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Hurricane Idalia


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Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1000 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...1000 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are 
now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated 
minimum pressure based on surface observations is 964 mb (28.47 
inches). 

A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph 
(102 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Valdosta, 
Georgia.

An unofficial automated observing site at Madison High School in 
Madison, Florida, reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108 km/h). 


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 83.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ENE OF MADISON FLORIDA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

 

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 Some good news. Compared to the 5AM NHC forecast, it has weakened quite a bit more quickly than forecasted then. The 5AM had Idalia still with winds of 100 mph as of 2PM. But as of 1PM, winds were already down to 80.

 The 11AM had adjusted for this quicker weakening because it was already down to 90 then. This updated forecast had it weakening from 90 at 11AM to 75 at 8PM. But with it already down to 80 at 1PM, it appears that it is weakening even more quickly than the 11AM NHC forecast.

Edit: down to 75 at 2PM vs the 11AM still having 75 at 8PM

 

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16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Some good news. Compared to the 5AM NHC forecast, it has weakened quite a bit more quickly than forecasted then. The 5AM had Idalia still with winds of 100 mph as of 2PM. But as of 1PM, winds were already down to 80.

 The 11AM had adjusted for this quicker weakening because it was already down to 90 then. This updated forecast had it weakening from 90 at 11AM to 75 at 8PM. But with it already down to 80 at 1PM, it appears that it is weakening even more quickly than the 11AM NHC forecast.

 

The ERC just before landfall had a hand in a quicker spin down than first anticipated, and not the feared to be rapidly deepening thru landfall scenario. 

 

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1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Curious to see how close this can get to Savannah, as it looks like the main circulation itself may go right over the city.

43906d9b335ea4e952d8c9eb7c24362d.jpg

 Hopefully not. It appears that the center may be tracking inland of Savannah a decent amount, which would keep winds down somewhat vs how high they might have otherwise been. Combined with the quicker weakening vs NHC forecasts that I just posted about, that combination would be good news to keep winds down from how high it earlier appeared winds might get. I earlier thought outages would be widespread along with numerous trees down throughout the area. That may still end up being the case as winds are picking up and will get strong by late afternoon. But perhaps it won't be as bad as earlier feared.

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