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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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Yesterday felt chilly in our mild winter but it was still over 4 degrees above normal. We should stay above normal through Monday with several days to follow this week actually staying below normal regarding temperatures. We will have multiple precipitation chances this week...but for now nothing too heavy. The 1st chance Sunday evening will be rain any chances both Tuesday through Thursday would be for snow. For snow lovers across the area the trend on the models is to keep most of the precipitation to the south and southeast of Chester County. That said - the NWS does have small chances of some snow both Tuesday night into Wednesday and on Thursday. By this Friday temps will likely stay below freezing for daytime highs.
The record high for today is 67 degrees set way back in 1914. The record low is 10 below zero from 1925. The record precip and snow was from the 2 day blizzard that began today in 1922 with 18" falling on the 28th and an additional 8" on the 29th equaling the 8th largest snowstorm in our history at 26" of snow. As you can see below on the observation notes from the observer Mr. W.T. Gordon the snow began overnight on the 28th and ended by 10:30am on the 29th. Of note Mr. Gordon was the Superintendent of the Coatesville School District. I found his name and some information from the year 1910 for the district. There were 1,762 students in the district and Mr. Gordon was paid an annual salary of $1,750. That is worth $259,394.26 in compensation today.image.thumb.png.348b6bf5e79d0e15e9cadaf8c58bf9fc.png
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15 hours ago, Albedoman said:

OMG. I have to wipe the tears out of my eyes from laughing so much. The point forecast for my house tonight is  literally a joke. No sunshine until Thursday. I edited it for your enjoyment too

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Tonight
Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 46. West wind 10 to 15 mph.  (So it is just  cloudy enough for you in the LV yet so we will keep increasing the clouds until it is?)
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. (Yep it is true, snow is not allow to accumulate for longer then 8 hours in the LV before melting away)
Sunday Night
A slight chance of showers before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday
A chance of snow showers, mixing with rain after 10am, then gradually ending. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%. 
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.  (whoopee -- ice  to deal with on my car  as the melted snow freezes- my favorite)
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 33. (Hot dam-- what the hell is that yellow ball in the sky that I see today?) 
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 33. (Finally all day sunshine but no again snow on the ground and now it  is below freezing for a high -- typical screw job)

About the only thing I have to contribute to this is, erm, this:

https://www.amazon.com/OxGord-Windshield-Removal-Protector-Scraping/dp/B01AOHYT50

You might feel like a doofus putting it on in the evening, but you'll thank past you the next morning when you can just pull it off, toss in the back seat, and go.

We got two inches of sloppy, wet snow last Wednesday that melted pretty fast, though that didn't stop all of my retired neighbors firing up their massive snowblowers. I was away on travel, but my wife finally got to try our new electric one (just for fun) and she said it worked great. 

yPU5wva.png

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Should have made the toss on 1/23 like I originally planned to. I ain’t sticking it out to 2/1. Here goes…

B2C437F6-4C64-46E3-BAB4-646EE1245C8D.jpeg.5e857575025ff18e8d800cedd526e9cd.jpeg

Your cartoon picture reminded me of "Schoolhouse Rock"...."I'm just a Bill".

Please no political crap here intended or implied! Ala wxtrix...

GO BIRDS!!!

46F

 

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I am actually shocked at the image from the 18Z GFS run i just observed below. I have been alive  for 64 years, lived in Wi, Tn, Ca and pretty much traveled throughout the country. Yet, it appears I will actually finally experience a great plain weather scene next weekend where the temps are near zero with no snow on the ground. I say good because every dam nuisance bug will be killed after that cold spell on our area  for sure, including the ash borer, box elders, stink bug, lantern fly and maybe some mosquitoes to boot. Finally something good to talk about in the pattern. I will be looking forward to less bugs

 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_28.png

 

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5 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I am actually shocked at the image from the 18Z GFS run i just observed below. I have been alive  for 64 years, lived in Wi, Tn, Ca and pretty much traveled throughout the country. Yet, it appears I will actually finally experience a great plain weather scene next weekend where the temps are near zero with no snow on the ground. I say good because every dam nuisance bug will be killed after that cold spell on our area  for sure, including the ash borer, box elders, stink bug, lantern fly and maybe some mosquitoes to boot. Finally something good to talk about in the pattern. I will be looking forward to less bugs

 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_28.png

 

Good discussion about this - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-coldest-air-january-2023-deep-freeze-snow-canada-united-states-mk/

Ralph-style anomaly map for next week's (probably transient) cold intrusion (from above linked discussion) -

 

winter-season-coldest-air-january-2023-d

This seems to be what is triggering suppression and the slider storms.

What is shocking is that only about 5% of the Great Lakes have ice coverage meaning any arctic intrusion is going to generate another massive lake-effect snow event.   But even with that, the handwriting on the wall with the MJO -

ensplume_full.gif

And the NAO -

nao.gfs.fcst-01292023.png

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8 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I am actually shocked at the image from the 18Z GFS run i just observed below. I have been alive  for 64 years, lived in Wi, Tn, Ca and pretty much traveled throughout the country. Yet, it appears I will actually finally experience a great plain weather scene next weekend where the temps are near zero with no snow on the ground. I say good because every dam nuisance bug will be killed after that cold spell on our area  for sure, including the ash borer, box elders, stink bug, lantern fly and maybe some mosquitoes to boot. Finally something good to talk about in the pattern. I will be looking forward to less bugs

 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_28.png

 

That will moderate and be nowhere near this cold. Ens means 0z and 6z already backed off.

Give me bugs, mud, cloudy, and 50s thru May and I'm fine. Yard work has been pleasant this winter. Built a new fence for a dog which my family is trying to adopt, finished a deck, laid concrete, had 8 tons of gravel delivered and just finished spreading on my driveway, installed security light, stained some wood, painted. I found some ways to NOT be let down during this abysmal winter. Maybe we back into some convoluted fluke March storm but otherwise this season is likely toast. Rooting for a shutout the rest of the way....warmer ocean temps have me ready for some early spring surf fishing for blues, stripers, and weakfish.

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A pretty cloudy stretch of weather till about Wednesday but with mild temperatures continuing until a chill down to normal by Tuesday and then below normal for the rest of the week. It may very briefly turn very cold on Friday and especially Saturday morning could see temps in the single digits. We have a couple slight chances at precipitation both this afternoon in the form of rain showers and a slight chance of snow showers on Tuesday night into Wednesday AM....but as usual this season no accumulation!
The record high for today is 69 degrees from 1947. Our record low is 7 below zero from 1928. Daily precipitation mark is the 1.46" from 1990 and the daily snow record is the 13" of snow that fell today in 1966 - that storm ended the following day with 14" of snow making it the 9th largest snowstorm in January weather history for our county. Oh and Go Birds!!
image.png.8ef35f3b6da72fbb3cb362c7dc111566.png
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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oddly, the ICON, RGEM, and GGEM all want to snow here on Wednesday. No other piece of guidance is even remotely close. So I'm going to go out on a limb and say the ICON and CMC family cave to the others over the next few model runs.

The RGEM has been great recently.  Way better then the nam an gfs

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8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The uber cold being forecast for next Saturday came out of left field. Weather World didn't have it in the forecast and focused on the return of warmth after next weekend. Then again they slightly missed on their cold January forecast..

 

 

 

I had seen a -25 current temp for International Falls, MN early this morning and their HWO is calling for possible Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings every day through to next Saturday.  They even have one of these on their 7-day forecast page -

cold.png

Don't recall ever seeing that one here. :lol:

Had a 33 low this morning and it's currently overcast and 49 with dp 36.

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16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I had seen a -25 current temp for International Falls, MN early this morning and their HWO is calling for possible Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings every day through to next Saturday.  They even have one of these on their 7-day forecast page -

cold.png

Don't recall ever seeing that one here. :lol:

Had a 33 low this morning and it's currently overcast and 49 with dp 36.

Those icicles are frozen SIDEWAYS - that's when you know it's serious cold hope she gets inside

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RGEM says we back into a minor event Wednesday AM. Latest NAM just starting to get precip into our area last run. Interesting trends....GFS/EURO still want nothing to do with it.

image000000.gif

RGEM been solid lately.  I'm down at my parents in galloway in Atlantic county this week. Hopefully see some snow falling atleast

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1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

RGEM been solid lately.  I'm down at my parents in galloway in Atlantic county this week. Hopefully see some snow falling atleast

ICON went the other way....much drier. Maybe the Euro and icon are trying to meet in the middle? RGEM likely too aggressive. Might back into a car topper type deal down here in SE PA. We'll see.

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON went the other way....much drier. Maybe the Euro and icon are trying to meet in the middle? RGEM likely too aggressive. Might back into a car topper type deal down here in SE PA. We'll see.

Exactly like Christmas snow event --dusting to an inch and thats it . Wishcasting these models now will not work.

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