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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2023 OBS Thread


JTA66
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8 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Keeping a close eye on Monday's severe wx threat for the I-81 and I-78 areas. Some models are extremely bullish on a tornado threat. I will be out chasing if some good supercells get going.

the straight line wind damage is a real big threat more than tornadoes. Would not be surprised that many tornado warnings could be simply issued for rotation on radar echos when  in realty they are simple straight line wind damage paths. Yesterday in Tn , reversing gust fronts happened. Talk about rare for straight line wind damage paths. Hail damage maybe a concern as updrafts become very severe too.

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A seasonably warm day on tap today to close out the weekend before wet weather moves in tonight through much of Tuesday. Some spots could see up to an inch or 2 of rain. Wednesday looks like the best day of the week before more unsettled weather arrives toward the end of the upcoming work week.
Records for today: High 104 (1918) / Low 46 (1957) /Rain 2.17" (1938)
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So how cool has the summer months of June and July been across Chester County PA? At East Nantmeal this is the 16th chilliest summer so far out of 130 years of data. At Glenmoore it is the 33rd coolest summer to date with 67 years of records and finally at KMQS Coatesville Airport it is the 3rd chilliest to date with only 16 years of records back to 2008. As you can see in the graph below the average temperature trend is clearly for cooler summers than in our past here in Chester County.

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35 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Problem with tomorrow's severe potential is it projects as two rounds, one will be early in the morning and the second is after sunset.

 

Also, almost always the first round always robs energy from the second round it has happened this year a few times already.  I would expect the energy robbing will be problematic also cloud debris could be another issue.

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6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Started raining here about an hour ago, got about 0.08" so far. With the better returns getting closer, the breeze is picking up nicely. Feels nice and active out, lol. 72F here at the moment.

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Definitely enjoying the cooler start to August this year. We've got .17" in the bucket thus far tonight.

Though it seems the recent "maintenance" on WU has broken some things:

 

VoQMm9n.png

 

This really pisses me off. I really need to come up with an offline solution for data-logging. 

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18 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Also, almost always the first round always robs energy from the second round it has happened this year a few times already.  I would expect the energy robbing will be problematic also cloud debris could be another issue.

Hit the nail on the head with this statement. The 2-3 inches of rain called for on Monday from yesterday morning has quickly dwindled to less than one inch.  I am so tired of this crap.  Stratified debris  cloud cover again this morning with less than .25 of rain last night.  The street is already dry.  If the sun comes out this afternoon, we will get a solid line of severe t- storms but no where near 2-3 in of training t storms precip. Again  and even MT Holly brought it up in this mornings discussion, the convective nature from last nights showers were negligent. It seems  that lighting does NOT want to happen during the night in our forecast area this year.

 

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It looks like more showers and t-storms will be around after 5pm this evening - some of the storms could be severe. The weather turns nicer for midweek before we see shower chances return for both Thursday and Friday.
Records for today: The all-time record high was set today back in 1918 at 107 degrees / Record low 49 (1997) / Record Rain 1.58" (1913)
image.png.c44512f0e6959262eeb7a68239a92509.png
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4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:
It looks like more showers and t-storms will be around after 5pm this evening - some of the storms could be severe. The weather turns nicer for midweek before we see shower chances return for both Thursday and Friday.
Records for today: The all-time record high was set today back in 1918 at 107 degrees / Record low 49 (1997) / Record Rain 1.58" (1913)
image.png.c44512f0e6959262eeb7a68239a92509.png

I am thinking most severe weather is going to be SW Chester County points South and West.  A few severe storms capable of producing tornadoes could sneak into southern and southwestern Delaware County into points south and west. 

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21 minutes ago, Newman said:

One of the most intense severe weather days predicted in like 10 years. Wish I was back east to experience it. Y'all are in for some wild weather today. Enjoy it and stay safe

At least here in Philly, that's if the sun comes out.  It's still overcast and in the 70s (at least where I am in NW Philly).

I finished up with 0.67" from that overnight/early morning round and it's currently a steamy 74 with dp 72.

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MT holly mentioned that there's concern that the stronger convection to the south of us robs potential convection to the north and I agree with that thinking. Guidance is currently split on whether intense convection makes it into the region later on. I think the bust potential is unusually high today.

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

MT holly mentioned that there's concern that the stronger convection to the south of us robs potential convection to the north and I agree with that thinking. Guidance is currently split on whether intense convection makes it into the region later on. I think the bust potential is unusually high today.

I really think the main threat is perhaps SW Delaware County Points south.  We already have a stabilizing feature here now with these clouds from about Central Delaware County points east and northeast with all the cloud cover.  These low clouds were showing signs of burning off at 7 am but there are firmly entrenched for now.  

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