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September Discobs 2023

George BM

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We just can't know yet.

Mount Holly AFD-

Beyond Friday, the main question becomes whether the ridging to our north will "relax" enough for the coastal low to our south to move northward bringing rain to our area over the weekend. If this does happen, rainfall amounts could be significant due to both the slow movement of the system and its potential of drawing in tropical moisture with PWATs around 2+ inches. Forecast models are still struggling though with both variability from one model update cycle to the next and between the different models. The 0z deterministic runs of the GFS and the GEM Global continue to allow the low to track far enough northward to bring the area significant rainfall and strong E/NE winds beginning Saturday lasting into Sunday while the 12z ECMWF was more surpressed keeping the low and its heaviest rainfall farther south. The 0Z ECMWF has trended farther north however. We did increase POPs above NBM (National Blend of Models) with this update as we`re thinking it`s likely that the system will bring rainfall at least as far north as the I-95 corridor by late Saturday into Saturday night. There is uncertainty though regarding time of arrival and of course amounts.

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