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February 21-23 Major Winter Storm


Hoosier
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21 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Tough to get those amts without being near an ocean or without LES.

I'm not sure what you do as a forecaster right now.

Day after day prior to the storm we have excellent model agreement across the board showing a major, perhaps historic, storm. Even if you slow play the hell out of the messaging, eventually you have to alert the public to the potential. The modeling has been somehow horrendous but in lockstep. 

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I'm not sure what you do as a forecaster right now.
Day after day prior to the storm we have excellent model agreement across the board showing a major, perhaps historic, storm. Even if you slow play the hell out of the messaging, eventually you have to alert the public to the potential. The modeling has been somehow horrendous but in lockstep. 

I think MPX was conservative as long as possible. Unfortunately the models were still showing a historic storm by the time messaging needed to go out. What really sucks is the general public will never understand that.


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My power finally went out at 11:30 last night. Picked my son up this morning and noticed several large diameter branches down. Power lines covering the road in a few spots with caution tape. Couple branches have fallen on cars and destroyed them on my block. Lots of branches that have also managed to go through the roof and into peoples living rooms. Nasty storm. 
 

Also, lost a Paw Paw firefighter last night, he came in contact with a down powerline, and it was still live. Pretty sad. 

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7 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

The models are broken IMO. I don’t know how to fix them but they have all been quite bad for a long time.


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It goes to show we have a lot of advancements still needed that’s what I love about science. DTX being late to the ball game too. It is sad that most of the public won’t understand but I have nothing but mad respect for the meteorologists in those offices. Couldn’t imagine the pressure sometimes

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3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It seems Ice Accumulation around the Detroit area was generally in the 0.25" to 0.35" range.

Judging by the dte outage map, areas to the sw got it worse? Maybe the heavier rates actually helped in the metro? I think had it been a night-time event, would've been alot worse.

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8 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It seems Ice Accumulation around the Detroit area was generally in the 0.25" to 0.35" range.

If it was a tad colder and roads were cold it would have been catastrophic. Working for the power company here I can say there are many distribution lines would not handle a .75 event even the subtransmission lines would have major problems. Speaking from what I seen so far. A lot of the lines and poles down here are 40+ years in age and then account for maintenance that has not been done on lines in 4 years or so.Lots of rain glad it did not all accrete 

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44 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

There are some 16-19” reports starting to pop up in the central and south metro. I’m not sure I completely buy it but I guess the larger bands did favor the south metro more than the north. Maybe not a complete bust for everyone.


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Was about to post this. I don’t buy that 19” report but the 15-17” seems plausible given that area saw good banding from both waves. It’s still snowing fat dendrites here and I bet we have 13-14”

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Was about to post this. I don’t buy that 19” report but the 15-17” seems plausible given that area saw good banding from both waves. It’s still snowing fat dendrites here and I bet we have 13-14”

It’s impossible to get an accurate measurement with the blowing and drifting. I measured over 20” in one spot and then 6” right behind it. I’m gonna split the difference and go with 13-14” for me, maybe more. Still snowing decently up here as well.


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If it was a tad colder and roads were cold it would have been catastrophic. Working for the power company here I can say there are many distribution lines would not handle a .75 event even the subtransmission lines would have major problems. Speaking from what I seen so far. A lot of the lines and poles down here are 40+ years in age and then account for maintenance that has not been done on lines in 4 years or so.Lots of rain glad it did not all accrete 

In Auburn Hills we had a quarter inch. Didn’t really accrete until around 4pm then it just froze up on everything. No power and they are saying Sunday before restoration. Thankful for the generator! We always lose power so…. Plenty of gas was purchased before the event!


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My place just got up to 50 degrees with sunshine after narrowly missing the SE Michigan ice storm of last night. Really, it was 33 degrees with an accumulation of about 2" of rain here. It's strange how warm it is You would typically think it would be below freezing after a cold front.

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