Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 The 0z GFS still for Thursday is advertising icy mix to snow for most of us and then the rain/snow line sets up north of the turnpike by Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 The 0z GFS gets Advisory level snow to most of us north of the turnpike in the LSV. Warning level snow for the mid & upper Susquehanna Valley this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Ty for the update all at work and shitty connection in the plant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Think the heavy rain and win Thursday night is a bigger deal in the LSV than freezing precip - looks downright tropical storm in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z GFS gets Advisory level snow to most of us north of the turnpike in the LSV. Warning level snow for the mid & upper Susquehanna Valley this run. That’s good Blizz. 4” here I’ll take 2-3” awesome and yes heavy rain after but I just want to see the white come down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 down to 20 forecast low was 24 so take that for what you will. but we all know that magic cloud cover will come in and just bump up the temps 8 degrees out of no where before sun rise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 14 this morning...Brr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 417 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-150000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.221215T0600Z-221216T0000Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 417 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will move in to the area from west to east Thursday morning. This is expected to last several hours before an eventual change to rain occurs from south to north by the late afternoon into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I know the p-types with this storm have been talked about for days, but seeing up to 40 mph winds in the watch text this morning kind of surprised me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I know the p-types with this storm have been talked about for days, but seeing up to 40 mph winds in the watch text this morning kind of surprised me. So yo missing this Pa. weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: So yo missing this Pa. weather? Nope. I'd be stressing out about work already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 39 minutes ago, Voyager said: Nope. I'd be stressing out about work already. Wow, you are up early. The Euro dropped its PV into PHO idea. It is still not a great look for snow here (next week) but you are no longer progged to get record temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 For this week, a quick run through the 6Z/0Z models and the GFS, UK and HRRR still have some snow in the LSV. GFS has sig snow in the Northern LSV actually. Rgem/CMC, Nam 3K and 12K, Euro, FV3 have backed the >1" snow line to the very top of the LSV (Pillowish) or totally out of the LSV. The Nam's backed way off for the MSV as well. @Cashtown_Coop, we are "out" on everything except the UK. The Rgem was close for you at 0Z but now is nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: For this week, a quick run through the 6Z/0Z models and the GFS, UK and HRRR still have some snow in the LSV. GFS has sig snow in the Northern LSV actually. Rgem/CMC, Nam 3K and 12K, Euro, FV3 have backed the >1" snow line to the very top of the LSV (Pillowish) or totally out of the LSV. The Nam's backed way off for the MSV as well. I think it was 27 said this morning about possible sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Wow, you are up early. The Euro dropped its PV into PHO idea. It is still not a great look for snow here (next week) but you are no longer progged to get record temps. Sometimes I'm up at 1am Phx time. All our first deliveries are 7am. I never really thought we'd see temps that cold, although it has happened a couple of times in the past. This morning I had to remote start the Jeep due to frost. So far the low for today is 32.5 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I think it was 27 said this morning about possible sleet fest. What did the floor guys say? But seriously, definitely a significant sleet accumulation possible especially northern area of the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 19 for the low in Marysville this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 19 for the low in Marysville this morning. 17 here. Big thing was a mod-hvy frost. The grass should finally be done growing now. It has lost its green appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just saw the latest NAM's. Basically no appreciable accumulation even in Tamaqua. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, Voyager said: Just saw the latest NAM's. Basically no appreciable accumulation even in Tamaqua. Accumulation of what?? Go get some sleepy..... I'd appreciate your likely 3-5 of snow/sleet/slop all day and every day compared to being lucky to get the ground white down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 @Voyager URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 417 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 PAZ028-051>053-058-150000- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0007.221215T0600Z-221216T1200Z/ Juniata-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- Including the cities of Mifflintown, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, and Pottsville 417 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Juniata, Montour, Northumberland, Columbia and Schuylkill Counties. * WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix will begin around sunrise and increase in intensity into Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 For those that are going to cash in, by the looks of the pattern, y'all stand a decent chance at holding it till christmas. I just need to figure out how to hold onto my 1" of slop that I'm anticipating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: For this week, a quick run through the 6Z/0Z models and the GFS, UK and HRRR still have some snow in the LSV. GFS has sig snow in the Northern LSV actually. Rgem/CMC, Nam 3K and 12K, Euro, FV3 have backed the >1" snow line to the very top of the LSV (Pillowish) or totally out of the LSV. The Nam's backed way off for the MSV as well. @Cashtown_Coop, we are "out" on everything except the UK. The Rgem was close for you at 0Z but now is nothing. My expectations are low. .2” would give me 1” season total so that’s my bar. Sad lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My expectations are low. .2” would give me 1” season total so that’s my bar. Sad lol If you count sleet like those TT maps, you should exceed that. I do not personally count sleet, but I know the NWS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Low was only 23 here. Woke up at 5am to a lot of high level cloudiness. Sky is mostly a milky white here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My expectations are low. .2” would give me 1” season total so that’s my bar. Sad lol I'll take your .2 to get on the damn board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 50 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Accumulation of what?? Go get some sleepy..... I'd appreciate your likely 3-5 of snow/sleet/slop all day and every day compared to being lucky to get the ground white down here. This is the one I looked at. Kuchera is even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 The new HRRR continues to be one of the snowier models especially elevation. This does not include sleet and is Kuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The new HRRR continues to be one of the snowier models for especially elevation. This does not include sleet. That would be quite the upset pulled off by the HRRR. I think in most situations like this, the snowfall amounts tend to be smoothed out over longer distances...for instance, if MDT recorded 1", UNV might record 3.5", IPT 4", etc. Hard to imagine Harrisburg getting warning level snow while I get nothing, but that's why we love the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 The new HRRR continues to be one of the snowier models especially elevation. This does not include sleet and is Kuch. SOLD!Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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