Bubbler86 Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 3 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: .CLIMATE... -- Changed Discussion -- Monthly rainfall totals are below to well normal across central PA particularly over the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley. Current monthly total rainfall through 5/22 at Harrisburg (0.19"/-2.53") and Williamsport (0.44"/-2.31") would rank as the driest May on record. Mounting rainfall deficits and potential drought concerns will need to be monitored heading into June and Summer 2023. On a whole area view, this is the worst the forum has been during this time frame/going in to Summer next week since, 2018 at least. The CPC is a little more optimistic feeling: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 It was a private venue on a farm just outside of Mount Joy. Absolutely stunning setting down in a meadow. Was it lauxmont farms?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 Sun should be on the increase this afternoon with highs a couple degrees below yesterday and slightly below normal levels for late May. Much of the next week looks to average near to slighly below normal across the area. Best rain chances look like Saturday night through Monday...but it will not be a wash out for outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. Records for today: High 94 (1925) / Low 32 (1963) / Rain 2.02" (1989) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 58 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Was it lauxmont farms? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk No. I have been to Lauxmont a couple of times for weddings though. Beautiful scene overlooking the river. It's on the other side of the river just south of Wrightsville, whereas I was right by Mount Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 On 5/22/2023 at 10:55 AM, Bubbler86 said: I think a lot of us are in our 50's and 60's. I am in my 50's as well. I think ITT is too. Stephen/Carlisle is in his 60's I believe. I'm 63, turning 64 in October. Pretty sure @mahantango#1 is not the oldest. I remember a post awhile back from a guy in his 70's, but I think is a rare poster. BTW, month-to-date precip here in central Cumberland county is just 0.38". I got 0.11" over the weekend, and that was after sitting at 0.27" for a couple of weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 37 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I'm 63, turning 64 in October. Pretty sure @mahantango#1 is not the oldest. I remember a post awhile back from a guy in his 70's, but I think is a rare poster. BTW, month-to-date precip here in central Cumberland county is just 0.38". I got 0.11" over the weekend, and that was after sitting at 0.27" for a couple of weeks. I hope I'm not the oldest. Is there perks for being a senior weather enthusiast?? Asking for a friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 77 was my high. Can we have this allll summer?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, canderson said: 77 was my high. Can we have this allll summer?! How's about a 60 spot? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 In our great debate regarding our local climate admist our great drought lots of banter was exchanged regarding changes in our local rainfall. Some thought this drought was the new normal, others that our rainfall was feast or famine, along with various other theories. So I decided, on my day off today, to try to start answering that question. The weather station at kmdt has been in same place since 10/1/1991. So using NOAA climate viewer website I downloaded daily summaries specificaly regarding precipitation from 1/1/1992 through 12/31/2022, a good 31 years. I filtered out all dates below 0.01" qpf, then through a formula assigned each event a bin number, starting with 1 going through 21, associated with 0.25" stepwise increase up to 5", with last bin any events that produced 5"+ a year. Thus I know a table showing how many of each rainfall bin occurred in each year, qpf sum for each bin/each year along with average amounts. I will post tables tomorrow but in summary:- Rainfall events - the ratio of sum of all - we underestimate just how dry 1992-2001 was and just how wet 2002-2022 were. Comparing those time periods we on average have seen 12 more events per year since 2002 then we saw from 1992-2001- more events leads to more chance for big events. For events >1.00" the average yearly count from 1/1/92 through 12/31/2001 was 8.8. 1/1/02 through 12/31/2011 was 12. 1/1/2012 through 12/31/2022 was 10.7. I need to still look more in depth regarding distributions of the events greater than 1", but due to small numbers I might have to expand data set, but that involves ingesting numbers from previous official locations, like capital city. I also want to look more into month specific breakdowns. My best guess is that the only proven trend regarding precipitation I've seen is it has been raining more days and also more yearly. Probably not as extreme as it seems compared records from the whole official records going back to 1889 due to location changes and equipment sensitivity but still substantial. The raise in average low temperatures provide further proof of the increased moisture. Regardless of how many days it rains, the distribution is remarkably stable regarding what percentage of those events are above or below 1". A combination of increased moisture in atmosphere and rainy period has lead to those greater than 1" days producing more rain, maybe psychologically even more than substantially. This year has been a throwback to the 2001 and prior eras and the difference between this year, last year somewhat vs last 20 year and recentcy bias make a bad combination. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 2 hours ago, canderson said: 77 was my high. Can we have this allll summer?! I agree, let’s keep the temps this week all Summer! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 10 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: I hope I'm not the oldest. Is there perks for being a senior weather enthusiast?? Asking for a friend. Yup. You get to brag about walking to school, uphill, both ways, in 3 feet of snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 6 hours ago, Voyager said: Yup. You get to brag about walking to school, uphill, both ways, in 3 feet of snow... Um that didn't happen with me. But my grandfather did that. and his generation. He always told the stories about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 47 out right now...as we prepare for Frosty Thursday and Friday AM's in the Commonwealth. .SYNOPSIS... A mostly dry pattern will continue this week in central PA with little to no rainfall, comfortable days with low humidity, and cool/chilly nights. Rain chances are now limited to only Wednesday afternoon and evening. Near-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night in the northern tier could damage sensitive vegetation. Seasonable temperatures are forecast for Memorial Day weekend with a low chance of rain showers. Before that, heads up LSV! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 47 out right now...as we prepare for Frosty Thursday and Friday AM's in the Commonwealth. .SYNOPSIS... A mostly dry pattern will continue this week in central PA with little to no rainfall, comfortable days with low humidity, and cool/chilly nights. Rain chances are now limited to only Wednesday afternoon and evening. Near-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night in the northern tier could damage sensitive vegetation. Seasonable temperatures are forecast for Memorial Day weekend with a low chance of rain showers. Before that, heads up LSV! Is Pillow in the crosshairs for some action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 25 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Is Pillow in the crosshairs for some action? I bet you see some 30's if you mean cold? Rain seems scattered though that Nam depiction would be nice for SE LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Seesaw.....6Z GFS wetter for this weekend after a dry 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 On 5/22/2023 at 10:54 AM, Voyager said: So who is the oldest and youngest in our sub? I'm 55. I’m probably the old head coming in @ 67 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 On 5/22/2023 at 1:21 PM, canderson said: We can have a forum-wide walk across the Susky riverbed this July. Tell me about, probably going to quite running a few spots. Getting down to about a foot of water. Morning coffee partner. Currently bedded down. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 MDT keeps the BN trend going standing at -2.1 for the month right now with 13 days BN and 10 AN. The big difference is the AN normal days have mostly been minimal with only one day more than 4 AN. BN wise there have been 8 days of departures of 4 degrees or more. Could see a double-digit BN departure tomorrow and maybe another one this weekend if the slow moving ULL does make its presence known. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: MDT keeps the BN trend going standing at -2.1 for the month right now with 13 days BN and 10 AN. The big difference is the AN normal days have mostly been minimal with only one day more than 4 AN. BN wise there have been 8 days of departures of 4 degrees or more. Could see a double-digit BN departure tomorrow and maybe another one this weekend if slow moving ULL does make its prescence known. Cool mornings, man. For the past many years it just hasn't cooled off at night from May to September. This month we are and it really really makes a massive difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Given the prospects of moisture from the late weekend storm seemingly looking less and less, I really hope something materializes with this line moving through this evening. The Mesos are pretty mixed. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 22 minutes ago, canderson said: Cool mornings, man. For the past many years it just hasn't cooled off at night from May to September. This month we are and it really really makes a massive difference. Cool mornings and the warmer highs are just barely over normal. MDT has only hit 80 one time this month with a chance they get no more until June though today is probably the best chance to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Lows this morning 46.5 were running 8 to 10 degrees below normal levels this AM. Those relatively chilly overnights look to continue over the next few nights. Today will feature above normal temps well into the 70's before we cool back down to below normal both Thursday and Friday. A chance of some showers looks to work it's way into the area by Sunday but best chances will be southeast of Chester County. Records for today: High 91 (1964) / Low 30 (1956) / Rain 1.36" (1930) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Interesting weather fact - Philadelphia International Airport had 22 days over 90 degrees last year in just August and September of last summer. Here in East Nantmeal Township (just 30 NM west of PHL airport )I have recorded 22 days over 90 degrees in the last 10 summers combined!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Interesting weather fact - Philadelphia International Airport had 22 days over 90 degrees last year in just August and September of last summer. Here in East Nantmeal Township (just 30 NM west of PHL airport )I have recorded 22 days over 90 degrees in the last 10 summers combined!! Canderson is going to furiously type up a reply to this. LOL. Harrisburg Heat island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Canderson is going to furiously type up a reply to this. LOL. Harrisburg Heat island Ha! No idea how many 90+ days we had last year but it feels like ~22 is right for us. You know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Ha! No idea how many 90+ days we had last year but it feels like ~22 is right for us. You know? Quick count (so do not quote me) is 15 in Aug and Sept which was the time of the info above, 32 for 2022 as a whole and 4 last May! The lows may be lower this year but so are the highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 29 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Interesting weather fact - Philadelphia International Airport had 22 days over 90 degrees last year in just August and September of last summer. Here in East Nantmeal Township (just 30 NM west of PHL airport )I have recorded 22 days over 90 degrees in the last 10 summers combined!! Good stuff. It's amazing what a little elevation and lack of UHI can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Good stuff. It's amazing what a little elevation and lack of UHI can do. I am over 800 feet and would guess I have had forty plus 90-degree days over the last 4 years alone. Last year was slow though. I racked up the totals the 3 years prior Elevation does not always win. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 GFS still teasing a rainy Sunday though a sharp cut off to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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