Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[canderson]

Just now, paweather said:

Do we go to cold and dry next week UGH!!!

Looks more warm and dry after the bitter weekend, no? New Years looks balmy. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Looks more warm and dry after the bitter weekend, no? New Years looks balmy. 

Haven’t looked make sense to this winter I hope to get a couple of inches by March. 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Haven’t looked make sense to this winter I hope to get a couple of inches by March. 

Last year suuuuuucked. If we get another dud I give up on winter every happening again every minus some random freak 10” storm. 

[anotherman]

[anotherman]

Eagles, Eagles, Eagles.   Anotherman approved post. 

13-1!

[Blizzard of 93]

It’s Not what we wanted considering what was on the table for later this week a few days ago….but it should be a crazy few days of weather around Christmas.

Thursday

A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm, then rain. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night

Rain. Low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday

Rain before 1pm, then rain and snow showers likely. High near 47. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 20. Breezy. 

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Christmas Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 21.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

25 and frosty this morning. 

It's been years since we've had a frontal passage accompanied by a sharp temp drop - much more common back in the 70 and 80s. I'm not talking about going from 65 to 44, I'm referring to 40 degree drops like what we might see this week. At least it's something interesting to watch for. 

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

25 and frosty this morning. 

It's been years since we've had a frontal passage accompanied by a sharp temp drop - much more common back in the 70 and 80s. I'm not talking about going from 65 to 44, I'm referring to 40 degree drops like what we might see this week. At least it's something interesting to watch for. 

If we have a flash freeze with some snow, lookout for possible trouble on the Pa. interstates and other roads for that matter.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mahantango#1 said:

If we have a flash freeze with some snow, lookout for possible trouble on the Pa. interstates and other roads for that matter.

We had a really bad one back in winter 2004/2005.    Closed several roads for a few hours.  I was on 83 coming north out of MD and the police blocked the road around the Shrewsbury/Stewtown exit. 

[anotherman]

25 and frosty this morning. 
It's been years since we've had a frontal passage accompanied by a sharp temp drop - much more common back in the 70 and 80s. I'm not talking about going from 65 to 44, I'm referring to 40 degree drops like what we might see this week. At least it's something interesting to watch for. 

Yeah it’s a long shot, but if we can get an inch of snow with frigid temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas that would be amazing.

[Atomixwx]

I imagine by midweek, that cold will be muted and we'll be looking at just rain and wind. Two Christmases ago we had rain and wind.

Addressing the "Two feet of pattern" comment from yesterday. I know this would essentially kill our hobby, but I find myself becoming less and less interested in the models. I feel like the process of weather has become cynical from the perspective of, "I see this, so if this doesn't pan out, cancel season," and it almost never works out that way. This allows our pessimistic nature to take over and we become sour towards ourselves and others. And I think that is what has made life post-traditional media so toxic.

Like, and this isn't a personal thing with Blizz, but I tire of seeing the 280 hour wet dreams knowing that I'm not even going to wake up with sticky pants. And now I've just got this rage boner and no hole to slot it in. I think that's why I'm less and less in the know over the last several years (this began while I was still living in the Cumberland valley lol) and spend more time reading MAG's write-ups than I do actually trying to look at and get a feel for the model runs.

But that's just me. I could be wrong.

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[pasnownut]

9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Come on man, I’m clearly having fun….

The 84 hour NAM & extrapolated NAM is a long running joke all across all weather boards…

Relax, I promise it will snow this season !

NAM extrapolated would be used 2x...both by me.  Not dozens.  Let him search. 

We know its a joke, but he thinks its actually us trying to "forecast"....LMAO

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I imagine by midweek, that cold will be muted and we'll be looking at just rain and wind. Two Christmases ago we had rain and wind.

Addressing the "Two feet of pattern" comment from yesterday. I know this would essentially kill our hobby, but I find myself becoming less and less interested in the models. I feel like the process of weather has become cynical from the perspective of, "I see this, so if this doesn't pan out, cancel season," and it almost never works out that way. This allows our pessimistic nature to take over and we become sour towards ourselves and others. And I think that is what has made life post-traditional media so toxic.

Like, and this isn't a personal thing with Blizz, but I tire of seeing the 280 hour wet dreams knowing that I'm not even going to wake up with sticky pants. And now I've just got this rage boner and no hole to slot it in. I think that's why I'm less and less in the know over the last several years (this began while I was still living in the Cumberland valley lol) and spend more time reading MAG's write-ups than I do actually trying to look at and get a feel for the model runs.

But that's just me. I could be wrong.

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I could not possibly agree more with you on every point and at every level of your post. It's way bigger and way deeper than jaded weenies on a weather board.

[pasnownut]

8 hours ago, canderson said:

Last year suuuuuucked. If we get another dud I give up on winter every happening again every minus some random freak 10” storm. 

I emotionally no longer "invest" near as much mental capital as I used to.  I love the chase (like many here) but wont waste my life behind a computer, (or lose sleep) over snow, and yes, I still love it as much as I ever have.  I just don't get the ROI that makes it worth it.  I enjoy the chatter/lead up to storms in here almost as much/more than the snow itself.  Thats really why I'm here (and not to raise hype, but look for patterns that may bring the goods). 

Many of us have done this for over a decade and are a wierd/disfunctional/whacked family of sorts (JOIKING.....sorta ). 

Thats the fun for me....and in truth, getting trolled of late....meh.  I'm too old for sideshow BS.  I havent forgot that I still owe you a beer.  We should sneak out for one over lunch this week as I'm playin santa and have been on the road lots.  Could sneat that in. 

[pasnownut]

48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

25 and frosty this morning. 

It's been years since we've had a frontal passage accompanied by a sharp temp drop - much more common back in the 70 and 80s. I'm not talking about going from 65 to 44, I'm referring to 40 degree drops like what we might see this week. At least it's something interesting to watch for. 

the plus's are that several A team models are showing anafrontal snows, and they look rather stout as currently depicted.  Yes, we all know they usually dont work down here.  MAG of course knows that, but he too thinks it a legit threat.  I guess its all we have to "look forward to" winter wise (unless you like cold n dry....(without snow...meh).

 

[Bubbler86]

24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I could not possibly agree more with you on every point and at every level of your post. It's way bigger and way deeper than jaded weenies on a weather board.

I personally do not mind the maps as much as the way they are presented sometimes.   I think the words will, guarantee, is happening, etc....should be removed from the vernacular of someone posting model output.  The 60 hour Nam is just as valuable as the 120 hour GFS and that applies to any model in either of those slots. I find it fun to see how and why models map out a situation which is really the tracking aspect of it.   If someone like flatheaded posts a map, it is just as valuable and valid as any red tagger IMO.  

For those that forecast in any capacity, the tracking probably has to take a back seat to much more grounded knowledge of model biases.

[pasnownut]

28 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I imagine by midweek, that cold will be muted and we'll be looking at just rain and wind. Two Christmases ago we had rain and wind.

Addressing the "Two feet of pattern" comment from yesterday. I know this would essentially kill our hobby, but I find myself becoming less and less interested in the models. I feel like the process of weather has become cynical from the perspective of, "I see this, so if this doesn't pan out, cancel season," and it almost never works out that way. This allows our pessimistic nature to take over and we become sour towards ourselves and others. And I think that is what has made life post-traditional media so toxic.

Like, and this isn't a personal thing with Blizz, but I tire of seeing the 280 hour wet dreams knowing that I'm not even going to wake up with sticky pants. And now I've just got this rage boner and no hole to slot it in. I think that's why I'm less and less in the know over the last several years (this began while I was still living in the Cumberland valley lol) and spend more time reading MAG's write-ups than I do actually trying to look at and get a feel for the model runs.

But that's just me. I could be wrong.

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I just posted some thoughts and went back and saw this post.  Great points man.

We all know that save 1 or 2, that all of us are weather nerds at different levels of knowledge/interest.  I think all of us know that while we take weather seriously, we are doing this just for fun (except red taggers).  I look up to them, but down at NOONE here.  And we all know (or should by now) that 90% of any 240+ hr map is merely shown for fun and not forecast. Its shown to share POTENTIAL-good or bad.  Blizz surely knows this...we all do.  

JMO's but I agree w/ alot of what you said.  

[Voyager]

So since wind (and cold) seem to be the headlines for this storm, how strong will the winds be? 

[Albedoman]

well, these weather amateur modeologists are finally seeing what happens when you track storms 8-10 days out within the last few years. They fail- every single time. The only useful model is the reining mesocscale map  the King- the NAM.   These long range models should be thrown in the garbage for storm prediction. They are strictly guidance for future weather patterns- thats it. I think anybody who post these  long range clown maps that are 10-15 days out from the GFS, CMC  and Euro out should be immediately thrown in the banter thread.  Stop relying on them to predict short range storms. Personally, the threads with their appropriate posts should be divided up LR ( long range) and SR (short range) on this site.  Let the snow weenies die on the vine in the LR threads and it would restore confidence in the accuracy of the posts

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Well, it looks like another threat washed away.  No worries, ours will come.  I will say, an H850 spread of 10 to -20 degrees across Pennsylvania on Friday would be evidence of one heck of an "I mean business" arctic front.  Always love when those real-deal fronts come through, as @Itstrainingtime was alluding to.  Could lead to some surprises and either way is an interesting feature to monitor.  Name of the game will be cold, which is never a bad thing around Xmas.  Now we just need to find some white.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

I imagine by midweek, that cold will be muted and we'll be looking at just rain and wind. Two Christmases ago we had rain and wind.

Addressing the "Two feet of pattern" comment from yesterday. I know this would essentially kill our hobby, but I find myself becoming less and less interested in the models. I feel like the process of weather has become cynical from the perspective of, "I see this, so if this doesn't pan out, cancel season," and it almost never works out that way. This allows our pessimistic nature to take over and we become sour towards ourselves and others. And I think that is what has made life post-traditional media so toxic.

Like, and this isn't a personal thing with Blizz, but I tire of seeing the 280 hour wet dreams knowing that I'm not even going to wake up with sticky pants. And now I've just got this rage boner and no hole to slot it in. I think that's why I'm less and less in the know over the last several years (this began while I was still living in the Cumberland valley lol) and spend more time reading MAG's write-ups than I do actually trying to look at and get a feel for the model runs.

But that's just me. I could be wrong.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Putting aside the solid content of this post, the use of the term "rage boner" has to be worthy of some sort of award!  I know I'll be adding it to my everyday vernacular going forward 

[Atomixwx]

well, these weather amateur modeologists are finally seeing what happens when you track storms 8-10 days out within the last few years. They fail- every single time. The only useful model is the reining mesocscale map  the King- the NAM.   These long range models should be thrown in the garbage for storm prediction. They are strictly guidance for future weather patterns- thats it. I think anybody who post these  long range clown maps that are 10-15 days out from the GFS, CMC  and Euro out should be immediately thrown in the banter thread.  Stop relying on them to predict short range storms. Personally, the threads with their appropriate posts should be divided up LR ( long range) and SR (short range) on this site.  Let the snow weenies die on the vine in the LR threads and it would restore confidence in the accuracy of the posts

I received a lifetime ban from the AccuWeather forums for telling weenies to stop wishcasting. I hate it. I was in my mid-twenties when that went down and I've only become more of a codger, but I don't necessarily think we need to relegate that into the dumpster heap of banter.

My telling @canderson I am going to wide-shaft his wife, mother, and his entire family tree during the height of a Storm Mode model PBP is banter.

"Let's look at the 300 hour model" is not. As useless as it is, this forum gets a lot more quiet if we red card these posts to the toybox.

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[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Putting aside the solid content of this post, the use of the term "rage boner" has to be worthy of some sort of award!  I know I'll be adding it to my everyday vernacular going forward 

With Lancaster being part of the area posters live, how has Blue Ball not been mentioned yet in respect to Atomics post?   :-) 

[Atomixwx]

With Lancaster being part of the area posters live, how has Blue Ball not been mentioned yet in respect to Atomics post?   :-) 

Because a Bird-in-Hand is generally the first step in getting to Intercourse.

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[Atomixwx]

Now we just need to find some white.

You're in Mount Joy. Shouldn't be too hard to find all of the white.

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[pasnownut]

41 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

well, these weather amateur modeologists are finally seeing what happens when you track storms 8-10 days out within the last few years. They fail- every single time. The only useful model is the reining mesocscale map  the King- the NAM.   These long range models should be thrown in the garbage for storm prediction. They are strictly guidance for future weather patterns- thats it. I think anybody who post these  long range clown maps that are 10-15 days out from the GFS, CMC  and Euro out should be immediately thrown in the banter thread.  Stop relying on them to predict short range storms. Personally, the threads with their appropriate posts should be divided up LR ( long range) and SR (short range) on this site.  Let the snow weenies die on the vine in the LR threads and it would restore confidence in the accuracy of the posts

with all due respect....tell us something we didnt already know.  Its a general winter disco board. 

Some of you need to stop acting like this is a NWS forecast page where all info is being shared to the media outlets.  For all of us regulars...we know what this thread is, and none here (pro or otherwise) has the ability to accurately post anything w/ confidence beyond 5-7 days in many instances.  

We cant even get a banter thread...let alone a LR and SR thread...LMAO but thanks for stopping in tho.........LOL

Your welcome to post here, but if the content bothers you, go back to Philly thread.  

[pasnownut]

33 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Putting aside the solid content of this post, the use of the term "rage boner" has to be worthy of some sort of award!  I know I'll be adding it to my everyday vernacular going forward 

yeah, I'm not even sure what that is.....its ok, dont tell me.

I may need some "everyday vernacular" to liven things up a bit.  SMH and lol

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

You're in Mount Joy. Shouldn't be too hard to find all of the white.

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I saw some on a 240+ LR map.  Wanna see it?

 

[Atomixwx]

I saw some on a 240+ LR map.  Wanna see it?
 

Why are we not looking at it right now? I want to have to peel the white off of my shorts when I wake up.

And if that makes anybody uneasy. Tough. If it's ruined your breakfast, eat before ten. This isn't Sunday. Breakfast with Jesus is only on Sunday. Eat at 8 like a normal person on Monday.

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[pasnownut]

and on a short term map....I found a dry slot.   

Wanna see that too??