El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

The Euro seasonal has an extremely east-based/Eastern Pacific (EP) canonical El Niño:

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Correct, however, the POAMA (BOM) and CANSIPS are both showing similar outcomes

 Good point because I just looked and CAN and especially POAMA have not had anywhere near the warm bias of the Euro. Actually, POAMA looks like it has had no warm bias. Moreover, the latest POAMA (see 1st link below) is consistent with its prior forecast of +2.2 for JAS and has ~+2.5 for ASO while still rising! So, with its lack of warm bias, that's pretty ominous.

 CANSIPS (see 2nd link below), which appears to have no more than a small warm bias, is slightly warmer than its prior with a trimonthly peak of ~+1.85 (NDJ) vs the prior run's NDJ of +1.73.

 So, in summary after taking into account biases, whereas the Euro implies a trimonthly peak at strong as most likely (say ~+1.7) and the CANSIPS implies ~~+1.8, the POAMA implies a near alltime record of ~~+2.7! So, still tons of uncertainty and a clear conflict in the models! The Euro has not been too cool since 2004! So, if 2023 ends up again not too cool for the Euro, this POAMA would verify quite a bit too warm as the latest Euro *ignoring its strong warm bias* implies a peak likely only in the low +2s.

POAMA:

CANSIPS:
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Unlike the April forecast, which warmed considerably vs March, this May forecast is about the same as April's when comparing the same months. It appears warmer in the animation only because of progression out another month, but each month through October is ~same. This new one still has ASO near +1.8 and SON is ~+1.90-1.95 per eyeballing.

 For this and other reasons, especially the strong warm bias of the Euro (more details about this in next post), I'm keeping chances of super at low with better chance of high end moderate or strong.

Agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Correct, however, the POAMA (BOM) and CANSIPS are both showing similar outcomes

The CANSIPS has a wintry pattern for the east.

[snowman19]

The CANSIPS has a wintry pattern for the east.

I’m more interested in what the ultimate strength of the El Nino is. If it goes super (+2.0C or above), it will be a very, very easy winter forecast…..blowtorch…just like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 were. Then all you can do is pray for a real lucky, well timed snowstorm when you actually have cold air, like 1/16 and 1/83

[Maestrobjwa]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m more interested in what the ultimate strength of the El Nino is. If it goes super (+2.0C or above), it will be a very, very easy winter forecast…..blowtorch…just like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 were. Then all you can do is pray for a real lucky, well timed snowstorm when you actually have cold air, like 1/16 and 1/83

Ah so you're rooting for that blowtorch? Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It doesn't make sense that Strong Nino would be a blowtorch if Moderate El Nino is snowy, if they are based in generally the same area.. Give enough samples and they will both even out. 

[snowman19]

It doesn't make sense that Strong Nino would be a blowtorch if Moderate El Nino is snowy, if they are based in generally the same area.. Give enough samples and they will both even out. 

It doesn’t matter if it’s east-based or basin-wide once it gets to super status. There’s no such thing as Modoki/central pacific super Ninos, they are either Eastern Pacific or basin-wide. 15-16 was a basin-wide super event and it was a torch. We got lucky with one storm that winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It just ways of describing the increase or decrease of equilateral trade winds. max has never really been hit. 

https://ibb.co/m5H8Lch

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 The peak is 0.35 warmer than the prior run, but it does appear to have a warm bias in May.

[bdgwx]

Here is the probability density function (PDF) corrected forecast. It is about 0.5 lower than the non-bias corrected forecast.

 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/6/2023 at 3:13 PM, snowman19 said:

I’m more interested in what the ultimate strength of the El Nino is. If it goes super (+2.0C or above), it will be a very, very easy winter forecast…..blowtorch…just like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 were. Then all you can do is pray for a real lucky, well timed snowstorm when you actually have cold air, like 1/16 and 1/83

Well, I have a sneaking suspicion that if the winter panels were more reminiscent of a super-strength, canonical el nino, then you wouldn't have ignored them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If its warm, its warm...oh well, but we will have a better chance of a large scale event than this past season...obviously Jan 2016 and the Megalopolis system...but even 12/23/97 produce 8" in an hour not too far from me.

[jconsor]

Thread delving into the outsized influence of the subsurface warm pool this late fall-winter, well before water temps at the surface began warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

 

[snowman19]

Another new model run showing an east-based strong event…

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Another new model run showing an east-based strong event…

1. Indeed, if this were to verify, it would be as of August east based (with 1+2 and 3 much warmer than 4) as well as strong in August. How would you expect it to look as it progresses to D, J, and F?

2. Note how warm the global oceans are projected to be as a whole! Less than 5% of the world ocean anomalies are blue while 80%+ are red!

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Indeed, if this were to verify, it appears it would be as of August east based (with 1+2 and 3 much warmer than 4) as well as strong in August. How would you expect it to look as it progresses to D, J, and F?
2. Note how warm the global oceans are projected to be as a whole! Less than 5% of the world ocean anomalies are blue while 80%+ are red!

I would expect it to stay that way (east-based and strong to possibly super) due to Bjerknes feedback. Once that feedback loop gets established, the SST warmth is self-sustaining and even magnifies. It has been shown that Bjerknes feedback is stronger and more sustainable in the eastern ENSO regions. This event has developed as a classic Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and there’s no reason to doubt it stays that way. See this study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If its warm, its warm...oh well, but we will have a better chance of a large scale event than this past season...obviously Jan 2016 and the Megalopolis system...but even 12/23/97 produce 8" in an hour not too far from me.

Snowman calling for a blowtorch winter? Whoa that never happens.

Is JB calling for a 09-10 because that never happens either? 

[GaWx]

In the new weeklies, Nino 1+2 warmed from +2.4 back up to +2.7, which ties it with 3-4 weeks ago for the warmest thus far this event. Nino 3.4 remained the same as last week at +0.4. Nino 4 actually cooled slightly from +0.4 to +0.3, while Nino 3 warmed slightly from +0.7 to +0.8. Compared to four weeks ago, Nino 3 warmed 0.6 while Nino 4 is the same.

[GaWx]

On 5/6/2023 at 4:28 PM, snowman19 said:

It doesn’t matter if it’s east-based or basin-wide once it gets to super status. There’s no such thing as Modoki/central pacific super Ninos, they are either Eastern Pacific or basin-wide. 15-16 was a basin-wide super event and it was a torch. We got lucky with one storm that winter

 Whereas 2015-6, 1997-8, 1982-3, 1972-3, and 1965-6 were indeed supers with clearly warmer than normal at NYC, the supers 1888-9 and 1877-8 were actually near normal. Are you aware of that? Does that give you some doubt about the NE US torching should this go super?

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Whereas 2015-6, 1997-8, 1982-3, 1972-3, and 1965-6 were indeed supers with clearly warmer than normal at NYC, the supers 1888-9 and 1877-8 were actually near normal. Are you aware of that? Does that give you some doubt about the NE US torching should this go super?

I don’t even consider using analogs from the 1800’s. Our climate background is nothing like it was back then, night and day with the AGW (much warmer) climate of today. So far, as you pointed out in your other post, this one is developing as a textbook Eastern Pacific/east-based El Niño

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

In the new weeklies, Nino 1+2 warmed from +2.4 back up to +2.7, which ties it with 3-4 weeks ago for the warmest thus far this event. Nino 3.4 remained the same as last week at +0.4. Nino 4 actually cooled slightly from +0.4 to +0.3, while Nino 3 warmed slightly from +0.7 to +0.8. Compared to four weeks ago, Nino 3 warmed 0.6 while Nino 4 is the same.

April finished 3 warmest behind 1998 and 1983. But those months were at the tail end rather than the beginning of the event. So this is the first time Nino 1+2 was this warm during a spring ahead of an El Niño.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Snowman calling for a blowtorch winter? Whoa that never happens.

Is JB calling for a 09-10 because that never happens either? 

Thanks for your very insightful, knowledgeable and riveting contributions to serious discussions as always. I would expect no less

[csnavywx]

14 hours ago, jconsor said:

Thread delving into the outsized influence of the subsurface warm pool this late fall-winter, well before water temps at the surface began warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

 

Perhaps it's poorly worded or perhaps I'm misunderstanding here, but I disagree on one part -- this comes off as classic over-detection of correlation = causation. You set up and fail to show how the causation works as far as a transmission mechanism is concerned from the *subsurface* to the atmosphere (and specifically not SSTs, for some odd reason) which, by default, are not in contact with one another. This literally makes no physical sense. Should have left it at the AAM pattern.

Maybe you meant SST trends leading to a +AAM tendency? Struggling with this one.

[so_whats_happening]

Now this is certainly something you want to see happen to sustain the el  Nino and maybe finally give it a solid kick.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Perhaps it's poorly worded by him, but this comes off as classic over-detection of correlation = causation going on here. He sets it up and fails to show how the causation works as far as a transmission mechanism is concerned from the *subsurface* to the atmosphere (and specifically not SSTs, for some odd reason) which, by default, are not in contact with one another. This literally makes no physical sense. Should have left it at the AAM pattern.

@jconsor is the one who wrote those tweets, same guy

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

@jconsor is the one who wrote those tweets, same guy

Thanks, didn't notice. Will edit post to reflect that!