Allsnow Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Reminds me of a cold season Norlun trough when we usually don’t know where it sets up until nowcast time. Exactly. This will bounce around until game time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Exactly. This will bounce around until game time The nam's kind of all alone. It will likely shift east soon or its going to be right but I have a feeling this is a LI CT special 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 30 minutes ago, wdrag said: I'll add my 2c at 5P... suggest mowing completed today. You may not like your soggy ground even on a rain free Sunday I84 corridor southward NJ-seNYS-SNE-LI. My guess is that NWS is waiting on any FFA because the GEFS/SREF/NAEFS are much more conservative than the GEPS-EPS 2-4" event and as you've all posted the iso 7" on highly resolved mesoscale guidance. Also, NWS may be holding off due to no ensemble guidance showing minor flooding which is because these river forecasts use the ensemble output which seems to me wayyy too low. More at 5P after mowing. Did my mowing last night - was pretty long after nearly 2 weeks. Last weekend's rain put me behind. Now need the Fall fertilizer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Upton’s QPF map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Thread on the flooding potential: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 6.13 inches of rain here from Saturday - Tuesday. If we get another 2 inches here, I'd be receiving more rainfall in one week than I had from the past three months. It's been bone dry here in the Pine Barrens this summer. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Still going. Over a foot Nassau suffolk border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 HRRR looks like it’s going a little east from 6z but that kind of rain would rival Aug 2011 and 2014 here. Hoping that’s way overdone. Edit-HRRR nails the city later on in the run. Would be an Ida type rain event except a little further east. Hoping it’s wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: HRRR looks like it’s going a little east from 6z but that kind of rain would rival Aug 2011 and 2014 here. Hoping that’s way overdone. Edit-HRRR nails the city later on in the run. Would be an Ida type rain event except a little further east. Hoping it’s wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 The 12z HRRR seems to be focusing the heaviest axis of rain East of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Still going. Over a foot Nassau suffolk border My goodness I hope this is incorrect. No one needs that much rain. Not good for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: My goodness I hope this is incorrect. No one needs that much rain. Not good for anyone It's likely that someone sees double digits just a question of where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z HRRR seems to be focusing the heaviest axis of rain East of the Hudson. IVT trough almost always ends up NE-could even end up further east with a RI/MA jackpot like the Euro has 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 The 12z NAM focuses the heaviest rain from NYC up thru Northern NJ and the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Last 4 nam runs. Definitely shifting the heaviest axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That shows 14-16” of rain over Bethpage/Farmingdale. That’s just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Last 4 nam runs. Definitely shifting the heaviest axis more starts firing up in snj though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That shows 14-16” of rain over Bethpage/Farmingdale. That’s just insane. I pray that this precipitation moves out to the ocean and people and their property are spared this type of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 3k NAM for tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: more starts firing up in snj though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No thank you. I’ll pray that’s wrong, otherwise it’s ark building time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Nams not backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 minute ago, uofmiami said: No thank you. I’ll pray that’s wrong, otherwise it’s ark building time. 100% agree with you-No one needs this. That being said, how many times has the "bullseye" been correct on these types of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 i have no idea where the band is going to set up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: 100% agree with you-No one needs this. That being said, how many times has the "bullseye" been correct on these types of storms? It can end up anywhere but the point is someone's going to get it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 im surprised we have no flood watches. even if its a narrow area they can always take them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Even half these amts will be bad given the saturated ground and amts of 4-6 inches in a fairly short period of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It can end up anywhere but the point is someone's going to get it Understood-I hope it moves out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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