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El Nino 2023-2024


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Yeah, -PNA not really breaking. There is some GOA Low signal on LR models, but 1) trend continues for more -PNA as we get closer

2) -NAO cap remains in place, we never trend more -NAO, somewhat consistent +NAO decadal cycle. 

This tells me that the same patterns that we have seen since 2013, 2016, 2019 and lately continue to hold.. There is a Global warming trend, and Nino 1+2 seems to point and match that right now imo.(We have seen a lot of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 volatility since year 2000.)

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There's no end in sight for the El Niño Costero near Peru & Ecuador ~ seas remain 5-7˚C above average.

Almost May now.. and we have a June "ENSO cooling" in this cycle that we may come up against. I think we are seeing a reflection of global max, that's it. Although it is a little unique, and should even out to maybe a Moderate event. 

https://ibb.co/XbQ3gWj

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After a very slight drop, region 1+2 has warmed back up to over +2.6C. Region 3 has begun to warm very rapidly, up to over +0.7C and climbing. The WWB in regions 3 and 1+2 doing it’s dirty work. Paul Roundy is predicting an extreme WWB next month. Uncharted territory right now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png
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Expect a good window for ENSO warming May 10-12. I want to see SOI/NOI shift stronger if we are going to go stronger. 
Here was 1966. https://ibb.co/L04dXDX It was colder everywhere, I think we are heading toward a hotter summer
1965 https://ibb.co/5xLqwz7

There aren’t many analogs for this summer…rapidly developing east-based El Niño, region 1+2 on fire, -QBO, -PDO, +IOD, high solar, +AMO…..not many good matches. Then the question becomes how strong does it get come this fall? As of right now, I think at least high-end strong isn’t far fetched at all
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MJO activity heading into 4/5/6 on some forecasts instead of null and re-emerging into Nino phases of 8/1/2 like we have the past two months. Curious where this goes from here as we start to get into territory of how the El Nino will progress. Here is essentially end of April SST anoms and 7 day change.

Overall still seems to be alot of mixed signals taking place.

ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png

ct5km_sst-trend-7d_v3.1_global_current.png

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25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


There aren’t many analogs for this summer…rapidly developing east-based El Niño, region 1+2 on fire, -QBO, -PDO, +IOD, high solar, +AMO…..not many good matches. Then the question becomes how strong does it get come this fall? As of right now, I think at least high-end strong isn’t far fetched at all

We've seen 3 rounds of higher latitude blocking empty out to well above average mid-latitudes. We'll see if the El Nino is a variable that could conquer this.. My point about 65-66, which I've seen with other developing strong Nino's, is that they historically are colder times for the globe, before it gets going). 

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11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

MJO activity heading into 4/5/6 on some forecasts instead of null and re-emerging into Nino phases of 8/1/2 like we have the past two months. Curious where this goes from here as we start to get into territory of how the El Nino will progress. Here is essentially end of April SST anoms and 7 day change.

Overall still seems to be alot of mixed signals taking place.

ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png

ct5km_sst-trend-7d_v3.1_global_current.png

For reference to a SST anom for 1997 going into the super Nino this was a monthly mean for April that year. You can see we are trying to get a similar profile look to that year. Cooling taking place in the central and NW Atlantic, warming up of the west coast waters but notice the still rather warm anomalies across the western Pac. Have a feeling this may disrupt the atmospheric process a bit to ensure a strong Nino is coming. Honestly though anything to shake up the pattern is fine with me at this point.

 

April.97.anomaly.gif

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I wouldn't forecast a less active Atlantic hurricane season until the warmth gets into Nino 3.4. May 9-12 is a good test, the central subsurface is warming pretty strong today vs yesterday. 

East Pacific/east-based El Niño events historically shut down development in the Caribbean
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23 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

For reference to a SST anom for 1997 going into the super Nino this was a monthly mean for April that year. You can see we are trying to get a similar profile look to that year. Cooling taking place in the central and NW Atlantic, warming up of the west coast waters but notice the still rather warm anomalies across the western Pac. Have a feeling this may disrupt the atmospheric process a bit to ensure a strong Nino is coming. Honestly though anything to shake up the pattern is fine with me at this point.

 

April.97.anomaly.gif

I was thinking this still has alot of potential growth to be a pretty strong NINO upcoming the MJO seems like it gonna get stuck into the WP well into May seemingly.1997 was still much colder than it was right now in the west.CFS seems to be hinting at a strong KW as we get into May that could upwell those warm subsurface temps,i'm not no pro like you are so its just IMHO..lol

Summary-APEC-Climate-Center.png

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For reference to a SST anom for 1997 going into the super Nino this was a monthly mean for April that year. You can see we are trying to get a similar profile look to that year. Cooling taking place in the central and NW Atlantic, warming up of the west coast waters but notice the still rather warm anomalies across the western Pac. Have a feeling this may disrupt the atmospheric process a bit to ensure a strong Nino is coming. Honestly though anything to shake up the pattern is fine with me at this point.
 
April_97.anomaly.thumb.gif.ac921a0216359db2292032538aff03cf.gif

Yea, the ENSO regions are starting off warmer now than 1997 at this time, obvious differences are the strong -PDO, strong +AMO and the high solar this year, but we have the same MJO/WWB amplification, +IOD, east-based Nino development and -QBO as 1997 did, the 96-97 winter was cold-neutral ENSO
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If Nino 1+2 could remain this warm for another 1-2 months, that would be impressive. We haven't really seen anything anomalous since 2012. 15-16 Super Nino was a sliding scale down of past Strong Nino's, imo. It's a -PNA era since 2010 and 2013 for whatever reason. I've seen a lot of neutral (even-out) patterns the last few years... 

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Besides post-Super Nino's of 1983, 1992, and 1998, the most Nino1+2 warmth was in these years in April.. it has historically been a lagger vs leader. 

1953  24.13  26.27  27.22  27.00  25.43  23.43  21.96  21.18  21.06  20.84  21.51  22.22
1965  23.87  25.78  26.48  26.88  25.95  24.35  23.00  22.38  21.10  21.34  22.09  23.16

1983  27.21  28.13  28.72  28.86  28.26  27.36  25.76  23.93  22.10  22.00  22.05  23.03
1987  25.56  27.07  27.93  27.10  25.93  24.10  22.98  21.82  21.83  22.47  22.80  23.48
1992  25.03  26.71  27.73  27.72  26.63  23.98  21.89  20.87  20.76  21.02  21.59  22.71
1998  28.12  28.74  29.23  28.22  27.14  25.36  23.37  21.97  20.95  21.35  21.51  22.63

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina1.data

They all dropped >5c later in the year..

53-54 and 92-93 were subsurface El Nino's but neutral in Nino 3.4 in the Winter. 

These 3 were the coldest, and they turned into 2 Neutral and 1 Weak Nina. 

1950  23.01  24.32  25.11  23.63  22.68  21.33  20.31  20.12  19.56  19.99  19.85  21.72
1954  22.66  24.88  25.17  22.45  21.43  20.66  19.13  19.31  19.02  18.98  20.20  21.34
1962  23.83  25.37  24.36  23.16  22.90  21.77  20.64  20.24  19.99  19.84  20.78  21.72

You can also see how Nino 1+2 warmth/cold in April is possibly correlated to rise in global temperature, or at least it has been vs Nino 3.4. 

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8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I was thinking this still has alot of potential growth to be a pretty strong NINO upcoming the MJO seems like it gonna get stuck into the WP well into May seemingly.1997 was still much colder than it was right now in the west.CFS seems to be hinting at a strong KW as we get into May that could upwell those warm subsurface temps,i'm not no pro like you are so its just IMHO..lol

Summary-APEC-Climate-Center.png

No pro still have much to learn overall, unfortunately tropics were not my forte in college so still always learning on that aspect. Always welcome to discussion and different thoughts. The big reason I highlighted these different aspects was because you want to see oceanic processes cooperate to help re-enforce the atmospheric component and help sustain a particular mode of ENSO. When we had Nina conditions we saw the oceanic pattern amplify the atmospheric conditions and while it was not a strong La Nina this past year it was more connected than the past two years, you can see this in the MEI data ( https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ ) . West Pac warm pool/ maritime and strong eastern Pac upwelling. We had one impressive MJO wave that finally seemed to allow the pattern to move around a bit and ease of up trades in the eastern PAC. I would like to see continued WWB events to warrant much past moderate status overall in 3.4 region. The thermocline is already lowered so it wouldn't take much to continue to slowly warm these waters but with having WWB event so far west I wonder just how far east these can get and allow the decline of the thermocline to allow the subsurface warming to takeover. As many have stated to really allow for a strong Nino we need these (WWB) to occur closer to the dateline to allow for the Pac as a whole to finally tip the bucket if you will. Honestly lets see how it evolves if we start to see strong OLR signals more toward the maritime and western Pac then certainly we will have started to see the atmospheric component change up and could help lead us to strong El Nino potential. Otherwise with an anomalous West Pac/ Maritime ocean and eastern Pac ocean these are fighting signals that may hinder the overall potential. Lets see how it evolves in the next two months as we may get a better handle on things and see if we do in fact get a WWB event that can extend with time closer to the dateline.

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:


Yea, the ENSO regions are starting off warmer now than 1997 at this time, obvious differences are the strong -PDO, strong +AMO and the high solar this year, but we have the same MJO/WWB amplification, +IOD, east-based Nino development and -QBO as 1997 did, the 96-97 winter was cold-neutral ENSO

Here are the MJO configurations for 1982/1997/ 2015. These were some of the most intense Nino episodes we have on record. Interesting to note the strong MJO wave in March for 1997/2015. It is hard to discern with overall warmer global SST's while trying to compare to the past but maybe we are achieving these temp differences in the same manner as past El Nino events just with a higher base state? Unfortunately can not find past 850u anom maps for those years luckily can see at least subsurface those years.

I hate to go off the idea what happened in the past should happen again given these same factors because that can really steer us the wrong way. Trust me im not in the gotcha game if we go full bore strong/super Nino by all means great (not sure it will help many of us in the winter department but so be it) Im more so trying to take a cautious approach as models have failed on ENSO transitions numerous times with a warming world and the competing factors we still presently have do not help. Lets just see what happens in the next two months if we are on track for a 97/98 scenario we would start to take off about now 15/16 already had a warmed Pac so it transitioned quite a bit easier. If anything I would consider next year to have the better potential of a strong/ super nino when conditions may reflect it much better but that has just been a random thought in my head.

This is where you can get past MJO data http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

198201.phase.90days.gif

199701.phase.90days.gif

201501.phase.90days.gif

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17 hours ago, snowman19 said:


There aren’t many analogs for this summer…rapidly developing east-based El Niño, region 1+2 on fire, -QBO, -PDO, +IOD, high solar, +AMO…..not many good matches. Then the question becomes how strong does it get come this fall? As of right now, I think at least high-end strong isn’t far fetched at all

Why do you assume it'll be an east based Nino?

Warming typically starts east and propagates westward. Monthlies show this happening by the fall. 

Strong eastern warming can collapse very quickly. 

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Why do you assume it'll be an east based Nino?
Warming typically starts east and propagates westward. Monthlies show this happening by the fall. 
Strong eastern warming can collapse very quickly. 

Whatever you say. You’re the expert, I’ll defer to your professional, seasoned opinion since you know everything. You’re right, it’s going to become a Modoki by fall
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20 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It is a forecast of course but this is extremely far west for a WWB event. At least the eastern portion of the two areas may present some type of sustaining effect for waters in the eastern Pacific. Have to see how it plays out

Yeah, pretty far west for a developing El Niño this time of year. So the subsurface below Nino 3.4 is much less impressive than the super years like 97-98 and 15-16. But Nino 1+2 is near record levels for April. Sustained Nino 1+2 values above +2 usually are accompanied by more warming in 3.4 than we have currently seen. So no analogs at all for this type of El Niño evolution both in regard to the WWB activity and faster 1+2 warming. Tough to guess how this will ultimately end up in terms of strength and location of warmest anomalies.

AF051EE1-69EB-463F-88F3-D9F38D955FFF.gif.763817d7629875026a7aa9e60153256a.gif

503331A3-7EED-4982-BC8D-FD826E8CC658.gif.aa0812fec7a40aa7f9d082b8e8287c53.gif

2A98B956-0B9F-4596-BAD0-466ECF41B64B.thumb.png.94d36a56753ad17b111ea4d4454d762d.png

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, pretty far west for a developing El Niño this time of year. So the subsurface below Nino 3.4 is much less impressive than the super years like 97-98 and 15-16. But Nino 1+2 is near record levels for April. Sustained Nino 1+2 values above +2 usually are accompanied by more warming in 3.4 than we have currently seen. So no analogs at all for this type of El Niño evolution both in regard to the WWB activity and faster 1+2 warming. Tough to guess how this will ultimately end up in terms of strength and location of warmest anomalies.

AF051EE1-69EB-463F-88F3-D9F38D955FFF.gif.763817d7629875026a7aa9e60153256a.gif

503331A3-7EED-4982-BC8D-FD826E8CC658.gif.aa0812fec7a40aa7f9d082b8e8287c53.gif

2A98B956-0B9F-4596-BAD0-466ECF41B64B.thumb.png.94d36a56753ad17b111ea4d4454d762d.png

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

Well said Blue at this point it’s just a guessing game how everything is going to turn out and how the atmosphere is going to react to everything

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1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

Well said Blue at this point it’s just a guessing game how everything is going to turn out and how the atmosphere is going to react to everything

Yeah, need the trades to relax near the Dateline for the El Niño to fully develop. Unusually warm SSTs from IO to WPAC may be playing a role. So still a big disconnect between Nino 3.4 and 1.2. When Nino 1.2 first warmed to  +2 to +3 in 1997, Nino 3.4 was +0.5 to +1.0. This time, Nino 3.4 is still neutral due to the stronger trades and a much less impressive subsurface. 

 

 

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