December 2023

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

There should be no shortage of storms this winter.   Just have to hope there's a decent cold air supply at times...

and phasing with the STJ if you want something to remember.  The STJ will be present for sure but without some stream interaction we could be on the the northern edge of things.  Not to mention (as you did) the cold air supply.

[MJO812]

Gfs is close with the 2nd wave 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is close with the 2nd wave 

If anything happens it’s going to be with that second system but it’s going to have to work out perfectly. 

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If anything happens it’s going to be with that second system but it’s going to have to work out perfectly. 

Step in the right direction for euro also. The 1st wave has to get out of the way faster.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I am too lazy to dig that far but isn't phase 7 in Dec during Ninos quite a bit better than it is in neutral or Nina?

Not much difference since both they both have a warmer than average pattern here. Ridge extending into the Northeast with trough near the SW or near the West Coast. 

El Nino P 7 December 

General  P 7 December

 

[Eduardo]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Canceling already in November ? What's up with some people on here ?

Be lucky we are in an El Nino and a better winter will most likely be upon us with chances as we go into late Decemver and forward.

I think this is true, but only inspires minimal excitement, given how horrendous last winter was.  For me, the hope is that the different ENSO state this year makes enough of a difference that blocky periods can deliver us something (unlike last year when all they did was trap the PAC puke over us).

I really have low expectations on the whole here though.  Until we break this multi-year humdrum pattern, I’ll log anything we get as a bonus.

[MJO812]

Maybe a chance next week with the deeply negative NAO and AO .

[WX-PA]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The RMM charts aren’t telling the whole story. The actual forcing in the 4-7 regions is going to be very robust. This is a warmer than average forcing signal through at least December 20th or 25th. This is why the models keep correcting warmer the closer in time we get. My early guess is that this means another close to 40° or warmer December for NYC.

 

By

 

By the 20th we'll be in phase 8..I know phase 8 is cold..so that sets up some wintry weather the week of Christmas..extending into January with 1 or 2, if MJO is the only indicator.. Of course their other factors.

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not much difference since both they both have a warmer than average pattern here. Ridge extending into the Northeast with trough near the SW or near the West Coast. 

El Nino P 7 December 

General  P 7 December

 

Most of the ensembles are showing this to the end of the there runs today 

[WX-PA]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe a chance next week with the deeply negative NAO and AO .

Nothing like being optimistic especially on this board.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

By the 20th we'll be in phase 8..I know phase 8 is cold..so that sets up some wintry weather the week of Christmas..extending into January with 1 or 2, if MJO is the only indicator.. Of course their other factors.

That is probably rushing things. I think MJO 7 could linger on the VP anomaly charts until the 20th to 25th with such warm waters and forcing near the Dateline. Remember, there is a lag with the MJO and the pattern after it goes through the warm phases. So even if it can make to 8 by Christmas, it could take until early January to get a better pattern. That being said, it’s possible the MJO stalls in 7 and doesn’t  make it fully into 8 like we saw several times in recent years. But that won’t be known for sure until we get later into December. 

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That is probably rushing things. I think MJO 7 could linger on the VP anomaly charts until the 20th to 25th with such warm waters and forcing near the Dateline. Remember, there is a lag with the MJO and the pattern after it goes through the warm phases. So even if it can make to 8 by Christmas, it could take until early January to get a better pattern. That being said, it’s possible the MJO stalls in 7 and doesn’t  make it fully into 8 like we saw several times in recent years. But that won’t be known for sure until we get later into December. 

Only to loop back into 3/4 or we don’t get a true p8 response because of other Nina factors 

[MJO812]

Weeklies are still looking good near the holidays and early January .

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Only to loop back into 3/4 or we don’t get a true p8 response because of other Nina factors 

Yeah, it’s been pretty tough waiting for MJO 8s in recent years only to get pushed back or not deliver. We have seen those P7 stalls or loops back missing out on 8. Or the actual MJO 8s like last March with the interior Northeast cashing in on record snows and nothing for the coast. Unfortunately, winters since 18-19 have been defined by unusually hostile Pacific patterns with a raging Pacific Jet into the West Coast dropping the trough in the West. 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s been pretty tough waiting for MJO 8s in recent years only to get pushed back or not deliver. We have seen those P7 stalls or loops back missing out on 8. Or the actual MJO 8s like last March with the interior Northeast cashing in on record snows and nothing for the coast. Unfortunately, winters since 18-19 have been defined by unusually hostile Pacific patterns with a raging Pacific Jet into the West Coast dropping the trough in the West. 

yep we got the good pattern to finally show up last March but too late in the season for most-white rain here from the 2 big storms while western MA had 20-30 inches

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Only to loop back into 3/4 or we don’t get a true p8 response because of other Nina factors 

The MJO isn't looping back and the wave is progressive .Making silly statements isn't going to make it happen.

Sorry

[JustinRP37]

One thing I have noticed lately is how much this forum relies on the MJO. The MJO really is not the sole indicator and probabilities are fairly low with how it can be used to couple with snowstorms or even across the area. After the first week of December we look to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA, but I have not seen that brought up once. Ski forums are rightly excited for how this season has gotten off and appears to look leading into the holidays. 

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

One thing I have noticed lately is how much this forum relies on the MJO. The MJO really is not the sole indicator and probabilities are fairly low with how it can be used to couple with snowstorms or even across the area. After the first week of December we look to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA, but I have not seen that brought up once. Ski forums are rightly excited for how this season has gotten off and appears to look leading into the holidays. 

dude seriously. i get it plays a very crucial role in winter forecasting but to some degree this december thread has turned into 4 pages of mjo related rants. im not denying its significance, cause it can easily land in phase 8 but at the same time we could get shafted with a +NAO or something. lets just hope it all pans out for us at somepoint

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

One thing I have noticed lately is how much this forum relies on the MJO. The MJO really is not the sole indicator and probabilities are fairly low with how it can be used to couple with snowstorms or even across the area. After the first week of December we look to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA, but I have not seen that brought up once. Ski forums are rightly excited for how this season has gotten off and appears to look leading into the holidays. 

People expect too much on the coast....we are lucky to get 3 inches in Dec...Jan/Feb/Mar better odds for the coast

[Fantom X]

I'm visiting LI next week. Hope to see some flakes!

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

One thing I have noticed lately is how much this forum relies on the MJO. The MJO really is not the sole indicator and probabilities are fairly low with how it can be used to couple with snowstorms or even across the area. After the first week of December we look to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA, but I have not seen that brought up once. Ski forums are rightly excited for how this season has gotten off and appears to look leading into the holidays. 

Our sensible weather patterns rely heavily on tropical convection which drives the Rossby wave patterns. MJO and ENSO along with increasing marine heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics are another big factor. This understanding has been growing in recent years with numerous papers posted on the MJO slowing down and becoming more amplified in the warmer phases. The main culprit is the expanding WPAC warm pool. This has also been driving the increase in multiyear La Ninas referenced in other papers. We seldom miss an opportunity for warmth when the MJO slows in phases 4-7. There are also papers on favorable snow phases for the Northeast  in the MJO 8-1-2 phases. It’s no coincidence that the greatest snowstorm over 30” in spots last March occurred with the strong MJO 8 passage. Unfortunately for us, we have been missing out on MJO 8 windows in recent years as the signal has frequently weakened or stalled before those phases. The MJO can also induce SSWs and cause the NAO to go positive or negative. Several well written  and researched papers on that topic also. So as the science progresses, we are understanding the importance how the warming oceans are altering our climate. We also got a primer in recent years on how we need the Pacific on our side even we get a good -NAO -AO pattern. So we really can’t take for granted anymore that the -NAO or -AO will deliver for us without the Pacific backing off and cooperating. 

[snowman19]

Weeklies are still looking good near the holidays and early January .

Kind of hard to get cold when all the arctic air is on the complete opposite side of the pole….

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Kind of hard to get cold when all the arctic air is on the complete opposite side of the pole….

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

 

BAM who flip flops like fish out of water lol Anyway, how exactly is it going to get arctic cold here by late December when all of the arctic air is on the total other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia at that point??? I don’t care if the NAO is -10. Please explain that one to me. That should be a real good trick

[WX-PA]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our sensible weather patterns rely heavily on tropical convection which drives the Rossby wave patterns. MJO and ENSO along with increasing marine heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics are another big factor. This understanding has been growing in recent years with numerous papers posted on the MJO slowing down and becoming more amplified in the warmer phases. The main culprit is the expanding WPAC warm pool. This has also been driving the increase in multiyear La Ninas referenced in other papers. We seldom miss an opportunity for warmth when the MJO slows in phases 4-7. There are also papers on favorable snow phases for the Northeast  in the MJO 8-1-2 phases. It’s no coincidence that the greatest snowstorm over 30” in spots last March occurred with the strong MJO 8 passage. Unfortunately for us, we have been missing out on MJO 8 windows in recent years as the signal has frequently weakened or stalled before those phases. The MJO can also induce SSWs and cause the NAO to go positive or negative. Several well written  and researched papers on that topic also. So as the science progresses, we are understanding the importance how the warming oceans are altering our climate. We also got a primer in recent years on how we need the Pacific on our side even we get a good -NAO -AO pattern. So we really can’t take for granted anymore that the -NAO or -AO will deliver for us without the Pacific backing off and cooperating. 

A strong nino in December..Not a shock that December will be above normal temp wise. Hopefully we can squeeze some snow in before the end of the month.

[WX-PA]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

BAM who flip flops like fish out of water lol Anyway, how exactly is it going to get arctic cold here by late December when all of the arctic air is on the total other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia at that point??? I don’t care if the NAO is -10. Please explain that one to me. That should be a real good trick

It doesn't have to be bitterly cold to get snow in December.

[vegan_edible]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

BAM who flip flops like fish out of water lol Anyway, how exactly is it going to get arctic cold here by late December when all of the arctic air is on the total other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia at that point??? I don’t care if the NAO is -10. Please explain that one to me. That should be a real good trick

oh he back

[JustinRP37]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our sensible weather patterns rely heavily on tropical convection which drives the Rossby wave patterns. MJO and ENSO along with increasing marine heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics are another big factor. This understanding has been growing in recent years with numerous papers posted on the MJO slowing down and becoming more amplified in the warmer phases. The main culprit is the expanding WPAC warm pool. This has also been driving the increase in multiyear La Ninas referenced in other papers. We seldom miss an opportunity for warmth when the MJO slows in phases 4-7. There are also papers on favorable snow phases for the Northeast  in the MJO 8-1-2 phases. It’s no coincidence that the greatest snowstorm over 30” in spots last March occurred with the strong MJO 8 passage. Unfortunately for us, we have been missing out on MJO 8 windows in recent years as the signal has frequently weakened or stalled before those phases. The MJO can also induce SSWs and cause the NAO to go positive or negative. Several well written  and researched papers on that topic also. So as the science progresses, we are understanding the importance how the warming oceans are altering our climate. We also got a primer in recent years on how we need the Pacific on our side even we get a good -NAO -AO pattern. So we really can’t take for granted anymore that the -NAO or -AO will deliver for us without the Pacific backing off and cooperating. 

Yes thanks for this. I was more referring to how it seems, and only on this forum, that winter is canned if the MJO is unfavorable. MJO is a part of the piece. About 5 years ago we were going on about the Siberian snow advance, only to find out that that dissertation really did not pan out well at all. Ocean warming is only accelerating and going to increase more. One doesn't have to go back too far in time to find the infamous slogan of "the solution to pollution is dilution". Man once thought the oceans to be so vast we cannot impact them. That is definitely not true as we see with ocean rise and acidification. The heat also has to go somewhere.

That said, all I was trying to do was point out that 5 pages of MJO discussion is not conducive to the whole picture. It does play a role, but so far, where you would expect snow in late November in the northeast, there has been snow. I get people want it in their backyard, but that is not most of the forums climate. That doesn't mean this winter is trashed already. 

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Kind of hard to get cold when all the arctic air is on the complete opposite side of the pole….

 

 

 

 

Kind of funny to only be looking at anomalies as we approach the coldest time of the year. It is a warning sign to see a +6-10 models in the arctic on this side. The average for Utqiavik for December is -2 for a high and -14 for a low, add a +10 to that and you are still below zero at "night" where the sun never fully comes above the horizon. Still alarming, but doesn't spell the end of cold for us. We are definitely warming, but we aren't going snowless this decade, likely in my lifetime though.

[SnoSki14]

At least we have the memories of December snowstorms.

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At least we have the memories of December snowstorms.

can we at least wait until the month is over? jesus christ