Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th

[McMinnWx]

Of course, the warm nose has to show up.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Yeah, believe those guys are setup good for this system...plus the upslope areas of the plateau/mtns/ne tn. Not quite buying the wound up, cold front passage of the Euro. Between this arctic airmass squeezing out every drop of moisture/ the feed off the lakes..middle/ west TN is the money spot.

I probably should clarify.  The GFS is basically a toned down Euro track - that is the cave.  I don't buy the lack of precip on the Euro.  As John noted, if this becomes an extreme event...the GFS may actually take the lead at this point.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, McMinnWx said:

Of course, the warm nose has to show up.

More than a warm nose.  The SLP tracks right through E TN.  It did shift slightly eastward.  Let's see what the trends hold.  Still six days out.  Lots of changes still to come I think.  I wonder if modeling is about to "find" the storm again.  We are about to exit the window where storms are lost.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, McMinnWx said:

Of course, the warm nose has to show up.

I wouldnt quite right off the valley...especially central/northern areas. Going to depend on how quickly that front can plow off the plateau and how much moisture transport makes it over from the lakes.

[Carvers Gap]

Just digging into that run....that is a pretty extreme run for this time of year.  Something to watch, the GFS is sliding a slp up the coast ahead of the system.  Does it eventually jump on that coastal?  Maybe.  I have seen that happen before.  To backtrack from earlier, I give the GFS the edge right now as it seems to be handling the long range a hair better as well.  The track is not a Miller A which is a win for the Euro, but the Euro looks far too tame considering the strength of the front.

[snowbird1230]

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

I wouldnt quite right off the valley...especially central/northern areas. Going to depend on how quickly that front can plow off the plateau and how much moisture transport makes it over from the lakes.

Looks great for the Skyway!

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just digging into that run....that is a pretty extreme run for this time of year.  Something to watch, the GFS is sliding a slp up the coast ahead of the system.  Does it eventually jump on that coastal?  Maybe.  I have seen that happen before.  To backtrack from earlier, I give the GFS the edge right now as it seems to be handling the long range a hair better as well.  The track is not a Miller A which is a win for the Euro, but the Euro looks far too tame considering the strength of the front.

That's been stuck in my head all day..Hybrid Miller B. Just enough weakness to lift north...then transfer to the se coast (if the models are under doing the interaction between the two highs..basically more of a banana high)

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, snowbird1230 said:

Looks great for the Skyway!

Yeah if the 18z is remotely in the ballpark..mountains will get hammered.

[Vol4Life]

It’s pretty interesting that it takes the Low from Central GA at 126 almost due north to London, KY at 132.   That would be an unusual progression/pathway 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

That's been stuck in my head all day..Hybrid Miller B. Just enough weakness to lift north...then transfer to the se coast (if the models are under doing the interaction between the two highs..basically more of a banana high)

Yeah, that is plausible for sure.  Also, the cold which will ensue after the precip on that run is gonna push -10F over northern parts of middle/west TN.  

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

It’s pretty interesting that it takes the Low from Central GA at 126 due north to London, KY at 132.   That would be an unusual progression/pathway 

Seen it happen before..feeling the effects of the Hudson low (path of least resistance)

[Carvers Gap]

@Wurbus, there you go.  

[Carvers Gap]

Not sure if anyone has followed the run after the main event.   There are several sneaky short waves which follow.  Those won't be modeled well until 24-48 house prior to the event w/ short range modeling.  With so much cold in place, those systems could easily drop 1-2" at a pop.  This winter reminds me more and more of 10-11.

[Carvers Gap]

And whoever wanted the HOT! thread...you got it now.

[Carvers Gap]

Last post for a bit.  That was a hop, skip, and a jump from being a Miller A.  It looks like the southern extent of the spine of the Apps split the slp.  Some of it lifted into E TN.  Some of it skirted into the Piedmont.  I think modeling(ICON to some extent) is not handling the front runner slp well.  

[TellicoWx]

Brutal..windchills on Christmas Eve morning

[PowellVolz]

It doesn’t apply to every storm but I always hated being in the bull’s-eye 5-6 days out. Will also be interesting to see what the NAM has when it’s in rage. Seen more than once the globals follow the NAM’s first big move.


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[Carvers Gap]

Just settling in for a brief respite before heading back out....the 27th on the CMC/Euro is pretty close to another storm.

[Carvers Gap]

I am probably picking apart a single run a bit too much as we are still 5-6 days out.  That said, you all can see that most of the lows are in line w/ the current track or eastward.  Notice that cluster off the coast of Georgia?  It looks to me like the trend would be eastward IF that run was correct......

 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, time to wake this thread up!  With an Arctic front this strong...that is how it should look.   With so much energy, there should be rain changing to snow.   I can remember something similar during Jan/Feb 85.  The cold basically just took over the front.  

You may be talking about Feb. 12, '85. Heavy rain all day the 11th turned to very heavy, wind driven snow after midnight after the strong LP moved up the Valley and arctic air rushed in behind and under it. about 2.5 inches of rain fell here the 11th before changeover around 1:15 that night. I heard the wind roaring during the night. Had to be gusts 40-50 mph. I got up at 7:30 a.m. as snow was winding down and went out and measured 15" in the level. There were 4 foot drifts beside my home! 

  Forecasts were for light amounts.

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

You may be talking about Feb. 12, '85. Heavy rain all day the 11th turned to very heavy, wind driven snow after midnight after the strong LP moved up the Valley and arctic air rushed in behind and under it. about 2.5 inches of rain fell here the 11th before changeover around 1:15 that night. I heard the wind roaring during the night. Had to be gusts 40-50 mph. I got up at 7:30 a.m. as snow was winding down and went out and measured 15" in the level. There were 4 foot drifts beside my home! 

  Forecasts were for light amounts.

My dad was hauling a load from St Louis and barely made it back to TRI.  He called us and said he was running the leading edge of it.  He pulled in the driveway, and the hammer dropped.  Has to be that one.  That is a great example of how this "could" work.  The 18z is how I would have imagined that would look. 

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

My dad was hauling a load from St Louis and barely made it back to TRI.  Has to be that one.  That is a great example of how this "could" work.

Yep! I would of loved to of seen that fall ! That much snow in 6 hours on a saturated ground...

[PowellVolz]

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[tennvolfan]

You may be talking about Feb. 12, '85. Heavy rain all day the 11th turned to very heavy, wind driven snow after midnight after the strong LP moved up the Valley and arctic air rushed in behind and under it. about 2.5 inches of rain fell here the 11th before changeover around 1:15 that night. I heard the wind roaring during the night. Had to be gusts 40-50 mph. I got up at 7:30 a.m. as snow was winding down and went out and measured 15" in the level. There were 4 foot drifts beside my home! 
  Forecasts were for light amounts.

I was able to snag this video back in the day. Quality is terrible and forecast is for Memphis but you get the drift (no pun intended).

[snowmaker]

8 minutes ago, tennvolfan said:

 

I was able to snag this video back in the day. Quality is terrible and forecast is for Memphis but you get the drift (no pun intended).

Yep I remember that one well. We received 8 inches in Clarksville on that one. We had a good duration of moderate to heavy snow in that one. Ready for another one like that.

[fountainguy97]

I mean the 18z gfs is still a substantial hit. Maybe we can see euro trend toward a snowier solution. 
 

I'll admit the gfs scenario does seem a bit odd. Possible. But not sure I've seen anything quite like it before.

[jaxjagman]

National Weather Service Nashville TN
556 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

Satellite is showing sunny skies...however highs will only be in
the lower to middle 40s today. A weak dry boundary comes through
tonight/tomorrow and this will increase clouds tomorrow. Highs
tomorrow will be colder than today...in the middle 30s to lower
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

Temperatures warm Monday through Wednesday with southerly winds.
Highs by Wednesday will be close to 50 in the Nashville metro
area. Then the cool down...or should I say COLD air comes in. A
very strong Canadian low dives down the central plains bringing a
strong cold front through on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be
in the 40s...lows Thursday night/Friday morning single digits!
This will cause some wind chill issues and will need to make sure
pipes are protected along with the other cold safety precautions.
In fact temperatures drop below freeze Thursday night after
midnight and will stay below freeze through the end of the long
term (Saturday as of right now).

Let/s talk precipitation. Pre-frontal rain on Thursday...post
frontal mixed precipitation. Wrap around moisture Thursday night
and Friday look to be snow. With highs on Friday forecast to be in
the upper teens to lower 20s this scenario is becoming more
realistic every model run...providing the area gets wrap around
moisture.  It is way to early to talk amounts...however
accumulations for middle TN is looking probable.

The moisture moves out before Christmas Eve on Saturday so the
chances of having snow falling on Christmas looks nil...however
with lows forecast Saturday morning still in the single digits and
highs on Saturday in the lower to middle 20s any snow that may
have fallen could still be around on Saturday. The extended cold
is a much more important story than the snow. Please be prepared
for the extended cold temperatures...especially if expected to be
out of town.

&&

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

I mean the 18z gfs is still a substantial hit. Maybe we can see euro trend toward a snowier solution. 
 

I'll admit the gfs scenario does seem a bit odd. Possible. But not sure I've seen anything quite like it before.

It’s falling in line with the Euro.  Only difference is the precip.  Euro has a known bias of being too dry.  We shall see.  

[PowellVolz]

It’s falling in line with the Euro.  Only difference is the precip.  Euro has a known bias of being too dry.  We shall see.  

And the Euro being so dry makes it look like on the mods they are miles apart.


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[John1122]

GFS whopper job for the western 2/3rds of the state. Go Nashville and Memphis area folks!!