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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


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FWIW, 00z EURO wanted no part of anything tonight

Only interesting thing on this run:

1.) Early Friday morning high as temps drop throughout the day into the 20s

2.) Temps Friday night into Saturday morning are single digits for all (W MD and usual colder locations go below zero).  Wind Chill Advisories will be needed -- -5 to -15 across the region with -25 in the colder locations

3.) Saturday we sit in the "freezer" as highs do not go above 20 at DCA... N MD stays in the mid teens for highs.  Wind chills in the -5 to 10 degree range all day across the region

4.) Sunday morning lows are in the teens for all


Also, never seen DPs in the -20s before that the 00z EURO depicts for Saturday

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1 hour ago, Ruin said:

its sad we keep grabbing onto the next storm the next storm will have enough cold will be in the right spot. then a few days it changes trends worse.

I know we’ve had some bad winters but always managed to sneak in something. Let’s hope this winter is the same.  

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Several GEFS members suggest a more significant wave Friday into Saturday. With the depicted tightening thermal gradient it makes some sense.

0c down at the VA / NC border too. Plenty of cold air to work with with a 1037 high there. Come on baby, let’s reel one of these suckers in.

Was hoping to cash in in some capacity on a couple of these waves, but it may be the final wave leading into a pattern shift which could produce our first legit areawide snowfall. Those are often the bigger waves too and we certainly aren’t foreign to pattern shift storms in these parts.
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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:




30 minutes ago, jayyy said:

06z GFS tries to being the 2/5 wave up the coast, but it skirts offshore too far south.


You don't want that coming North or your BL thermals are shot. Weak and progressive is really the only way in this pattern. Take the 4km wide swath of frozen and savor the fuck out of it.

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