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Central PA Autumn 2023


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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

No can do Jon, I'll be in Orlando at that time. My wife says she hasn't seen more than an inch in 2 years and we sure aren't about to extend that...

When you are down to certain levels, I agree...extension is just not enough.   1" is certainly nowhere near enough to plow. 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

This is a pic of Codorus this afternoon from the sw side on Black Rock road. The green area up to the distant shoreline is normally under several feet of water.

P.s. I  don't know why it won't let you see the pic without downloading.

20230913_133849 (1).heic 646.13 kB · 3 downloads

Not sure if you noticed but as posted earlier, Hagerstown airport is currently on track for their second driest year since 1899. 

 

Converted your photo

image.png.1742a4d29ba228d76b70ea7f3f246954.png

 

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It's probably fair to say that most of us want the Cansips winter forecast to be accurate. I don't know if anyone looked, but  according to the Cansips, we're going to have to get through more dry weather for the next 3 months with September the worst before we reach the promised land.

I mention this only in anticipation of prophetic cries of a failed oncoming winter.

cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

cansips_apcpna_month_us_2.png

cansips_apcpna_month_us_3.png

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22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's probably fair to say that most of us want the Cansips winter forecast to be accurate. I don't know if anyone looked, but  according to the Cansips, we're going to have to get through more dry weather for the next 3 months with September the worst before we reach the promised land.

I mention this only in anticipation of prophetic cries of a failed oncoming winter.

 

 

 

The dryness becomes less severe each day just due to less sun and heat evap.  With that said, man do we need a lot of rain down here.   Latest drought map shows D2 creeping back up toward PA (in WV and VA) with small pockets of D2 in Adams and Franklin that are too small to map per my contact at USGS.   Some level of drought designation in parts of 7 LSV counties. 

Northeast Drought Summary

A slow-moving low pressure system resulted in rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Central Appalachians and Northern Mid-Atlantic. A 1-category improvement was made to areas that received the heaviest precipitation (more than 1.5 to 2 inches) and there was a positive response among the indicators. Northern West Virginia missed out on this past week's precipitation and there was a small increase in moderate drought (D1) for that area. Based on NDMC’s drought blends, the drought impact for the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic was changed from “S” (short-term) to “SL” (short and long-term).

image.thumb.png.bf5fd10f902c6e47c14893536db6e2ed.png

 

image.png.2887718c42e9c7deec63108c13f5fb5a.png

 

 

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Many spots reached the 50's this morning. Normal highs and lows for mid-September range from highs in the mid-70's to lows in the mid-50's. We should see temps over much of the next week average a little below those levels and with no rain in sight. A beautiful stretch of weather in our future!
Records for today: High 92 (1915) / Low 36 (1975) / Rain 3.53" (1966)
image.png.bb05bdf3cb175ae2cb815dbf5d265cf5.png
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58 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The dryness becomes less severe each day just due to less sun and heat evap.  With that said, man do we need a lot of rain down here.   Latest drought map shows D2 creeping back up toward PA (in WV and VA) with small pockets of D2 in Adams and Franklin that are too small to map per my contact at USGS.   Some level of drought designation in parts of 7 LSV counties. 

Northeast Drought Summary

A slow-moving low pressure system resulted in rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Central Appalachians and Northern Mid-Atlantic. A 1-category improvement was made to areas that received the heaviest precipitation (more than 1.5 to 2 inches) and there was a positive response among the indicators. Northern West Virginia missed out on this past week's precipitation and there was a small increase in moderate drought (D1) for that area. Based on NDMC’s drought blends, the drought impact for the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic was changed from “S” (short-term) to “SL” (short and long-term).

image.thumb.png.bf5fd10f902c6e47c14893536db6e2ed.png

 

image.png.2887718c42e9c7deec63108c13f5fb5a.png

 

 

Just goes to show how difficult it is to have a drought in this state.

Looking at airport data only for the Pittsburgh area (AGC: 1935-1952; PIT: 1953-2023), this is the 20th driest year [out of 89 years]. Only three years so far in the 21st century have been drier to date (2009, 2016 and 2002), and, of those three, just one significantly drier (2002).

image.png.26933ad71a02c6a995fc72b5f49d12e3.png

It is also the sixth warmest (of the past 89 years):

image.png.902566e51267eafb4f6d3cd6af5333da.png

You would think with those statistics, it would at least be "abnormally dry."

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