Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[IrishRob17]

53 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

coming to a january near you

 

Don't you worry, very shortly there will be a plethora of winter forecasts that will save our winter. Deep winter. 

[GaWx]

On 8/16/2024 at 12:36 PM, GaWx said:

@donsutherland1

 I have even more evidence of major flaws in the WeatherBell versions of the CFS: the following post examines the cold E US WB 0Z 8/16 CFS run maps for 8/16-20 with a focus on DC, which show a whopping 6.5 BN. That compares to the only 2 BN being forecasted by the DC NWS office!

 Also, I show a WB 0Z 8/16 CFS run map for 8/16-22, which shows a whopping 8BN at DC (other recent runs are similar) vs NN on the avg of the last 12 TT runs!

 Finally, I show a TT 12 run avg CFS Sep-Nov map with mainly AN E US for autumn, which I’m  comparing to cold autumn WB CFS maps that has been posted by the person I was responding to:

 

Followup showing that this WxBell CFS map was as expected significantly too cool at DC for 8/16-20:

 As the above WxBell map for 8/16-20 shows, it had DC and vicinity at 6.5 F BN. It ended up verifying at only 0.7/1.8 F BN at IAD/DCA, which is close to what the DCA NWS had predicted:

1. IAD: actual mean/1991-2020 normal mean

8/16: 75/76

8/17: 78.5/76

8/18: 80/76

8/19: 76/75.5

8/20: 66/75.5

So, 8/16-20: 75.1/75.8
 
 Thus IAD verified at only 0.7 F BN vs WB forecasted ~6.5 F BN.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLWX/2408170524.cdus41.IAD.html
—————————

2. DCA: actual mean/1991-2020 normal mean

8/16: 79.5/79.5

8/17: 79/79.5

8/18: 80/79.5

8/19: 80.5/79.5

8/20: 69.5/79.5

So, 8/16-20: 77.7/79.5

 Thus IAD verified at only 1.8 F BN vs WB forecasted ~6.5 F BN.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLWX/2408170524.cdus41.DCA.html

 This adds to the evidence that WxBell CFS maps have significant flaws in their map generating algorithms as TT CFS maps weren’t nearly as cool.

@donsutherland1

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

coming to a january near you

 

For us that might be next July

[IrishRob17]

Did @BxEnginefly to Dublin in time for kickoff or will be he chasing snow in Hawaii later in the week?

[uofmiami]

About to takeoff for big island and meet up with TS Hone.  

[BxEngine]

5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Did @BxEnginefly to Dublin in time for kickoff or will be he chasing snow in Hawaii later in the week?

I managed to miss an earthquake and a TS. Terrible timing lol

[forkyfork]

i'm in montreal and there's evidence of debby everywhere 

[Stormlover74]

Went from 80 to 92 before thunderstorms moved in

[Sunday 7:06am] - We just had a heat burst here in Wichita with a temp at 7 am of 92 degrees!

[Rtd208]

[Stormlover74]

Lol

 

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol

 

 

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol

 

18z rgem agreed

[Rjay]

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

18z rgem agreed

Wild

[Rjay]

11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wild

0z euro.  Lots of east to west (or ne to sw) moving complexes in midwest and the east coast.

 

 

[Pellice]

Question on upcoming drop in temperatures on Thursday.  With such a dramatic drop from the Wednesday high, why aren't we getting a front from the NW?  Particularly with a round of storms preceding it?  It looks as though it will be coming from the NE to E.  Are fronts dropping from the NE more likely at this time of year?

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, Pellice said:

Question on upcoming drop in temperatures on Thursday.  With such a dramatic drop from the Wednesday high, why aren't we getting a front from the NW?  Particularly with a round of storms preceding it?  It looks as though it will be coming from the NE to E.  Are fronts dropping from the NE more likely at this time of year?

Backdoor cold front. Usually a springtime thing

[Rtd208]

For entertainment purposes.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

For entertainment purposes.

So Columbus, OH might be Cold/Dry, Cold/Snowy, or Mild/Dry. K then. Also congrats Norfolk on the Mild/Snowy!

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So Columbus, OH might be Cold/Dry, Cold/Snowy, or Mild/Dry. K then. Also congrats Norfolk on the Mild/Snowy!

Let me check my Magic 8 Ball.

[Roger Smith]

Greetings, a reminder to regular NYC forecast contest entrants Sep contest is open, post before long weekend to avoid forgetting and late penalties. Enjoy your weekend. 

[Brian5671]

JB going warm and not much snow for the east this year-says MJO 4-5-6 will dominate again

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

JB going warm and not much snow for the east this year-says MJO 4-5-6 will dominate again

Wait what?? Lol

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

JB going warm and not much snow for the east this year-says MJO 4-5-6 will dominate again

 Thanks for letting us know as I had been unaware of this.

 It is refreshing to hear he’s going AN at all in the NE US initially. Going back to 2014-5 (as far back as can be seen when googling, which I just did for each year), I see only one other time he’s gone AN for DJF in the NE US but that was only initially:

- It was 2020-1, when he was ~+3:

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2020-21-outlook

 However, that was revised on 11/25/20 to NN:

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/final-winter-2020-21-forecast

 So, I can’t find even one year back to 2014-5 when he went and stayed AN DJF in the NE.

 Thus, the test will be to see if he actually holds onto the slightly AN.

 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for letting us know as I had been unaware of this.

 It is refreshing to hear he’s going slightly AN at all in the NE US initially. Going back to 2014-5 (as far back as can be seen when googling, which I just did for each year), I see only one other time he’s gone AN for DJF in the NE US but that was only initially:

- It was 2020-1, when he was ~+3:

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2020-21-outlook

 However, that was revised on 11/25/20 to NN:

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/final-winter-2020-21-forecast

 So, I can’t find even one year back to 2014-5 when he went and stayed AN DJF in the NE.

 Thus, the test will be to see if he actually holds onto the slightly AN.

 

He's probably not even warm enough-we've been averaging +2 to +2.5 in most of the winter months going back to 2015-16.  His mistake last year was not jumping ship once the January cold fizzled rather quickly.  At that point it was obvious to most we were cooked.   Instead he doubled down and called for big cold/snows which was ridiculous in the end.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's probably not even warm enough-we've been averaging +2 to +2.5 in most of the winter months going back to 2015-16.  His mistake last year was not jumping ship once the January cold fizzled rather quickly.  At that point it was obvious to most we were cooked.   Instead he doubled down and called for big cold/snows which was ridiculous in the end.

I’d love to see him both stick with warmer than normal and also get it right. It would help his long range winter forecasting reputation, which has been hurting recently, immensely.

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's probably not even warm enough-we've been averaging +2 to +2.5 in most of the winter months going back to 2015-16.  His mistake last year was not jumping ship once the January cold fizzled rather quickly.  At that point it was obvious to most we were cooked.   Instead he doubled down and called for big cold/snows which was ridiculous in the end.

1/15 was my date to bail, and usually is in a decent Nino. Since they’re usually backloaded you wait to see if things turn around, but it was clear by then it would be the same Nina mid latitude pattern just with more STJ influence and rain. The W PAC forcing has to end or be overcome somehow before we meaningfully change. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

1/15 was my date to bail, and usually is in a decent Nino. Since they’re usually backloaded you wait to see if things turn around, but it was clear by then it would be the same Nina mid latitude pattern just with more STJ influence and rain. The W PAC forcing has to end or be overcome somehow before we meaningfully change. 

I'd agree...and JB seems to see it too-until the PAC changes it's alot of MJO 4-5-6 which is mild and wet for us. On the flip side the Nina is weaker so that could work in our favor a bit.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd agree...and JB seems to see it too-until the PAC changes it's alot of MJO 4-5-6 which is mild and wet for us. On the flip side the Nina is weaker so that could work in our favor a bit.

I hope he holds onto his forecast this time and doesn’t bail to Wx Bell marketing and weenie related pressure. It is weaker than model consensus has it at this time, but Nino 3.4 has finally been steadily cooling recently with the help of a +SOI (finally). Also, keep in mind that the equivalent RONI is already near -0.7, solidly into weak Niña. It wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with a moderate RONI based peak.

[Roger Smith]

Not a forecast but interesting ... winters of 1931-32 and 1932-33 were very mild and snowless. Winter 1933-34 was very cold and snowy. It would be a good repeat. (Dec 1933 and Feb 1934 extreme cold, Jan 1934 near average).