June 2023

[SACRUS]

 

6/18

EWR: 85
ACY: 84
New Brnswck: 83|
BLM: 83
PHL: 83
TEB: 82
JFK: 82
TTN: 81
LGA: 80
ISP: 80
NYC: 80
 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will be another fair day. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through at least Friday. Warmer conditions could begin to develop during the following weekend, but there is considerable uncertainty.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included:

Austin: 106° (old record: 105°, 2011)
Corpus Christi: 96°
Cotulla: 111° (old record: 108°, 2011)
Del Rio: 111° (old record: 106°, 2011) ***Missed June and all-time record by 1°***
Falcon Lake: 117° (old record: 109°, 2017) ***New all-time record***
Houston: 99°
Junction: 105° (tied record set in 2011)
Laredo: 108°
San Angelo: 102°
San Antonio: 103°
Zapata: 112° (old record: 106°, 1998)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -26.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.105 today.

On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.013 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.408 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

[psv88]

Today was a perfect day. Can’t write it better than this. 
 

Lloyd Harbor around 6 pm

 

[Rtd208]

Things look pretty wet going forward. Plenty of showers/thunderstorms beginning late week and beyond. The rest of the month as a whole looks much wetter. We'll see what happens.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    74degs.(66/82) or near Normal.

Month to date is   68.5[-1.5].      Should be     70.2[-1.0] by the 27th.

Reached 84 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:    78-82, wind e., variable clouds, 65 tomorrow AM.

68*(70%RH) here at 7am{was 67 at 6am}.     70* at 8am.      72* at Noon.       Back to 70* at 1pm.      73* at 3pm.       77* at 4pm.     78* at 5pm.

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Things look pretty wet going forward. Plenty of showers/thunderstorms beginning late week and beyond. The rest of the month as a whole looks much wetter. We'll see what happens.

Starting Friday 

[SACRUS]

72/60 and mostly sunny.  Likely the sunniest / driest day in the  next 8 or 9.  Low mid 80s.  Clouds and some spotty showers Tue (6/20) and Wed (6/21) should keep temps in the 70s.  Ridge builds from Southern Plains /TX into the Gl and southern Canada and weakness closes off into the Carolinas. A strong onshore flow develops Tue - Thu (6/22)Maritime (June gloom).

Fri (6/23) - Thu (6/29) transition from our Southern California climate to a more humid as flow goes southerly and daily chances of popup (slow moving ) storms.  As a whole the 7 days should get the are upwards of 2 inches of rain but areas with drenchers could exceed 4 inches.  When the sun pop out it heats up quickly with 850s > 16C and southerly flow.

 

Beyond there front looks to clear by the end of the month and bring in the warmer /hotter weather to open the month.  Tendency for troughing into the east till then as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west.  Do we have a 2006, 2012  / 2013 style summer shaping up?

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 102 (1994)
LGA: 97 (1994)
NYC: 98 (1994)


Lows:

EWR: 53 (1954)
NYC: 52 (1920)
LGA: 56 (2022)

Historical:

 

1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis."

1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum)

1938 - A cloudburst near Custer Creek, MT, (near Miles City) caused a train wreck killing forty-eight persons. An estimated four to seven inches of rain deluged the head of the creek that evening, and water flowing through the creek weakened the bridge. As a result, a locomotive and seven passenger cars plunged into the swollen creek. One car, a tourist sleeper, was completely submerged. (David Ludlum)

1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was a warm June day, with plenty of thunderstorms east of the Rockies. Lightning knocked out power at Throckmorton, TX, and ignited an oil tank battery. A woman in Knox City TX was struck by lightning while in her car, and a man was struck by lightning near his home in Manatee County FL. Strong thunderstorm winds overturned several outhouses near Bixby OK, but no injuries were reported. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the central U.S. for Father's Day. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Severe thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin produced softball size hail near River Falls WI, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Menomonie WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as searing heat spread from the southwestern deserts into the High Plains Region. Record highs included 98 degrees at Billings, MT, 107 degrees at Valentine, NE, and 112 degrees at Tucson, AZ. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - What would eventually be known as the "Inland Hurricane" stuck south central Kansas. This storm system produced a swath of 65 to 120 mph winds across six counties and caused $80 million dollars in damage. The peak recorded wind gust was 116 mph, which reaches low-end category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind intensity scale. On the enhanced Fujita Scale the 116mph winds would be rated an EF2. The storm knocked out power to all the Wichita TV stations, and they were off the air for hours. All but one of the Wichita Radio Stations, including the Wichita NOAA Weather Radio Station KEC-59, was knocked off the air. (National Weather Service Wichita)

 

2006 - Up to 11 inches of rain fell in the Houston, Texas area, causing widespread flash flooding. The Houston Fire Department rescued more than 500 people from flood waters, but no serious injuries or fatalities were reported.

[vegan_edible]

please tell me we'll actually see the sun this summer. this gloomy stuff can go whenever. 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

please tell me we'll actually see the sun this summer. this gloomy stuff can go whenever. 

I see sun right now

[CIK62]

The GFS shows how to end the month with normal precipitation as it catches up to where it should be by ruining a whole week.

Last week it had all 90's starting the 22nd.---as I pointed out.     Now its all Wet.  

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

please tell me we'll actually see the sun this summer. this gloomy stuff can go whenever. 

it's clear here and I'm 25 miles from you

[Wxoutlooksblog]

50 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The GFS shows how to end the month with normal precipitation as it catches up to where it should be by ruining a whole week.

Last week it had all 90's starting the 22nd.---as I pointed out.     Now its all Wet.  

There are so many things now going against a hot summer here. Firstly the models almost all agree on varying depth of an upper low in the northwest Atlantic. One after another we see disturbances moving in off of the Pacific, the jet stream about 400-500 south of where it normally is during the summer months. And as for the ridge out west, it really looks as though it's mostly going to stay there. Now to the south of us, it's a different story as from time to time pieces of the ridge break off and move east but they are mostly suppressed south of the NYC Metro with the upper low over the northwest Atlantic dominating NYC points north and east for the majority of the time, and if not temporary HP onshore winds and marine layers. Meanwhile, fronts look as though they'll get stuck right over us bringing at times above normal cloudcover, showers and storms and sometimes rain. I am thinking 15 or fewer 90+ days at the Park and fewer than 10 wouldn't shock me. Enjoy!

WX/PT

[Stormlover74]

Euro continues the wet theme for late week into next week

 

[Rtd208]

43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro continues the wet theme for late week into next week

 

Yeah we are going to be heading into a very wet period from late Thursday/Friday into next week with plenty of showers and thunderstorms. Those are some pretty impressive 10 day amounts on the Euro especially down in VA.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Yeah we are going to be heading into a very wet period from late Thursday/Friday into next week with plenty of showers and thunderstorms. Those are some pretty impressive 10 day amounts on the Euro especially down in VA.

That Midwest/Ohio Valley trough is ideal for us to get plenty of rain/tstorms this time of year 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will be another fair day. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through at least the coming weekend.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 5 pm CDT included:

Austin: 103°
Corpus Christi: 97°
Cotulla: 114° (old record: 109°, 2019)
Del Rio: 107° (old record: 106°, 1996 and 2011)
Houston: 100°
Junction: 106° (old record: 104°, 2011) ***Tied June record of 5 105° or above days***
Laredo: 114° (old record: 112°, 2011)
San Angelo: 111° (old record: 109°, 1908) ***New June record, tied all-time record***
San Antonio: 104° (old record: 103°, 1918 and 2011)
Zapata: 114° (old record: 107°, 1998)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -19.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.127 today.

On June 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.610 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.014 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.8° (1.0° below normal).

 

[forkyfork]

high dewpoints and flooding oh my

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

high dewpoints and flooding oh my

Stalled front getting enhanced by tropical moisture ?

[jm1220]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will be another fair day. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through at least Friday. Warmer conditions could begin to develop during the following weekend, but there is considerable uncertainty.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included:

Austin: 106° (old record: 105°, 2011)
Corpus Christi: 96°
Cotulla: 111° (old record: 108°, 2011)
Del Rio: 111° (old record: 106°, 2011) ***Missed June and all-time record by 1°***
Falcon Lake: 117° (old record: 109°, 2017) ***New all-time record***
Houston: 99°
Junction: 105° (tied record set in 2011)
Laredo: 108°
San Angelo: 102°
San Antonio: 103°
Zapata: 112° (old record: 106°, 1998)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -26.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.105 today.

On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.013 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.408 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

Times like this I'm glad I don't live there anymore and have to deal with that. Any heat we get-a summer down there is absolute hell. And the years I was there-2015 and 16, the horrendous summer was bookended by record rain and flooding in both May 2015 and Oct. I did pick an interesting weather time to be there.  

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That Midwest/Ohio Valley trough is ideal for us to get plenty of rain/tstorms this time of year 

Good. Definitely can still use it. 

[SACRUS]

 

6/19

 

PHL: 87
ACY: 84
TTN: 84
TEB: 82
New Brnswck: 81
NYC: 81
EWR: 80
LGA: 79
ISP: 77
JFK: 77
BLM: 75

[Rtd208]

The 00z GFS continues the wetter theme beginning late week lasting well into next week. It actually looks like it brings in showers and thunderstorms as early as Thursday now.

[Rtd208]

Pretty good discussion from Mt.Holly on the rain and thunderstorm potential over the next several days beginning Thursday.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Following a record dry May and a fairly dry start to June, the
northern mid-Atlantic is looking at an extended period of warm,
humid and rather wet weather for the end of the week, the
weekend, and even into next week. The flow throughout much of
the atmosphere will become well-aligned from the south, and
remain that way for much of the long term forecast period. Cut-
off low pressure over the Southeast US will only slowly lift
northward toward the Great Lakes, then drift eastward across our
region over the weekend. Meanwhile, longer range model guidance
is tentatively in good agreement of another fairly strong
upper-level trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies
toward the Great Lakes early next week. That system may amplify
as it settles into the long wave trough set up along the East
Coast, reinforcing warm, moist southerly flow across our region.
The airmass from Friday through the weekend looks quite
convective, and showers/t-storms will tend to be enhanced with 
daytime heating, particularly if there is any sunshine. While
it will not rain all the time, and any one day through this
period does not look anomalously moist for June, the pattern
will be capable of producing heavy rain, particularly with any
training convection or when the flow aloft weakens. Despite the
drought in some parts of our region, flooding may become an
issue particularly next week if this pattern comes to fruition
and the ground becomes more saturated. 

&&

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The 00z GFS continues the wetter theme beginning late week lasting well into next week. It actually looks like it brings in showers and thunderstorms as early as Thursday now.

Euro/EPS are quite wet last 10 days of June

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    74degs.(67/81) or near Normal.

Month to date is   68.7[-1.7].      Should be    70.2[-1.2] by the 28th.

Reached 78 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  73-78, wind e., m. cloudy, 61 tomorrow AM.

67*(83%RH) here at 7am{was 66 at 6am}.      70* at 9am.      72* at 10am.       73* at 11am.      77* at 3pm.      79* at 4pm.        80* at 4:30pm, wind is dead.      Reached 82* at 5pm.      71* at 8pm.

[SACRUS]

 

67/59 and mostly cloudy.  Cooler NE/ENE flow the next 2 days.  Capped in the 70s today and Wed (6/21) but mainly dry.  Thu (6/22) begins a transition to a much more humid and wetter 9 days  as southerly flow envelops the area as we transition from the marine (So Cal style) influenced pattern to a more tropical one.  The next deluge to end a dry period is likely set to deliver >2 - 3 inches of rainfall  area wide with spots of >5 or 6 inches of rain  where the slow moving training storm develop.  The period looks cloudy but warm southerly flow can create warm to hot periods where and when  there are breaks of sun. But a very much different period from the vey sunny May incoming.

Beyond there,

As the trough and ULL lift out the EC by the end of the month, there is potential for a day or two of heat.  The next month opens with trough into the GL and warm southerly flow - should the flow flatten  with help from Western Atl Ridge expanding west, then a much warmer to hot pattern can develop.  The tendency for weakness under the ridge has been persistent (2013 was similar) 2003 as well.  Overall wetter and near normal / humid.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2012)
NYC: 98 (1923)
LGA: 98 (2012)

Lows:

EWR: 52 (1956)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 55 (1959)

 

Historical:

1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel)

1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph. 

[donsutherland1]

15 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Times like this I'm glad I don't live there anymore and have to deal with that. Any heat we get-a summer down there is absolute hell. And the years I was there-2015 and 16, the horrendous summer was bookended by record rain and flooding in both May 2015 and Oct. I did pick an interesting weather time to be there.  

I agree. It's brutal down there. I have some family and also friends in the Houston area. The combination of heat and humidity has been almost unbearable.

[winterwx21]

A lot of models now bring in the rain overnight wednesday night. I remember a couple days ago looking at the CMC and being surprised that it was bringing rain up into the area wednesday, since all other models had the rain staying south until the end of the week. It was slightly fast but it looks as if the CMC had the right idea bringing in the rain much earlier. 

Anyway I'm glad we're finally gonna bust out of this dry pattern. The ground here is already very dry again since we didn't get enough rain last week, so it's great that it looks likely that this pattern will deliver and give us the rain that we desperately need.