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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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Another week of wasted opportunities seems to be in the offing this week as we eventually settle into a seasonably cold regime this week after the weak system today into Monday. Split flow with an active southern stream should be a recipe for some success with some cold available for a change but models have been generally insistent on not even partially phasing anything enough to bring precip into our region and keeping these southern stream systems in pieces and disorganized. I do think that Feb 2-4 period still has the best chance at maybe getting something up here with that particular wave.

Lost in the spring fling in here and what may squash that particular wave is a very brief but significant arctic shot on the models next weekend that glances C-PA but targets the interior northeast directly with  some -30ºF and less ACTUAL temps Sat morning in far northern Upstate NY and interior New England.  Euro is a bit more widespread into PA with the arctic air and barely gets much of PA into the teens during the Saturday. GFS is warmer but still much chillier than what CTP has in their grids. Both have below zero temps to start Saturday in at least the northern half of PA. I’d imagine they may want to consider bumping down temps in their grids in that parcticular time period. 

 

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21 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Another week of wasted opportunities seems to be in the offing this week as we eventually settle into a seasonably cold regime this week after the weak system today into Monday. Split flow with an active southern stream should be a recipe for some success with some cold available for a change but models have been generally insistent on not even partially phasing anything enough to bring precip into our region and keeping these southern stream systems in pieces and disorganized. I do think that Feb 2-4 period still has the best chance at maybe getting something up here with that particular wave.

Lost in the spring fling in here and what may squash that particular wave is a very brief but significant arctic shot on the models next weekend that glances C-PA but targets the interior northeast directly with  some -30ºF and less ACTUAL temps Sat morning in far northern Upstate NY and interior New England.  Euro is a bit more widespread into PA with the arctic air and barely gets much of PA into the teens during the Saturday. GFS is warmer but still much chillier than what CTP has in their grids. Both have below zero temps to start Saturday in at least the northern half of PA. I’d imagine they may want to consider bumping down temps in their grids in that parcticular time period. 

 

Those temps have been showing up for quite some time, though recessing farther and farther north from before when @CarlislePaWx and some others mentioned.   They are pretty incredible for little to no snow cover (even far NE US) and Canada can keep them IMO.  :-).  At one point one member of the EPQ had -30 over the LSV. 

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One sentence from Bob Chill on the MA board.  Common sense IMO but people seem to listen to him, so this advice carries some weight as to punting snow chances for the season when still in January.   We are entering the snowiest month of the year next week. 

Bob Chill-

There's literally 7 weeks of solid snow climo left. Especially for bigger events. This is the beginning of prime time for that. It could easily snow here this year and we can get a big storm.

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10 hours ago, canderson said:

CTP wants zero to do with any preicp chance (after a change of showers tomorrow am) through the next 10 days it sounds like. Winter chances ticking away with a warm February upcoming. 

Yeah I want to agree but will hold onto hope through February mid March unless I cancel winter for the 1000th tine. :D

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I can’t believe that no one posted the 0z GFS. It shows the Winter storm chance next Sunday into Monday that a few Euro & GFS runs have shown on & off over the last few days.

The 0z GFS had a I-81 special next Sunday.

 

 

 

By the time I saw it the MA board had tossed it in lieu of only one GEFS member showing it.   

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT's low of 28 this AM, 4 degrees colder than CXY, will go a long way to limiting their chance to make this the second warmest Jan in recorded history despite the chance of hitting 60 tomorrow.   They stand at 39.6 now and will probably drop a bit today and Tue. 

CTP has MDT getting no where near 60 tomorrow. This is their point & click near MDT tomorrow.

Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

 

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A pretty cloudy stretch of weather till about Wednesday but with mild temperatures continuing until a chill down to normal by Tuesday and then below normal for the rest of the week. It may very briefly turn very cold on Friday and especially Saturday morning could see temps in the single digits. We have a couple slight chances at precipitation both this afternoon in the form of rain showers and a slight chance of snow showers on Tuesday night into Wednesday AM....but as usual this season no accumulation!
The record high for today is 69 degrees from 1947. Our record low is 7 below zero from 1928. Daily precipitation mark is the 1.46" from 1990 and the daily snow record is the 13" of snow that fell today in 1966 - that storm ended the following day with 14" of snow making it the 9th largest snowstorm in January weather history for our county. Oh and Go Birds!!
image.png.8ef35f3b6da72fbb3cb362c7dc111566.png
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39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

They have given up down there, that’s great!

Guess what, we don’t live down there!

I was mentioning why I did not post it...if I post a model with no ensemble support, some people do not like it and now I am not right for skipping one that had little ensemble support?  

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