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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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3 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

“Indian fog”…

Apache here and Apache there!

Times HAVE changed…He would have been censored for that in today’s crazy world‼️

I cut the cord years ago and still watch the 70's sitcoms here and there (The Jeffersons, All in the Family etc) on the antenna TV (Channel 17.2 in Philly). They don't censor the N-word, Honkey, Jew, Sp*c...it's when people didn't take things so seriously.

Since this is a weather forum, "FOX Weather" 24hrs on Channel 29.5 isn't bad and they don't "loop" programming from what I've seen. LIVE and documentaries...not bad for late night viewing, a couple beers and waiting for the incoming storm to miss us. Good fun...

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Our mild weather continues most of this week before we cool down to near normal by the weekend. Rain looks likely by Thursday morning with another chance on Friday night into Saturday.
The record high for today is 65.8 set in 2008. The record low is 6 below zero from 1895. Daily precipitation mark is the 3.00" that fell way back in 1896. Our daily snow record is the 12.3" that fell today back in 2010.
 

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Made it up to 48 as a high yesterday and after a low of 38 this morning, I'm currently partly sunny and bopping between 50 and 51 with dp 34, with an interesting cloud deck of stratocumulus advecting in from the south and west but with sparse cumulus to the north and east. 

I had noticed the sidewalk damp this morning so not sure if that was due to some overnight fog that had dissipated by the time I checked very early or was from some passing, non-measurable precip.

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Not enough snow for the rest of Feb to wipe my --------windshield off --- LMAO. These models are comical ---one model run 14 in  of snow the next run it disappears with a warm rain--- WAM- Wake me up before I  go go  as these models go yo yo. Face it winter is DOA in Feb. Lets hope for a March bloomer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A mild week continues for Chester County with a chance of some showers overnight tonight. Temps should warm into the 50's Wednesday through Friday. There is a chance we could see some freezing rain across some of the far northern areas of Chesco into Berks and Lehigh counties if the rain arrives before rush hour. Colder air will follow for the weekend and we will track a developing coastal storm that could track close enough to give us snow later Sunday toward evening. Only the GFS American model currently shows significant snow with that model printing out over a foot of snow across Chester County. That said based on our seasonal trends this winter I suspect it will likely track off the coast to our south.
Records for today: High 61.3 (2008) / Low 2 below zero (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Record Snow 14.8" (1951)
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22 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

The GFS snow for the weekend is only a few hundred miles further south down in North Carolina now....1676300400-lwJf08OrYss.png

Now this won't be fake the Carolina's and south Virginia will get blasted to the coasts

That would match the snow in Kuwait as a bad winter halmark

 

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52 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

The GFS snow for the weekend is only a few hundred miles further south down in North Carolina now....1676300400-lwJf08OrYss.png

Yes, but the UKIE, GEFS showed a developing system to the south and if the UKIE was a bit colder, would have been a crush job. They were not doing that before. I think we need to look at this possibility more closely. 

* Update -  GEPS trended more towards storm idea, not much but a little. 

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 I am telling all of you now, that the chances of a severe drought this spring and summer are exponentially increasing every week we go with NO snow on the ground. People better start talking about it. The above precip in December all ran off and left us nothing in the ground for recharge since much of it ran off over frozen tundra soils. Facts:

1.  35 in of annual snowfall amount for the LV is currently non existent. Over 1/2 of the LV lies over a limestone bedrock aquifer which supplies a large chunk of bottled water/beer/soda/and juices to the entire NE corridor.  With no recharge and no huge precipitation events on the horizon for Feb into March, I am getting quite concerned. 

2. The current streams hydrology are currently running at base flow but they are also beginning to drop now. As soon as leaf out out begins in early April (maybe even March this year), this will greatly effect the streamflows and ground water table. Drought watches should be issued at this point if we do not get sustainable snowfall/rainfall.

3. It will take a 1.5' foot snow event or a 3-5 in long duration rainfall event to even get us out of this drought threat. I am sorry but I do not see that anywhere in the cards in the 3-4 weeks in this current pattern. I only see it getting way worse. More later

4. I rely on analogy of La Nina years going into a neutral period for severe droughts. They are real good indicators. The big one was in 2001-2002 and again in 2016-2017

https://www.farmanddairy.com/news/2002-was-marked-by-widespread-us-drought-and-the-return-of-el-ni241o/1713.html

 

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Our overnight low was a warm 35.7 (normal is 22.1).  Our mild weather continues through Friday with closer to seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Our best rain chance looks to be tomorrow afternoon into the evening but not a wash out.
Records for today: High (64) 1965 / Low (4) 1895 / Precipitation (1.00") 1895 / Snow (10.0") 1895. Of note today in 1895 was the 2nd day of a 2-day snowstorm that began at 8am on the 7th and ended at 5am on the 8th with very cold temps being reported as the thermometer remain below 8 degrees fro the entire storm.
image.png.02af3bbfa7f3d68ea33cb94c5e60e35f.png
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3 hours ago, Newman said:

I would be very surprised if many of us don't see 60s later today. No snowpack, NW wind will help downslope and dry things out. Full sun today, which is at an equivalent sun angle to Nov 2. 850s are +5 to +6. 

53F here at 1:30 with hazy sun. Don't think I'll get to 60F today. Maybe next week? Seems the only thing left to root for is much above temps and sunny days.

:sizzle:

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