GrandmasterB Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The NAM has been consistent in not wanting to give anything accumulating to the southern tier counties. It did look slightly colder overall and the coastal low a touch further east than 6z NAM. Didn’t do much in practical p-type results for us southern folks, but I still found the slight shift noteworthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Dynamic Large Storm out in the Midwest. Hopefully Precip rates will help when it gets here to keep us Frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: and after looking at the 6z NAM thermals, the 700's where a tad warmer for SE Pa, still a good bit of work for us down here, but soon enough, these subtle shifts will become noise, as the goalposts will stop narrowing and I'll likely be outside of them. For those inside...enjoy. and after the 12z NAM thermal profile review...a nice tick colder. IMO coastal is helping a bit. If you look at 700mb panels you can see it. 850's also a tad better. I'll take it as a good start for the day. edit: and after reviewing comments above, looks like I'm late to the dance.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 RGEM went with a colder column on 12Z. This may be a bit misleading as the panels flash between mix and snow so super close...and the SLP is WAY up in Havre De Grace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: RGEM went with a much colder column on 12Z What an unbelievably ugly cutoff in the SE parts of the LSV. Not often is there a 7" difference between Harrisburg and Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: What an unbelievably ugly cutoff in the SE parts of the LSV. Not often is there a 7" difference between Harrisburg and Lancaster. I added to my post suggesting that map may be a bit misleading after looking over the column for the entire event. Doubt it would play out like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 and best news of the day (to me) is that after looking at the tellies, NAO - slighly - AO - solidly - PNA - FINALLY GOING ++ MJO low amplitude 1/2/3 for next 2 weeks. Not really sure what/how that plays into the other signals, but IMO 3/4 aint bad. forthcoming maps should continue to show much nicer looks as we head for and beyond the holidays, so if your stocking doesnt get filled w/ snow with this one....I'd wager Sauss's $$ that many/all stocking just may have snow in them by EOY. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 FV3 is much more modest with any collapsing column snows for the LSV. Here is the best panel but it only lasts 2-3 hours as the SLP gets too far north and pushes the line back north again. 1-3" in Northern LSV. 4-6" Northern MSV. Most of the LSV sees little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12Z GFS at 48 has dewpoints noticeably colder than 6Z. Verbatim it’s low to mid 20’s with precip on the doorstep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS snow map on pivotal is....unique. But general sense here is that it continues to promote a wintery sceanrio. Does trainer get 5" or the hole of pain? Just north of DC gets plowable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS a wee bit better early on..... oh the drama.... secondary SLP at 60hrs about 75-100 SSE. 66hrs looks better too for us fence sitters, a little bit may mean something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS snow map on pivotal is....unique. But general sense here is that it continues to promote a wintery sceanrio. Does trainer get 5" or the hole of pain? Just north of DC gets plowable? Did you hack the model? Random bullseye over your hood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Perry County seems to look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Overall the 12Z GFS looks like another very small improvement, which continues the small improvements since yesterday. The fence sitters are getting closer to the “wintry” side of the fence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 regardless of the end result, I'll take the step the GFS took as a nice move for some LSV'rs. Remember folks, you gotta get the thermals figured out, before looking at perty colored snow maps....especially in situ's like this. Often times surface maps can be lagging IMO, so keep that block of salt on standby when viewing. In marginal events like this (cold wise), thats why I post 700/850 for your viewing pleasure/pain...cause it all starts up top. And for those that know this....sorry to bother, but for those that don't hope it helps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Perry County seems to look good I'll take "Shit that's never been said before" for $800Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Did you hack the model? Random bullseye over your hood. That is my mountain. Pen Mar Park scores. High Rock is white rock. Posting snow maps for the fun but 12Z has been a slight improvement for many here...I still would never bet money on the mid-levels holding in any kind of situation like this so keeping expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'll take "Shit that's never been said before" for $800 Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk that was hilarious. Good one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Currently 33 and Sunny for Nooners Model Perusing. Winter is here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Lehigh valley / poconos fit here??Hate Philly thread when it goes silent when they aren’t in the game . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Lehigh valley / poconos fit here?? Hate Philly threat when it goes silent when they aren’t in the game . Of course you are welcome. We are NOT like some other forums that get all wound up from "outsiders". Hell....we got some guy from friggin Arizona that posts here all the time @Voyager Enjoy your stay and fwiw were not always in the game either, but we are known to chat it up even when some of us are on the bench. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Lehigh valley / poconos fit here?? Hate Philly thread when it goes silent when they aren’t in the game . you're good here. However, All new people have to pay for the beer at the forum Christmas party. Welcome aboard 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: you're good here. However, All new people have to pay for the beer at the forum Christmas party. Welcome aboard Wait, you told me before there wasnt any beer! HOODWINKS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Of course you are welcome. We are NOT like some other forums that get all wound up from "outsiders". Hell....we got some guy from friggin Arizona that posts here all the time [mention=317]Voyager[/mention] Enjoy your stay and fwiw were not always in the game either, but we are known to chat it up even when some of us are on the bench.Damn Steve ended up in this room?? I know Steve real well! (Voyager). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Lehigh valley / poconos fit here?? Hate Philly thread when it goes silent when they aren’t in the game . Most people here are quite nice. In addition to paying for beer you also have to let us know how often you mow your grass and what you keep your house temp at in the winter. Those are a big deal here. :-). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Nooners 34 and sunny, brisk out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Wait, you told me before there wasnt any beer! HOODWINKSWell there was, but if you wanted any, somebody was going to have to piss it all out, because it was gone. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Well there was, but if you wanted any, somebody was going to have to piss it all out, because it was gone. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Buzz from home alone vibes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Y’all see the CMC pre Christmas? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Oh and to all new people joining us from the nether regions of "Screw Philadelphia." You're on the hook for the Christmas party drink fund. Before you write that off as not a big deal, I observe the Julian calendar. Our party is two days before Christmas. So January 5th. You fund that, too. Enjoy.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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