El Nino 2023-2024

[qg_omega]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m still amazed at how the Euro weeklies went from this trend, which covers through the 12/24 run:

 

followed by the strongest signal for an early Jan major SSW (the 12/26 run), to the weakest signal for an early Jan major, the 12/28 run as noted in my post earlier this morning. Simply astounding!

Good lesson in the long range on models have no value, ensembles or operational.  Growing consensus can disappear on the next run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I actually think January should be a relaxed continuation of December. Still warm in the North, cooler South, but not 15F above average anywhere. There should be actual honest to goodness cold somewhere in the South in January.

I think you'll see some northward expansion of the southern cold at times into both the East and West, with alternating troughs. What CPC has for early January is pretty close to my outlook for January from October. Didn't really have a warm month. The CFS frames for Dec 26-28 look too warm to me for January.

Same page.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Good lesson in the long range on models have no value, ensembles or operational.  Growing consensus can disappear on the next run.

 I'd agree with your post if you changed one word, "no". I wouldn't at all say "no" value. That is simply not true. Your overall point of not relying on model output is understood but saying no value is hyperbole. Thus I still see plenty of value and thus will continue to follow and post model output.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Indeed and I sure hope so, but of course that’s assuming this latest prediction is going to be close to reality. It has tended to be too weak on more days than too strong overall from what I’ve been seeing and can recall. So, we’ll see whether or not it tends to correct in the stronger direction for January as a whole.

Technical SSW in one thing, but I am not concerned in the least about the general strength of the PV over the balance of this season. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 12/28/2023 at 9:12 AM, LibertyBell said:

nono I lived through the 80s it was entirely different, yes it was snowless, BUT, it was MUCH colder back then it is now and aside from 1983, the rainfall was MUCH less and the growing season was MUCH shorter thankfully much fewer allergies.

This is much more to do with the excessive rainfall and the much longer growing season and rising amount of allergies.  I'm seriously considering spraying everything with bleach to destroy this new "growth"

Yeah, this is what I’ve seen discussed recently on Reddit too. Mold and fungus everywhere. Also, weird bugs replacing the native insect populations.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Homesteading/s/tcUBi9rZtS

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, chubbs said:

I posted a chart s couple of weeks ago upthread which showed roughly 5F of winter warming at Detroit Metro Airport since it opened in 1958. Looks like many of us are in the same 5F boat.

LMAO. There it is again. "Since 1970". Imagine how boring these maps would be if they didnt start in the brutally cold winters of the 1970s?

Detroit winters warmed 5.0F from 1970-2023...but Detroit winters COOLED 4.0F from 1930-1980. I have seen countless graphs starting in 1970, but NEVER ONCE have I seen 1930-80.

 

From 1880-2020, Detroit winters warmed 1.6F

From 1921-2020, Detroit winters warmed 0.6F.

 

The rolling 100-year avg, 1924-2023, warmed 1.2F and the entire POR, 1874-2023, warmed 2.0F. You can check ANY of that data on X-macis, a site which uses all of the actual weather data in the period of record (not only since 1970). "Since 1970" has been used for years, and it will continue to be the go-to because it will always show the most extreme warming.

 

[snowman19]

Looks like the models that showed a final peak in January were correct. The slow decay should start by mid-January
 

[chubbs]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

LMAO. There it is again. "Since 1970". Imagine how boring these maps would be if they didnt start in the brutally cold winters of the 1970s?

Detroit winters warmed 5.0F from 1970-2023...but Detroit winters COOLED 4.0F from 1930-1980. I have seen countless graphs starting in 1970, but NEVER ONCE have I seen 1930-80.

 

From 1880-2020, Detroit winters warmed 1.6F

From 1921-2020, Detroit winters warmed 0.6F.

 

The rolling 100-year avg, 1924-2023, warmed 1.2F and the entire POR, 1874-2023, warmed 2.0F. You can check ANY of that data on X-macis, a site which uses all of the actual weather data in the period of record (not only since 1970). "Since 1970" has been used for years, and it will continue to be the go-to because it will always show the most extreme warming.

 

Relax, !970 is used because that's when net man-made climate forcing took off. Here is the whole NOAA analysis for the SE Michigan climate division. 1970 was warmer compared to the period before 1920 and about the same as the 1896-1950 baseline. You need to be careful using raw COOP data, the older data has a known warm bias.

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Relax, !970 is used because that's when net man-made climate forcing took off. Here is the whole NOAA analysis for the SE Michigan climate division. 1970 was warmer compared to the period before 1920 and about the same as the 1896-1950 baseline. You need to be careful using raw COOP data, the older data has a known warm bias.

I was using the official Detroit data, not a coop station. If anything temperatures are now taken in concrete laden areas when they use to not be. 1970s winters were exponentially harsher than Winters of any other decade of the 20th century here. Likewise, 2000s & 2010s winters were also harsher than winters of the middle third of the 20th century. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I'd agree with your post if you changed one word, "no". I wouldn't at all say "no" value. That is simply not true. Your overall point of not relying on model output is understood but saying no value is hyperbole. Thus I still see plenty of value and thus will continue to follow and post model output.

If i'm understanding right, models still show an SSW is likely, just not as strong as previously indicated?

[forkyfork]

On 10/6/2023 at 2:58 PM, forkyfork said:

be careful what you wish for

 

BUMP

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

BUMP

that’s likely a transient pattern though. i wouldn’t expect that to stick around like that for more than a week as the Aleutian Low develops

[Stormchaserchuck1]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that’s likely a transient pattern though. i wouldn’t expect that to stick around like that for more than a week as the Aleutian Low develops

That's what the ENSO analogs show https://ibb.co/xzVYnx5

But this El Nino so far has not really had much of an impact on the N. Pacific 500mb pattern so we'll see https://ibb.co/LxKM678

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

If i'm understanding right, models still show an SSW is likely, just not as strong as previously indicated?

No, they’re showing unlikely now.

[NEPASnow]

There is still a SSW, and a possible split still might occur, just not a reversal.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We are already hitting legit Stratosphere warming territory, as of Christmas

https://ibb.co/Htm37sB

12-27 is pretty strong 

https://ibb.co/MRc03C6

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

There is still a SSW, and a possible split still might occur, just not a reversal.

I agree. I assumed he was asking about a major SSW. The chance for that in early Jan has gone from very likely per EPS/GEPS to only slight on all 3 major ens.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I agree. I assumed he was asking about a major SSW. The chance for that in early Jan has gone from very likely per EPS/GEPS to only slight on all 3 major ens.

Do you think that models like the EPS are too programmed for it? In researching, I found that Stratosphere warmings in 10mb never exceeded +2500, and we are already at +1600 as of 12/27

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Do you think that models like the EPS are too programmed for it? In researching, I found that Stratosphere warmings in 10mb never exceeded +2500, and we are already at +1600 as of 12/27

The warming is still strong/impressive but the wind reversal hasn’t held. So, headed for a minor SSW it appears. It doesn’t matter how much warming there is.

 I don’t think models are preprogrammed to predict/biased toward a major SSW based on past cases like 2/16/23..

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, NEPASnow said:

There is still a SSW, and a possible split still might occur, just not a reversal.

 

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are already hitting legit Stratosphere warming territory, as of Christmas

https://ibb.co/Htm37sB

12-27 is pretty strong 

https://ibb.co/MRc03C6

 

44 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I agree. I assumed he was asking about a major SSW. The chance for that in early Jan has gone from very likely per EPS/GEPS to only slight on all 3 major ens.

Sorry I wasn't more clear. I meant any SSW, not major. My overall understanding of SSW is very minimal.

[chubbs]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was using the official Detroit data, not a coop station. If anything temperatures are now taken in concrete laden areas when they use to not be. 1970s winters were exponentially harsher than Winters of any other decade of the 20th century here. Likewise, 2000s & 2010s winters were also harsher than winters of the middle third of the 20th century. 

NOAA climate analysis uses all the local station data and corrects for bias including heat island effects. My understanding is that currently official NWS data is collected at Metro Airport. The Metro data lines up well the NOAA analysis. Starting the regression in 1959 (as far back as I can obtain data) instead of 1970 doesn't appear to make much difference. Bottom-line: I don't see any evidence that your winter temperature trend experience is much different from mine.

[stadiumwave]

10 hours ago, NEPASnow said:

There is still a SSW, and a possible split still might occur, just not a reversal.

 

#1 GEPS still spilts for a bit

#2 EPS still splits at 50mb, 100mb, & 150mb

 

#3 EURO at 10mb looks like it's on its way to splitting but also it's warming orientation is different than other models pushing than main lobe to North America

 

#4 GEFS & GEPS have additional warming event after the first event starting over Asia around JAN 14, also on GFS

 

#5 With all that said, a full SSW is not needed to get to where winter lovers would like to be. We're likely headed that way either way & whether we get a full SSW the SPV looks to keep taking hits remaining weak. 

 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

I'd also like to say those who championed the -PDO (I call a hybrid -PDO) thinking it would lead to deep, constant -PNA. Well, the observations pooey that. It's been anything but the case. We've spent very little time in -PNA territory since early SEPT.

 

With the SST's the way they are it's muting the effect of what is a strong -PDO on the index. Just keep that in mind. I think the PDO index is faulty here. 

The weak orientation of a further west mean trough coming up is going to be due mainly to MJO, Phase 3....not -PDO. BTW, I think it's weak PHASE 3 & organic methods show the trough swinging back & forth & certainly not constant ridging in the east. The greatest threat of stubborn ridging will be in NE from -NAO, which sometimes still works out well (2010 +anomalies in NE heights but still had some big snows). 

 

[GaWx]

19 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

#1 GEPS still spilts for a bit

#2 EPS still splits at 50mb, 100mb, & 150mb

 

#3 EURO at 10mb looks like it's on its way to splitting but also it's warming orientation is different than other models pushing than main lobe to North America

 

#4 GEFS & GEPS have additional warming event after the first event starting over Asia around JAN 14, also on GFS

 

#5 With all that said, a full SSW is not needed to get to where winter lovers would like to be. We're likely headed that way either way & whether we get a full SSW the SPV looks to keep taking hits remaining weak. 

 

 

 

1. OTOH, a major SSW is the gold standard for determining the likelihood of a SPV warming later translating down into the troposphere and then very often, especially during El Niño resulting on its own in a cold E US starting a couple of weeks later. With one no longer being imminent in early Jan like appeared to be the case just 4 days ago, it certainly is disappointing to me (as one who doesn’t like to sugarcoat in an effort to come across as objective as possible) since I prefer a long-lasting cold dominated pattern.

 I’ll still be hunting for one later in the season though I hope it wouldn’t have to wait til mid Feb like last year since that would delay the most likely start of the strong effects til early March. Otherwise, there are other factors that affect our wx (like El Niño, itself, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, -EPO, weak MJO, etc) that often lead to a cold E US pattern on their own. In the meantime here it has been cold the last couple of days and is expected to be cold dominated next week, which I’m loving. That would mean through early Jan a near normal winter to that point for much of the SE US, which I’m content about because it has been hard to get in recent years.

2. Updated GLAAM: fwiw this latest CFS run has it shifting to a La Niña pattern favoring -GLAAM in mid Jan, which is consistent with MC MJO phases being projected for then:

[raindancewx]

In El Nino / La Nina with opposite phase PDO I find it's more of indicator of EPO/WPO stuff than the PNA. I never really expected the PNA to be negative. Still an El Nino at the end of the day.

PNA has always been kind of over rated to me as an indicator of anything anyway. Look at the last week with the most strongly +PNA values/setup of the month - that's the look I kept getting blending strong El Nino with -PDO.

By the way, that Kamchatka low on 12/18 does look like it is going to come through the SW US on Jan 5 or so, which is in the 1/3-1/7 period I identified back then. We'll see how it goes, still a way out.

[snowman19]

On 12/28/2023 at 5:02 PM, thunderbolt said:

Bye-bye

Awesome call!!!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

In El Nino / La Nina with opposite phase PDO I find it's more of indicator of EPO/WPO stuff than the PNA. I never really expected the PNA to be negative. Still an El Nino at the end of the day.

PNA has always been kind of over rated to me as an indicator of anything anyway. Look at the last week with the most strongly +PNA values/setup of the month - that's the look I kept getting blending strong El Nino with -PDO.

By the way, that Kamchatka low on 12/18 does look like it is going to come through the SW US on Jan 5 or so, which is in the 1/3-1/7 period I identified back then. We'll see how it goes, still a way out.

How do you figure ENSO/opposite phase PDO is an indicator of EPO/WPO?

[thunderbolt]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Awesome call!!!

 

How’s your 2.3 working out for you? And you’re super El Niño  not gonna happen when all said and done you’re gonna lose anyway, I hope you have a great new year

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

How’s your 2.3 working out for you? And you’re super El Niño  not gonna happen when all said and done you’re gonna lose anyway, I hope you have a great new year

 

It was nice of you to wish him a great new year at the end of all of that.

[GaWx]

 This EPS map for Jan 12th, should it verify closely, would be more typical of La Niña than El Niño with the -PNA/Aleutian High/SE ridge. This is something that I recall seeing very little of so far this winter. I’m assuming that this would be quite transient due to the El Niño, especially once the MJO gets past phases 4-6. Also, note that the SER (which I obviously hate to see) would be pretty stout then despite the coexisting strong -NAO/moderate -AO. I certainly hope the SE ridge would be temporary. In the meantime, I’ll be enjoying the cold that is going to dominate over the next 6 or so days: