MANDA Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Canadian forest fires still raging. Smoke plume still widespread. North of our area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Just a namazing day 75/ 39 bright sunshine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Cmc pretty wet Saturday esp city east. Gfs much further east and keeps much of the area dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Cmc pretty wet Saturday esp city east. Gfs much further east and keeps much of the area dry Models flopping all over the place with this one-CMC went from driest to wettest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 A "HW Ending" for all---during last week of the month??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 As I said yesterday (and latest guidance has done little to change my mind) my expectations are low for beneficial rains this weekend. Especially from the city westward. The weekend threat is the only game in town. If we miss meaningful rain this weekend looks as though we have to wait until around or after the Memorial Day weekend. Have not looked at ensemble data last day or so but there was some decent support a few days back for a wetter end to the month. Hope so. Top soils are very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 52 minutes ago, MANDA said: As I said yesterday (and latest guidance has done little to change my mind) my expectations are low for beneficial rains this weekend. Especially from the city westward. The weekend threat is the only game in town. If we miss meaningful rain this weekend looks as though we have to wait until around or after the Memorial Day weekend. Have not looked at ensemble data last day or so but there was some decent support a few days back for a wetter end to the month. Hope so. Top soils are very dry. Yep...it's really dried out fast here-low humidity and high sun angle doing the dirty work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 A cooler air mass is now moving into the region. Fair but unseasonably cool conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week. Readings will warm during the weekend, but some rain is possible. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures could return to the 80s to close the month. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, the guidance has persistently suggested that the month will end with a somewhat warmer than normal average. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -20.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.646 today. On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.188 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.206 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 5/16 EWR: 83 BLM: 82 LGA: 81 New Brnswck: 80 PHL: 80 NYC: 79 TEB: 79 ACY: 79 TTN: 78 JFK: 78 ISP: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 To rain or not to rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 If GFS is correct we'd have record low rainfall this month heading into summer Thats not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Nice and chilly this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice and chilly this morning Hoodie time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(54/73) or -1. Month to date is 62.5[+1.3]. Should be 63.0[+0.6] by the 25th. Reached 79 here yesterday. Today: 62-66, wind nw.-breezy, p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM. 59*(48%RH) here at 7am. 57* at 7:30am. 55* at 8:30am. 59* at Noon. 61* at 2pm. 64*(26%RH) at 4pm. 66*(25%RH) at 5pm. No Rain and First HW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 32 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(54/73) or -1. Month to date is 62.5[+1.3]. Should be 63.0[+0.6] by the 25th. Reached 79 here yesterday. Today: 62-66, wind nw.-breezy, p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM. 59*(48%RH) here at 7am. 57* at 7:30am. No Rain and First HW: Horrible if true 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Horrible if true The euro just came in very wet so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Still a nasty smoke plume ongoing from Canadian forest fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: The euro just came in very wet so we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 Still raining at end of run 90 hrs....also NE forum noted ensembles are wet too. 12z NAM on the other hand is not wet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Still raining at end of run 90 hrs....also NE forum noted ensembles are wet too. 12z NAM on the other hand is not wet at all. Who the f*ck knows 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Who the f*ck knows Model mayhem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Rgem coming in fairly wet through Saturday evening and still raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 it feels like a late october day fall is just around the corner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If GFS is correct we'd have record low rainfall this month heading into summer Thats not good when was the last good summer for gardening? moderate temps and consistent rainfall... 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2023 Author Share Posted May 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem coming in fairly wet through Saturday evening and still raining Way west with the rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 I'm pulling for the rain this weekend. Hopefully we see something. We'll also be covering or taking in some plants tonight. Freeze watch up for my area. They're saying as low as 28, probably out in the Walpack area. From fires to freezes, and back again if we don't get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Way west with the rains Gfs still way east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Cmc looks wet like rgem. Ukie dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 hooray for weak systems with convective nuances 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Models cant even figure out a rainstorm now 3 days out? Pathetic 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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