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Central PA Spring 2023


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52 minutes ago, TimB said:

That’s the other thing. Actual extreme heat in western vs. central PA looks different. 97 and above isn’t uncommon at MDT, and in fact recently seems to occur in as many summers as it doesn’t. PIT has only reached 97 in one summer (2012) since 1995.

A lot of that is just elevation. MDT is 300 feet ASL, whereas PIT is 1200 feet ASL. Temperatures decline about 3-4 degrees, per 1000 feet rise. If records were still taken downtown (700-ish feet, plus UHI), there probably would be a handful of additional 97 degree readings in that timeframe.

MDT also benefits from being downwind of the mountains, so downsloping effects can even enhance these differences on the hottest days.

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17 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

7 of the 10 driest Mays followed up with at least 3.5" of rain in June. What's weird is the combo of dry and bn Temps we have had. That's even more rare.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

The combination of drought, unseasonable frosts, smoky skies and brilliant sunrises and sunsets is somewhat reminiscent of 1816. Not saying we're going to have a year without a summer this year.

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20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The combination of drought, unseasonable frosts, smoky skies and brilliant sunrises and sunsets is somewhat reminiscent of 1816. Not saying we're going to have a year without a summer this year.

Interesting trivia, the Year without a Summer, due to a Volcanic eruption, resulted in the writing of Frankenstein and may be the reason the bicycle was invented. 

 

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/mount-tambora-and-year-without-summer#:~:text=Snow fell in New England,The Year Without a Summer.”

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The combination of drought, unseasonable frosts, smoky skies and brilliant sunrises and sunsets is somewhat reminiscent of 1816. Not saying we're going to have a year without a summer this year.

Year without a summer is super interesting. Apparently it would sometimes be hot and then suddenly get super cold randomly. "Rapid, dramatic temperature swings were common, with temperatures sometimes reverting from normal or above-normal summer temperatures as high as 95 °F (35 °C) to near-freezing within hours."

It would also be very wet and damp feeling but chilly at the same time which is interesting

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Both the CMC and GFS would end the discussion of a record setting dry May (as depicted) when a whirling dervish low gets cut off over in the SE,  slowly moves up the coast and minors out.  CMC is less but probably enough to get us out of record territory.  To the surprise of no one, Memorial Day is ditched sun and fun wise for many beach communities again. 

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17 minutes ago, canderson said:

Climate outlooks have us at 40-50% to have above average temps this summer.  I would put the over under at 90+ around 12 days. 
 

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/19/hot-summer-ahead-us-climate-outlook

His comments were Norm to slight above and less heat waves.  Early summer not really summer but drier and hotter late summer, 

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

His comments were Norm to slight above and less heat waves.  Early summer not really summer but drier and hotter late summer, 

I bet 1,000 posts MDT hits 90 12+ this year. We look set up for heat wave after wave imo as we get into middle June. And we’ve roasted for months and months (minus May thank god) 

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50 minutes ago, canderson said:

I bet 1,000 posts MDT hits 90 12+ this year. We look set up for heat wave after wave imo as we get into middle June. And we’ve roasted for months and months (minus May thank god) 

He did not comment on hitting 90, I was joking with my comment.   He only said less and shorter heat waves.  More of a normal summer.   If may can hold on for Bn that will be 3 of the last 8 months Bn.  Not great but not a 100 full on heatbox either. 

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51 for the low here...normal or slightly BN at MDT with 53.     Does MDT break out of their recent BN streak today?    Meso's suggest the front will be too slow and MDT will get to the required 77 to go AN today as they top out near 80.  On the GFS, back to BN tomorrow then another week near normal heading into the holiday. 

Today is the warmest day, high temp wise, on the entire GFS run.   The areas gets caught in a slow moving ULL as we move into Met Summer. 

image.thumb.png.d1ec36072cef15136cdf15f60ac73480.png

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29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

51 for the low here...normal or slightly BN at MDT with 53/54.     Does MDT break out of their recent BN streak today?    Meso's suggest the front will be too slow and MDT will get to the required 76 or 77 to go AN today as they top out near 80.  On the GFS, back to BN tomorrow then another week near normal heading into the holiday. 

Today is the warmest day, high temp wise, on the entire GFS run.   The areas gets caught in a slow moving ULL as we move into Met Summer. 

image.thumb.png.d1ec36072cef15136cdf15f60ac73480.png

You think that rain will advance north in Pa.?

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17 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

We can use the rain .46 so far this month.

3X what MDT has had. USGS has to be getting their crayons out to color up the LSV on the drought map next week if nothing big happens today.   This map is as bad as I have seen it (have not looked at it prior to moving back to PA).  It was probably worse before the April rain but did not check it. 

 

image.png.4dc9793b7fbbead4d84eb6ea2a4403d6.png

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