reaper, this is not working out here. They do not have the budget to hire more staff, because of your fat cushy pension!!!!!!! Nothing has been right since you went on so-called "retirement"! Reapers do NOT retire! Your job is ETERNAL! Everything up here is going kaput! I have an ear infection thats not healing! The weather has gone completely to shyte, we have a STRONG El Nino that is definitely NOT El Nino'ing correctly, not only is there no frackin' snow in DC, even the 1100 hour models dont have shyte for the entire Mid Atlantic! This is getting completely out of hand! Germany is getting all of our snow! They can't even get out of their second floor windows! Mammoth and Palisades are being forced to make do with 2 inch snowfalls, they are being pennied, nickled and dimed to death! It's worse than Jaws! At least in Jaws all you needed was a bigger boat and you could kill the damn shark! You can't fight an El Nino that won't Nino correctly! Texas where I live is fooking OUT OF RAIN! In a STRONG NINO! Get your sorry 8ss off that damn couch, scrap that retirement, get back to work as The Reaper NOW! I am desperate for destructive Nino floods in south central Texas! You need to Reap! You might have to Reap ME! I am so despondent over no frackin' rain in Texas! Your fat cushy retirement is ruining EVERYTHING! The El Nino won't even Nino now!

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23 hours ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

@WxWatcher007 Can you please come out of retirement just once and take my soul? I promise to have Angel of death by Slayer playing on repeat and will lurk for eternity. 

 

19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m going to assign you to handling option 2 (Trouble with your El Nino performance) from here on out. We’re expecting a large influx of callers in the coming weeks and unfortunately do not have the budget to hire more staff, as half our annual expenses are now going to pay @WxWatcher007 cushy retirement pension.

My pension is excellent and retirement is good. 

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

My pension is excellent and retirement is good. 

 

You can be like Gordon Ramsay in his "Hotel Hell" series.  Stop by the Panic Room now and then to make sure it's still up to its 5-star quality that you left it in upon retiring and handing over management.  If it's in bad shape, you can go all Ramsay F-bomb and "Oh my God, this is disgusting!!"

hotel hell Memes & GIFs - Imgflip

 

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

You can be like Gordon Ramsay in his "Hotel Hell" series.  Stop by the Panic Room now and then to make sure it's still up to its 5-star quality that you left it in upon retiring and handing over management.  If it's in bad shape, you can go all Ramsay F-bomb and "Oh my God, this is disgusting!!"

hotel hell Memes & GIFs - Imgflip

 

Do I get paid for this?

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