El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

A very warm winter is very possible next season and there is plenty of support for such an outcome.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its tough not be biased....we have all been guilty of it at one time or another. Its good to try to think of reasons why the alternative perspective could end up being right in an effort to guard against that...we are all human and its difficult not to let bias rule the day with respect to a subject that we're passionate about, like weather.

[brooklynwx99]

i'm not sure if anyone that should be taken seriously had a cold, snowy last year. I had December with a chance to be cold and snowy if blocking developed, but we got screwed there. then, perhaps residual cold from December blocking in early Jan before the late Jan-Feb torch. overall warm and less snowy

most people went the typical Nina route from the get-go

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'm not sure if anyone that should be taken seriously had a cold, snowy last year. I had December with a chance to be cold and snowy if blocking developed, but we got screwed there. then, perhaps residual cold from December blocking in early Jan before the late Jan-Feb torch. overall warm and less snowy

most people went the typical Nina route from the get-go

I had us at near to slightly above normal with a torchy Feb, but less snowy overall. Still busted pretty badly, but there was never an expectation of even a near normal winter in terms of snowfall.

Next year, on the other hand...

[roardog]

BTW, with how negative the PDO has been, it’s no surprise it is starting to become less negative. I’m not sure that means it’s going to flip to positive soon. 

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, roardog said:

BTW, with how negative the PDO has been, it’s no surprise it is starting to become less negative. I’m not sure that means it’s going to flip to positive soon. 

Best case is the pdo returns to neutral, which opens up some favorable possibilities for next winter. Don’t see it going positive so soon after record negative 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'm not sure if anyone that should be taken seriously had a cold, snowy last year. I had December with a chance to be cold and snowy if blocking developed, but we got screwed there. then, perhaps residual cold from December blocking in early Jan before the late Jan-Feb torch. overall warm and less snowy

most people went the typical Nina route from the get-go

I had a blocky December into January, and a blocky March. January was obviously less blocky than I thought, but I nailed the AO/NAO for the DM period in the aggregate because the December block was very intense. I wasn't quite aggressive enough with the PDO and thought la nina would be basin wide, but it ended up modoki, which is at least partly why I think mid season was so warm. I did have huge Jan thaw and a very mild Feb, but I didn't think Jan would be wall to wall torch like it was.

Can't stress how well raindance did....very impressive.

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Best case is the pdo returns to neutral, which opens up some favorable possibilities for next winter. Don’t see it going positive so soon after record negative 

 Why do you say BEST case for PDO is neutral?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Why do you say BEST case for PDO is neutral?

Probably because it has such a low starting point.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is what composites and explicit forecasts are for. 

I know that we both understand that. I have done the same thing. But posters on this forum hear a specific year mentioned and then aren’t happy when the snowfall or temperature forecast isn’t exactly like that year. So I had to lean more on recent year composites rather than the specifics. I guess it’s just the way people hear things and relate to their favorite winters from the past. 

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably because it has such a low starting point.

Exactly. Because the pdo is so negative now, I think it will stay negative for a while. Just less so. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

BTW, with how negative the PDO has been, it’s no surprise it is starting to become less negative. I’m not sure that means it’s going to flip to positive soon. 

After dipping below -2 recently the more +PNA let it rise a bit. 
 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

This is a how much for Philly question, it looks like it'd take some serious internet research, (I did some Google w/o much luck) I remember the 97 hurricane season, but how was Winter 97-98 in Texas?

 

Warm ENSO is supposed to mean cooler with better chance for snow (Cold ENSO is warmer and drier, but the last few super-freezes were La Nina years), but I don't know if a Super Nino is even cooler, even more wet, and an even greater chance of a measurable snow.

 

2017 was the last measurable snow in Houston.  2021 might be the official one, but that was frozen drizzle.  I learned this year NWS counts any frozen winter precip as snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

This is a how much for Philly question, it looks like it'd take some serious internet research, (I did some Google w/o much luck) I remember the 97 hurricane season, but how was Winter 97-98 in Texas?

 

Warm ENSO is supposed to mean cooler with better chance for snow (Cold ENSO is warmer and drier, but the last few super-freezes were La Nina years), but I don't know if a Super Nino is even cooler, even more wet, and an even greater chance of a measurable snow.

 

2017 was the last measurable snow in Houston.  2021 might be the official one, but that was frozen drizzle.  I learned this year NWS counts any frozen winter precip as snow.

Super nino would be warm for everyone, but the odds of a freak juggernaut are enhanced...especially near the coast/mid atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just to be clear, no one is arguing that an eastern-based el nino of appreciable intensity will not be warm and likely have below average snow....perhaps well below. But the only questions are whether or not this el nino will remain heavily eastern based throughout winter and whether or not it will become prohibitively powerful....ie ONI 2.0+. If the latter is true, it doesn't matter a great deal whether or not it remains heavily eastern based or not. It will be very warm, but a basin wide super event increases the likelihood of that stray juggernaut.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A very warm winter is very possible next season and there is plenty of support for such an outcome.

The bar is extremely low after last winter especially south of 41N

Hell a 10" winter would be nearly a 5x improvement for places like NYC. 

I'll take a strong Nino over the crap we've been dealing with because at least there's a chance at something interesting. It also shakes up the stagnant Nina pattern. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Exactly. Because the pdo is so negative now, I think it will stay negative for a while. Just less so. 

 I understand that the very low starting point minimizes the chance for it to rise enough to get to positive. But but based on a few cases of sharp rises when to a new Nino, might there be a small chance for at least a modest positive...say, DJF of +0.50+? 

 Examples:

1. Nov-Apr 1883-4 was -1.4. DJF of the very cold 1884-5 was way up at +1.98. That's a 3.38 rise!

2. Nov-Apr of 1975-6 was -1.9. DJF of 1976-7 was up at +1.32. That's a rise of 3.22!   

3. Nov-Apr of 2001-2 was -1.3. DJF of 2002-3 was up at +1.42 for a rise of 2.72!

4. Nov-Apr of 2022-3 was at -2.17. DJF of 2023-4 would reach +0.50 with a rise of 2.67. The rises in 1884-5,  1976-7, and 2002-3 would do it. The rises in 1884-5 and 1976-7 would actually give a strong +PDO (>+1.0) in 2023-4.

 So, there have been 38 new onset El Niños since 1855-6. So, 3 of 38 or 8% of them saw a PDO rise large enough to yield a +0.50+ in DJF of 2023-4.

 

 

 I used this table:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Nov-Apr PDO finished at -1.65 on the JISAO/Mantua index.

That's third most negative back to 1931-32 for a Nov-Apr. These are your -1 to -2 PDO Nov-Apr years.

1971-72, 1948-49, 1961-62, 1949-50, 1990-91, 1970-71, 1975-76, 2008-09, 1950-51, 2011-12, 1973-74, 1956-57.

 

Of those, 1971, 1990, 1975, 2008, 1950, 1956 turned into El Ninos.

These are your "El Nino following major -PDO" years then. 1951-52, 1957-58, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1991-92, 2009-10.

Actually not a bad match for April, which is a good sign.

That blend is actually severely cold in most of the US in the Fall, but then it lets up December. Would be a pretty good winter in the Southern US, but not particularly cold anywhere in winter itself. There is some tendency for severe cold in the Fall in volcanic years - this might actually be a decent blend for now.

 

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

How would you adjust past analogs toward today's climate? 

Some options come to top of mind: 

- brute force of adjusting temps up by a couple degrees across the board (oversimplistic, but can be complicated by the fact that doing so would eliminate 32-33 degree snowstorms we had in the past, esp in the MA)

- adjusting storm tracks northward. Example: 72-73 had that big storm and much above normal snowfall across the SE US, but virtually nothing from DC to NYC. What if a 72-73 happened today? Would that storm have traversed further north and resulted in a DC-NYC hit?

- match every winter from 2000 to today with the best pre-1980 analog, and compare the forcing (location and intensity), and note the changes as a result of a warmer state?

Spatially using that composite as to where the departure centers lined up wasn’t bad. But the magnitude of the warm departures was way beyond. I have noticed various seasonal forecasts sometimes getting where the departures were located correct but ultimately having a cold bias. April was 7° warmer than the composite is some spots. So not sure how much a forecaster would know ahead of time to warm an older composite. Several spots had their warmest April on record.

 

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2023/05/02/index.html

 

 

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I understand that the very low starting point minimizes the chance for it to rise enough to get to positive. But but based on a few cases of sharp rises when to a new Nino, might there be a small chance for at least a modest positive...say, DJF of +0.50+? 

 Examples:

1. Nov-Apr 1883-4 was -1.4. DJF of the very cold 1884-5 was way up at +1.98. That's a 3.38 rise!

2. Nov-Apr of 1975-6 was -1.9. DJF of 1976-7 was up at +1.32. That's a rise of 3.22!   

3. Nov-Apr of 2001-2 was -1.3. DJF of 2002-3 was up at +1.42 for a rise of 2.72!

4. Nov-Apr of 2022-3 was at -2.17. DJF of 2023-4 would reach +0.50 with a rise of 2.67. The rises in 1884-5,  1976-7, and 2002-3 would do it. The rises in 1884-5 and 1976-7 would actually give a strong +PDO (>+1.0) in 2023-4.

 So, there have been 38 new onset El Niños since 1855-6. So, 3 of 38 or 8% of them saw a PDO rise large enough to yield a +0.50+ in DJF of 2023-4.

 

 

 I used this table:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Good to see this, thanks. So it IS possible for the PDO to rise by 2 or 3 in a short time span (a year or less).

8% seems a low probability, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see the PDO get close to neutral. Based on our east coast snowstorm history, we don't really need a strong +PDO for it to happen. We just need to mute the unfavorable mid-latitude pac forcing to allow the enso to couple.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good to see this, thanks. So it IS possible for the PDO to rise by 2 or 3. 

8% seems a low probability, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see the PDO get close to neutral. Based on our east coast snowstorm history, we don't really need a strong +PDO for it to happen. We just need to mute the unfavorable mid-latitude pac forcing to allow the enso to couple.

I know that these seasonal forecasts aren’t great. But they are forecasting the -PDO to weaken a bit in the coming months. This would be expected if some of the stronger forecasts for the El Niño worked out. Still a tough call as to how strong in 3.4 it will get since the WWBs are still pretty far west of the Dateline.  This will be a learning experience on how long it takes 3.4 to warm when the current subsurface still favors 1+2 and 3. Never had 1+2 this much warmer than 3.4 in the early development phases before. 3.4 was usually closer to +1 in past years when 1+2 was over +2 for this long. So not sure what this means going forward.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A very warm winter is very possible next season and there is plenty of support for such an outcome.

A warm winter is likely every season in this new climo. Buffalos last below average dec-feb time period was 2013-2014, a decade ago.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I know that these seasonal forecasts aren’t great. But they are forecasting the -PDO to weaken. This would be expected if some of the stronger forecasts for the El Niño worked out. Still a tough call as to how strong in 3.4 it will get since the WWBs are still pretty far west of the Dateline.  This will be a learning experience on how long it takes 3.4 to warm when the current subsurface still favors 1+2 and 3. Never had 1+2 this much warmer than 3.4 in the early development phases before. 3.4 was usually closer to +1 in past years when 1+2 was over +2 for this long. So not sure what this means going forward.

 

Yeah, we’ll know better where this is going to go in another month or two. I think I saw somewhere that a WWB is coming later this month into early June, so we’ll see if that makes it over the dateline. 

That being said, I don’t think the stronger end of the forecasts are going to work out. I see it peaking at moderate or low end strong. 1.4 give or take

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A warm winter is likely every season in this new climo. Buffalos last below average dec-feb time period was 2013-2014, a decade ago.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

You are in a unique spot where you can get a top 5 warmest and snowiest in the same season due to less ice and warmer Lakes. 

[griteater]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I know that these seasonal forecasts aren’t great. But they are forecasting the -PDO to weaken a bit in the coming months. This would be expected if some of the stronger forecasts for the El Niño worked out. Still a tough call as to how strong in 3.4 it will get since the WWBs are still pretty far west of the Dateline.  This will be a learning experience on how long it takes 3.4 to warm when the current subsurface still favors 1+2 and 3. Never had 1+2 this much warmer than 3.4 in the early development phases before. 3.4 was usually closer to +1 in past years when 1+2 was over +2 for this long. So not sure what this means going forward.

Yeah this is a bit perplexing in my view as the warm pool is hanging back to the west in the W Pac compared to years like 1997 and 2015 which already had warming move out toward the dateline (as Anthony M and others showed).  On the other hand, the thermocline has flattened with the heavy warm anomalies in the east and is preconditioned at the moment for widespread warming across the Pacific basin if there is a significant westerly wind burst and downwelling kelvin wave (one is on the doorstep, but it remains to be seen how strong and impactful it is)

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah this is a bit perplexing in my view as the warm pool is hanging back to the west in the W Pac compared to years like 1997 and 2015 which already had warming move out toward the dateline (as Anthony M and others showed).  On the other hand, the thermocline has flattened with the heavy warm anomalies in the east and is preconditioned at the moment for widespread warming across the Pacific basin if there is a significant westerly wind burst and downwelling kelvin wave (one is on the doorstep, but it remains to be seen how strong and impactful it is)

Yeah, the WPAC warm pool was warmest on record for the month of April. The trades are much stronger now near the Dateline than in 2015 and 1997. The Central Pacific is much cooler with 3.4 lagging well behind 1+2. So we don’t really have any past instances of an early El Niño evolution like this.

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I know that these seasonal forecasts aren’t great. But they are forecasting the -PDO to weaken a bit in the coming months. This would be expected if some of the stronger forecasts for the El Niño worked out. Still a tough call as to how strong in 3.4 it will get since the WWBs are still pretty far west of the Dateline.  This will be a learning experience on how long it takes 3.4 to warm when the current subsurface still favors 1+2 and 3. Never had 1+2 this much warmer than 3.4 in the early development phases before. 3.4 was usually closer to +1 in past years when 1+2 was over +2 for this long. So not sure what this means going forward.

 

 That's quite a rise forecasted for the PDO between April and July with still another 5 months to go even after that before winter starts. That suggests that a rise to low -1s is quite possible in July. That wouldn't be all that far from +0.50 being that there'd be five months to go.

 Do you know how accurate the various models are for the PDO? Are you aware of any biases?

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 That's quite a rise forecasted for the PDO between April and July with still another 5 months to go even after that before winter starts. That suggests that a rise to low -1s is quite possible in July. 

 Do you know how accurate the various models are for the PDO? Are you aware of any biases?

That’s a good question. My guess the actual PDO will be contingent on how long it takes the atmosphere to have a more Nino-like response. Those PDO forecasts are a function of how the El Niño atmospheric pattern develops. 

[raindancewx]

Nino 1.2 leads changes in the PDO. For now I still like the PDO to be negative in the winter. But of course it's going to revert toward less negative conditions. I just noted it was third lowest in almost 100 years. It's not going to stay that severe.

The entire north Pacific could warm. Without the cold tongue east of Japan, that's still a neutral or negative PDO. The PDO has a tendency to behave differently in the high-sun half of the year v. the low-sun half of the year anyway. It could easily flip very positive by winter, but won't be clear until October. The interesting thing with 1972-73 is it kept flipping positive/negative within the cold season. Part of why that's such an interesting winter. 

I generally think of Nino 4 as the immediate connection to the PDO. So Nino 1.2 eventually becomes Nino 4 / PDO changes because it has to spread out. But right now, Nino 4 is only slightly warm, with no immediate pressure from severe warming. The 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23 winters saw very cold Nino 4 readings - coldest in over a decade at times - and so yes, the PDO went severely negative.

1972-11-01T00:00:00Z	0.26
1972-12-01T00:00:00Z	-0.09
1973-01-01T00:00:00Z	0.18
1973-02-01T00:00:00Z	-0.07
1973-03-01T00:00:00Z	-0.32
1973-04-01T00:00:00Z	-0.74

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A warm winter is likely every season in this new climo. Buffalos last below average dec-feb time period was 2013-2014, a decade ago.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

You know what I mean....super el nino events are a lock to be exceedingly warm.

[bluewave]

Nino 1+2 has been above +2 for 7 weeks and 3.4 is only +0.4. By the 7th week in 2015 of 1+2  going above +2 Nino 3.4 was +1.2. At the same point in 1997 it was +0.9. So an unusually long lag in Nino 3.4 warming with the trades staying active near the Dateline.