Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 The 12z GEFS took a step in the wrong direction. Still some ensemble members that can work for us, but it trended the wrong way this run, with more inland/cutter tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z GEFS still shows there are ways to score good snow even if we don’t get the best solution/track this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'm in week #1 of fantasy playoffs. I have Jalen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Tua Tagovailoa, and Gabe Davis on my rosters. Tua is backup to Jalen Hurts, and Mostert is a backup to the Davis kid from Green Bay, but Davis and Waddle see time every week. Except this one. My opponent has Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, and hopefully no clue. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Same here with week one and my opponent has Tua and waddle. Not sure what to think about the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Same here with week one and my opponent has Tua and waddle. Not sure what to think about the game.Waddle is relatively useless even in dry conditions. So expect him to go off tonight just to burn my ass.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Waddle is relatively useless even in dry conditions. So expect him to go off tonight just to burn my ass. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Burn both our asses. That damn waddle walk. Still torn on Davis. He has not had a good week in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 The 12z Euro shows that we can still score a little snow out of this if the track ends up this way. There is the chance of a little front end snow from the initial coastal. Then, as the Arctic front approaches, there may be energy left behind for a period of snow as the front crosses & temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z Euro snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 48 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z Euro snow map. Guess we take it so disappointing after an initial excitement of the GFS I hope this isn’t the lead way all of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 29 minutes ago, paweather said: Guess we take it so disappointing after an initial excitement of the GFS I hope this isn’t the lead way all of winter How many times has this road been taken, though? So many storms 7-10 days out looked great, only to go bad prior to game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, Voyager said: How many times has this road been taken, though? So many storms 7-10 days out looked great, only to go bad prior to game time. It seemingly happens 8 or 9 out of 10 times whether leaning on ensembles or ops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It seemingly happens 8 or 9 out of 10 times whether leaning on ensembles or ops. Sure does... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Sure does... With that said, it is only Saturday. Just like a HECS being shown now, a no go being shown can revert back. Lots of twitter mets may throw it under the bus and say it is over but being a met that makes predicts a week out is guaranteed of one thing...being wrong a lot (no offense). We can look at models as of now and make determinations based on what they show today but like the ensembles, just one small change in an environmental situation can butterfly effect itself into a totally different result 5 days from now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I'm patiently waiting to complete my annual snow mow. Am I going to have to wait until January? I don't ever remember doing that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: With that said, it is only Saturday. Just like a HECS being shown now, a no go being shown can revert back. Lots of twitter mets may throw it under the bus and say it is over but being a met that makes predicts a week out is guaranteed of one thing...being wrong a lot (no offense). We can look at models as of now and make determinations based on what they show today but like the ensembles, just one small change in an environmental situation can butterfly effect itself into a totally different result 5 days from now. This is true, but it seems to hold truer with out to sea solutions coming back to the coast. Over the years, it seemed more often than not, once they cut, they don't come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: This is true, but it seems to hold truer with out to sea solutions coming back to the coast. Over the years, it seemed more often than not, once they cut, they don't come back. My hope/thought on this one is that it is Miller/new formation type situation so too early to count it out. If a low was forming in the heartland and cutting, yea it might be more clear. Scanning through the 12Z GFS and watching the evolution, there are 3 areas of energy in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Several in the MA thread are throwing the towel in for Dec. Kind of crazy. It is Dec 17th. Our forecasting technology has trouble getting 24 hours forecasts correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Looks like it is still snowing in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Several in the MA thread are throwing the towel in for Dec. Kind of crazy. It is Dec 17th. Our forecasting technology has trouble getting 24 hours forecasts correct. Who knows even what tomorrow's runs will bring? Lots can happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Looks like it is still snowing in Buffalo. I almost took a bath on Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Atomixwx said: I almost took a bath on Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I have Cook. HIs TD only happened because of an instant replay on Ryans Qb sneak. The Colts have made a season out of choking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Well something had to give with this, during the 0z suite last night we had the GFS low in Cape Hatteras while the Euro/CMC had it in Michigan. Of course the GFS joins the party today cutting what looks like is going to be quite a strong storm. As was mentioned, western ridge axis is being progged too far west to allow for the coastal solution. Barring any wholesale changes back the other way, I see two opportunities for frozen with this whole thing. Up front, where the GFS/Euro have been developing this wave on the coast in front of the main vigorous shortwave that becomes the big storm bringing precip into C-PA. This looked more like the Thur/Thur night timeframe. There will be decent high pressure (retreating) to the N and NE so anything associated with that may start as frozen, especially interior counties. Unfortunately with how things are being progged now with all 3 major models (with ensemble support), the vigorous shortwave digs and head towards the Lakes, which will draw up warmer air for a brief time (likely for about 12 hrs or so) sometime from Thur night into Friday. The second opportunity comes after the frontal passage, which looks like an anafrontal type scenario… something that could deliver snowfall for several hours behind the front. The cold air associated with this system will mean business and there looks to be rapid temp drops behind the front. Whatever gets on the ground from that will definitely be there come Christmas morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Who knows even what tomorrow's runs will bring? Lots can happen. We got to 47 today. A 5-10 degree bust by the models only 6 hours back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well something had to give with this, during the 0z suite last night we had the GFS low in Cape Hatteras while the Euro/CMC had it in Michigan. Of course the GFS joins the party today cutting what looks like is going to be quite a strong storm. As was mentioned, western ridge axis is being progged too far west to allow for the coastal solution. Barring any wholesale changes back the other way, I see two opportunities for frozen with this whole thing. Up front, where the GFS/Euro have been developing this wave on the coast in front of the main vigorous shortwave that becomes the big storm bringing precip into C-PA. There will be decent high pressure (retreating) to the N and NE so anything associated with that may start as frozen, especially interior counties. Unfortunately with how things are being progged now with all 3 major models (with ensemble support), the vigorous shortwave digs and head towards the Lakes, which will draw up warmer air for a brief time (likely for about 12 hrs or so). The second opportunity comes after the frontal passage, which looks like an anafrontal type scenario… something that could deliver snowfall for several hours behind the front. The cold air associated with this system will mean business and there looks to be rapid temp drops behind the front. Whatever gets on the ground from that will definitely be there come Christmas morning. The LSV does anafrontal snow like no ones business (not). No offense to your thoughts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: My hope/thought on this one is that it is Miller/new formation type situation so too early to count it out. If a low was forming in the heartland and cutting, yea it might be more clear. Scanning through the 12Z GFS and watching the evolution, there are 3 areas of energy in play. This is a great point. Many moving parts to dissect with this setup. 18z at 120 shows SLP forming in Gulf. Wasnt there prior. I suggested earlier that it didnt make sense to see the heartland cutter (in my mind). I like that and think it may be a way to salvage this deal. Guess we'll find out how it plays out in a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well something had to give with this, during the 0z suite last night we had the GFS low in Cape Hatteras while the Euro/CMC had it in Michigan. Of course the GFS joins the party today cutting what looks like is going to be quite a strong storm. As was mentioned, western ridge axis is being progged too far west to allow for the coastal solution. Barring any wholesale changes back the other way, I see two opportunities for frozen with this whole thing. Up front, where the GFS/Euro have been developing this wave on the coast in front of the main vigorous shortwave that becomes the big storm bringing precip into C-PA. This looked more like the Thur/Thur night timeframe. There will be decent high pressure (retreating) to the N and NE so anything associated with that may start as frozen, especially interior counties. Unfortunately with how things are being progged now with all 3 major models (with ensemble support), the vigorous shortwave digs and head towards the Lakes, which will draw up warmer air for a brief time (likely for about 12 hrs or so) sometime from Thur night into Friday. The second opportunity comes after the frontal passage, which looks like an anafrontal type scenario… something that could deliver snowfall for several hours behind the front. The cold air associated with this system will mean business and there looks to be rapid temp drops behind the front. Whatever gets on the ground from that will definitely be there come Christmas morning. thanks for the thoughts Mag. I think what "got" some of us was 500's looking good regarding ridge/trough axis on some ens guidance, and the hope was (for me anyway) was for a correction towards them. I'm gonna eat a little crow and say that the GFS ens guidance has trended away for coastal solutions and have gone towards the cmc/euro cutter looks. Not sure where we need to look to find signals right now tbh. Yes, I'm gonna get bashed, but the tellies IMO argued for a better solution (although most recent runs show AO/NAO headed twds neutral, so maybe that it s the catalyst for increased ridging now showing on most guidance? If you've got anything to add/share regarding this mess...I'm all ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 gfs at 144 takes SLP to Buffalo, then pops a secondary off Chessy bay at 150 and saves us all w/ a turnover to give a white christmas to most of the state. huhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 hours ago, paweather said: Guess we take it so disappointing after an initial excitement of the GFS I hope this isn’t the lead way all of winter Hopefully not :/ Euro is showing us torching the beginning of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: gfs at 144 takes SLP to Buffalo, then pops a secondary off Chessy bay at 150 and saves us all w/ a turnover to give a white christmas to most of the state. huhhh I just was perusing, and was going to post that 18z looked a tad bit better than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I just was perusing, and was going to post that 18z looked a tad bit better than 12z. Time for the 12Z Blues to go away in lieu of the 18Z HH ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We look to go back to the 40s right after the only 2 days of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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