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Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...


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14 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

So 6-7 days away…that means if I look downstream the system should be about here today, right? How come I don’t see anything- please advise.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

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He literally ranted for days that his rain was contaminated with chlorine and chemicals from the fire in Northeast Ohio which had occurred like 8 days earlier. 

It was a joke- I’ll do better explaining next time. Or you could trust his forecasting and weather understanding- up to you all.

 

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13 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

He literally ranted for days that his rain was contaminated with chlorine and chemicals from the fire in Northeast Ohio which had occurred like 8 days earlier. 

It was a joke- I’ll do better explaining next time. Or you could trust his forecasting and weather understanding- up to you all.

 

It’s all good. Have an edible. 

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that small improvement over the Pacific leads to a much larger improvement over the OH Valley... this is almost back to where we were at 12z yesterday

again, the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream

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It appears lesser and lesser likely that a solo 'big dawg' is going to emerge over the 12th/13th, despite the continuation of the over-arcing theme of the hemispheric outline - the signaling for the period of time is still shining. So we'll see if this is just 'pattern change' teen-ager angst in the models... heh

However, there's still a robust indication from all three, EPS/GEFS/GEPs, for cyclogenesis along the M/A during the 11-13th, it's just not likely from what this looks like at this time, ...to become more than medium impact. It's also not beyond the realm of possibility that a significant enough low is spawned and stem winds just too far S-E and we watch an 'eye' like feature with an impressive gyre on satellite from just too far away ... rotating yet farther beyond reach.

It's always a cruel lesson when something like that happens, because the signal is realized ...in full.

Anyway, it seems clear to me that there is destructive wave interference emerging out of this so far.  It is not beyond the realm of possibility that a solution like the GGEM's, which really doesn't perform with the leading (12th/13th) inject into the arena so well, in lieu of a much more impressive and meaningful impact cyclogenesis with that following - closer to the 13-14th as Heisy et al have observed of the 00z suite.  It's ensemble mean is tepid on that idea, however. 

Everyone's seen the GFS's last couple of cycles ...and it's opting for the series of systems - we mentioned at some point along the way ... these signals can end up multi -  to atone for this period of time. It really has 3 events there.  It's managed to figure a way to get to express its native progressivity bias in the midst of a slowing pattern... pretty amazing actually. 

While the Euro seems like it just caught up between the two in that destructive interference and ends up failing on both wave spaces. 

Meanwhile, the EPS/GEFs seem to agree more on the first wave space related cyclogenesis as dominant, but those solutions are too shallow to be objectively considered major events - even though there are some deep members. It's not exactly a raging storm vibe when the trend of those numbers has shrunk, as well as the spatial presentation of the mean.  It's seems likely to me that the ensemble means are also picking up on some negative interference. 

All and all ..it's not been a very friendly to winter enthusiasts, last 24 hours of guidance, as they are doing whatever is imaginable to construct the least realization out of what is suggestively still quite possible during the 10th through the ides of the month.   That's just the reality ...or my take on it as of this morning.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of an interesting model battle....GFS suite has been more amped while Euro suite has been a little suppressed. Often see it the other way around in these systems.

...when it was the EPS that first looked so impressive with all this back on those runs between the 3rd and 4th, too ... 

...the more I look at this, it seems like even though the Nina appears to be rapidly decaying as we type, there's still some momentum finger prints in the flow, and it's somehow physically interfering with the onset +d(PNA) ... It's in both the EPS and GEFs, a -1SD to 0 is a definitive mode adjustment, but it may just turn out too shallow in the end..  hmm

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So the models may have overdone western ridging For a few runs over a week out ..in a year with them continually having too high heights in SW at 7-10 day lead times related to general Nina influences . And now small differences in what’s left of a modeled PNA could determine if this is a solid moderate event or perhaps less

..thou I’m sure there is more at play here ..maybe if the vort Max was more of a beast that could make up for less of a +PNA for the area the energy traverses ?

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