paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This Kuch snow map backs the razor thin thought process. Long duration event. Thur AM into Friday afternoon. That is a good map for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 That is a good map for usSpeak for yourself Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Certainly, a bump in the right direction on the GFS. Let's see what the other models do. Without any of the blocking I'd be close to punting this one due to the usual nwest trend, but this is a unique set-up. Still lots of time to go. Well said....well said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Seeing post above about long duration event and timing of it....no matter what falls IMBY, its a perfect time for it to happen, and will make it feel rather festive for many here. Great stuff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 The 12z Fighting Manitoba's show a sleet bomb followed by a period of rain for most of the LSV, FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 CMC and Icon had some good and bad to them, but I'd say they both pop the secondary in a tad better position for coastal fun, and thermals also were a tad better. Not great, but better, and better is better than bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The 12z Fighting Manitoba's show a sleet bomb followed by a period of rain for most of the LSV, FWIW. I am still "suspicious" of a lot of snow for the LSV. Any kind of SW flow affecting the thermals worries me above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 A good signal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 So have to drive to PHL Thursday mid afternoon, and return around midnight (so get back to HBG at 1:45 am or whatever). Should I go ahead and plan to bag this trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, paweather said: A good signal: That would suck for Christmas travel. (Ice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That would suck for Christmas travel. (Ice) Just a signal for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: A good signal: Kinda depends on where that high is going - if it's escaping off the east coast, maybe notsomuch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I am declaring an end to all tracking. The 12z Ukie has spoken. This will unquestionably be the final solution. You can put it on the board. All joking aside, this actually seems like a reasonable depiction ha. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, paweather said: A good signal: If only it could come true. Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If only it could come true. Wow The panels after this one is major ice. But we are so far out so just pointing to the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Kinda depends on where that high is going - if it's escaping off the east coast, maybe notsomuch. verbatim, follow up wave saves the day and many get snow, but yeah IF GFS evolution was legit (and 500's are notably different w/ Op less blocky, and ensembles showin blocking still nicely anchored to our N. That said, I'd just want that storm to show up and would think it a crowd pleaser for many stocking would be filled w/ snow (from shoveling of course) - not the ones on the mantle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, paweather said: The panels after this one is major ice. But we are so far out so just pointing to the signal. Signals are all we can look for beyond 7 days....and the signals are for lots of tracking coming up for many. "Verbatim" analysis post 240 should ALWAYS be taken w/ this. BTW, go to 500 maps and look at Op vs ENS for said timestamp....you'll like the ENS much more. Now mind you w/ Op being notably "off" vs Ens, that adds even more salt to the convo, as the Op may not be reflective of upper air pattern, and hence why what it is showing for said timestamp may likely be bunk. Or the Op is correct and we get rain down here again. Gut says no, but that could be the sub I just ate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Euro ticked N w/ coastal...so did precious thermals here in LSV. While I'm pooh poohing the outcome, it is a believable one for the SE third of PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Euro ticked N w/ coastal...so did precious thermals here in LSV. While I'm pooh poohing the outcome, it is a believable one for the SE third of PA. Not good...UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, paweather said: Not good...UGH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Well at least we get some winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Well at least we get some winter weather. Decent period of ice but 2M temps above 30 for the LSV. Could be underdoing CAD for the main LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I'll allow it. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Decent period of ice but 2M temps above 30 for the LSV. Could be underdoing CAD for the main LSV. Yep so much like a sloppy mess Thursday and Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, Atomixwx said: I'll allow it. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Can you throw some down my way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, paweather said: Well at least we get some winter weather. i did not look at the snow maps...just surface, but upon doing so....should restate SE 1/4 of pa does not approve. all you in betweeners....sorry for misleading. Isnt that called "taint" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I keep hoping for big events for you guys. Perhaps a couple of big snowstorms and my wife will say screw it, I'm moving out to Arizona... Doubt it, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 All I want for Christmas...is a storm where we can actually use the TT snow maps. TT is the smoother of the two between it and Pivotal...but the majority of the storms we have faced recently are not clean and the TT maps are worthless. So, this forces having to go to Pivotal and deal with the clunkier interface to get more accurate maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Model evolution since my last posting on Saturday has generally trended toward a more progressive secondary coastal low. And when I say “progressive” I mean it keeps on tracking into New England and beyond vs a stall and capture situation. That of course would take the Dec ‘92 2+day storm scenario off the table. What we seem to be looking at with this is a primary wave of warm advection precip that progresses into the region on Thursday, that perhaps enhances as we get development on the coast. Since this keeps moving, we’re going to be on more of a time crunch to get the column right for all snow. Basically, this is the scenario mentioned last week with the far west cutting primary hitting the blocking and forcing secondary development. We will have CAD and the actual secondary low on the coast (which wasn’t being modeled much at all at that point), so think most of the subforum sees a mix event up front, transitioning to snow in the interior counties as the coastal low gets going. Further south LSV (LNS/THV) is going to be dependent on coastal track as the low lifts up (could transition to rain if it’s too close) while upper LSV places like Harrisburg eventually transition to a period of snow. CTP mentioned in their AFD about dynamic and evaporative cooling of the column as well, which could imply a situation where the initial precip shield ends up being a thump of snow after brief early mixing. To put all of this simply, it’s going to be difficult to resolve p-type issues for awhile yet… per usual. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GFS starting to show that thump potential.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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