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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Dippin dots for whatever reason are becoming a common snow type(warming?) First solid memory of them was in the blizzard of 2006.

It had to happen- ECM with a borderline temperature Super Bowl/pre Bowl blizzard

 

 

More like driving rain storm ending as some sleet as the storm "creates it's own cold air"...those always work out well :raining:

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Below are some interesting snow stats for Chester County looking at the Top 25 seasons with the most snow through January 31st and Top 25 with the least snow through the end of January. I then included the total final snowfall for each of those seasons. So far this season we have the 6th least snow through this point in the season. To show you how unusually snowy the current century has been - 6 of the top 25 snowiest starts to winter have all occurred since 2000. Yet, only 2 times with this year being that year have we had a top 25 least snow through January start. This may give cause to pause for those that seem to think it used to snow more back when they were kids!

image.png.22c2b32b9409b6f71ea254488d8b7e04.png

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Yesterday was only our 2nd below normal day of the year. We only experienced 1 below normal day in January that being on January 14. Well for a contrast it looks like we will start the 1st 4 days of February with well below normal temps until we get back to near and then above normal by Sunday. The coldest day looks to be Saturday with a low around 10 degrees and a high in the mid 20's.
A dry period is on tap with no precipitation in the forecast till later next week at the earliest.
The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1967. Our record low is 6 below zero from 1918. Record melted precipitation is 1.69" from 1897 and the record daily snow is the 8.5" that fell in 1897.
image.png.01a0a8a231ed49df414f66186b23035a.png
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1 hour ago, zenmsav6810 said:

40% accuracy..... LOL that's worse than guessing....!  

Not quite, I haven't taken a statistics course in like 10 years but IIRC I think it would only be a .09% chance of guessing every one correct and 20.5% of guessing 4 correctly out of 10 so overall he hasn't done too shabby. :lol:

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13 hours ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

Forgive my ignorance but I see winter precipitation in Tennessee expanding ENE now reaching Virginia. I also see a disturbance diving down into this from Canada and somehow this means a sunny day for us tomorrow? What am I missing? 

It's sunny don't miss it!

 

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3 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:

40% accuracy..... LOL that's worse than guessing....!  

That's better than the GFS this winter with those long-range storms that didn't verify. :lol:

20 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's sunny don't miss it!

 

Almost not a cloud in the sky* save for some contrails here and there.

(*although looks like there may be a fuzzy deck of very high cirrus that has still allowed a "blue" cast to shine through for a faux blue sky :D)

Currently 37 and mostly sunny with dp 16.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Friday night possible good viewing conditions cloud wise in the single digits if the moon isn't over powering.

 

Saw the green comet last night with naked eye. Just a blurry star with greenish hue. Used the Sky Tonight app to locate it. I can only assume it's green for the Eagles!

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Saw the green comet last night with naked eye. Just a blurry star with greenish hue. Used the Sky Tonight app to locate it. I can only assume it's green for the Eagles!

Made the mistake of waiting until midnight for best viewing by then it was clouds.

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57 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Nice super rainstorm Super Bowl Sunday on the ECM. Would make climbing greased poles super challenging.

 

If there's a will there's a way.:scooter:

 

But seriously I don't hate the look on the ECM other than it's blazing warm. With those high pressure's situated over the top up north, you'd think it'd be much colder than what it's currently showing. Interestingly the GFS has the cold but pattern is too progressive for the follow up wave. Split the difference between them and we aren't in a bad spot. Still a thread the needle situation though, but one of these times it's gotta thread dammit!:weenie:

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