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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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2 hours ago, pawatch said:

A lot of model runs until Thursday. Probably going to be some wiggle wiggle between now and then.

Lets see how consistent the model runs are.

It was already happening today with weather.com's 14 day forecast for Williamsport. Between 3:00 and 5:30 it went from maybe 6-8 for next week to between 12-18 and back down again. Yeah I could not believe Thurs night suddenly was 8-12 -- and then everything back down. 

This past storm was a real pain with changing or not changing and not going as predicted. NWS kept calling for about double what we got way past the point yesterday they should have changed. 

I hope we don't have 6 days of extreme seesawing like that but we shall see. 

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Good post from a good poster from another forum :

“Honestly I take the 18z GFS/GEFS as a win. It is still handling the TPV completely different vs other models. However, since we’re not getting a really good cold shot prior to main wave need the main shortwave to not come into conus as strong as 18z gfs had it. This run wasn’t far from a big hit imo

18z GEFS much snowier vs 12z

im telling ya guys, that wasn’t a cave. Not even close”

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6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

According to JB this evening, he sounded like he was giving up on a total snow event too. But we'll see, there are many days to go till it gets here. Many model runs, and many stressed people.

Jb is as wrong (or right)  as anyone else who tries to guess weather a week away.   But yea lots of runs to go. 

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CTP's early forecast for Tamaqua for the late week event. Take it with a grain of salt, as it will likely change somewhat, but I guess it's their current feelings based on current model output AND meteorological knowledge. 

Wednesday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

According to JB this evening, he sounded like he was giving up on a total snow event too. But we'll see, there are many days to go till it gets here. Many model runs, and many stressed people.

Here is a small part of JB’s post from this afternoon: 

“remember all these changes to rain on the coast and with good reason. The ridge was back near Boise. The rule is Grand junction longitude for the coast if full amplification So while it will snow in the big cites at the start and end and we may have a real doozy of a freeze up, I think it will change to sleet and rain for a time.”

He said this storm reminded him of the Blizzard of March 93, Feb of 72 & January of 66. His quote above referenced these storms that changed to mix & rain on the coast & I-95.

 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yesterday the op's were not good enough and we should lean on ensembles....today one or two op's show rain and there is a run on the bank (no offense to anyone just, a general sense).   Has much really changed over the last 24 hours?  

Good points, 24 to 48 hours ago the Euro & Canadian both had good snow runs for us.

Lots still to be resolved. 

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This from DT’s blog this evening:

“Therefore at this time I do not consider the12z Fri operational European in the Canadian models to be Valid. Of course, I could be wrong.

Patterns / wave physics over models!”

 

DT like it. And he is right 6 days out. 

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we all have this sinking feeling in our stomachs we know its going to go way west and be like in west of lake erie even tho the current set up doesnt support this it has happened in the past sadly we all hate app cutters but this happens more often then not. its what the models do sadly.

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good points, 24 to 48 hours ago the Euro & Canadian both had good snow runs for us.

Lots still to be resolved. 

I just think both "sets of data" (ops and ensembles) have their place and are both valuable 3, 5, 7, 10 days out and like you said, not much has changed since yesterday with lots to be resolved.   The scenario that gives us a Hec's is truly a hope and pray timing scenario that could have ensembles and op's showing 2 feet until 24 hours before and it still fail to produce. 

And on a somewhat personal note, I still have some thought that a Hec's the day or two before Christmas will cause a lot of families to miss their loved ones for the holiday so if it happens, it happens...not going to wish against it, but if a frontal passage of 2-4" happens then it is White Christmas and still family time, not going to fret and feel bad.  Good to have something to track though 

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1 minute ago, Ruin said:

we all have this sinking feeling in our stomachs we know its going to go way west and be like in west of lake erie even tho the current set up doesnt support this it has happened in the past sadly we all hate app cutters but this happens more often then not. its what the models do sadly.

Don’t be a Debbie Downer! It’s 6 days out let’s see what the weekend brings 

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