anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Oh and to all new people joining us from the nether regions of "Screw Philadelphia." You're on the hook for the Christmas party drink fund. Before you write that off as not a big deal, I observe the Julian calendar. Our party is two days before Christmas. So January 5th. You fund that, too. Enjoy.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using TapatalkI’ll bring the Busch light and some rum!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Y’all see the CMC pre Christmas? . That entire track is a classic LSV/Leigh Valley Neisis level event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Y’all see the CMC pre Christmas? . I'll take that for 1,000! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 That would be a Festivus MiracleSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 That would be the odd event where a low that deep sitting over Wilmington DE is producing snow right to the center of low pressure. Seems...suspicious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That would be the odd event where a low that deep sitting over Wilmington DE is producing snow right to the center of low pressure. Seems...suspicious. In defense of the model, which we know will very likely not end up like this, the low is retrograding/phasing/tucking and also reforming to the North East at that point. If you go back a few panels you will see it sweeps up from off the coast of NC and is pulled by a low to its Northwest...classic. Those SE PA areas were never flooded with warm air on its "first pass" well to the east. But great ob and this is a interesting model breakdown of how it did that. The 850's from the panel posted are a thing of beauty as to a low pulling down cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: In defense of the model, which we know will very likely not end up like this, the low is retrograding/phasing/tucking and also reforming to the North East at that point. If you go back a few panels you will see it sweeps up from off the coast of NC and is pulled by a low to its Northwest...classic. Those SE PA areas were never flooded with warm air on its "first pass" well to the east. But great ob and this is a interesting model breakdown of how it did that. The 850's from the panel posted are a thing of beauty as to a low pulling down cold air. CMC has to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: CMC has to be right. Did the Euro trade you to Canada? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: In defense of the model, which we know will very likely not end up like this, the low is retrograding/phasing/tucking and also reforming to the North East at that point. If you go back a few panels you will see it sweeps up from off the coast of NC and is pulled by a low to its Northwest...classic. Those SE PA areas were never flooded with warm air on its "first pass" well to the east. But great ob and this is a interesting model breakdown of how it did that. The 850's from the panel posted are a thing of beauty as to a low pulling down cold air. Yep, the profiles match the precip type. Thanks for sharing that - I was only looking at the precip map which looked suspicious off of what "normally" happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Sunny and 37 approaching 1pm. Hoping that tomorrow is not a day where it's sunny all day and then clouds over right at sunset - I'd love to see at least a couple of hours of clear skies to radiate tomorrow evening before clouds cap our temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: I’ll bring the Busch light and some rum! . Miller Hi Life….the champagne of beers is a real crowd pleaser here (well ok….for 2 of us anyways). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: Y’all see the CMC pre Christmas? . I was waiting for someone to mention this haha. Fantasy land often serves up fantasies, but either way it certainly seems like some robust tracking will be in our future. Let's see what the Euro delivers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Renewed Pivot for Winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I was waiting for someone to mention this haha. Fantasy land often serves up fantasies, but either way it certainly seems like some robust tracking will be in our future. Let's see what the Euro delivers. I think something as optimal as that defintely needs a mention...if not only to see graphical output of how we can win. So many solutions show us the myriad of ways we can lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sunny and 37 approaching 1pm. Hoping that tomorrow is not a day where it's sunny all day and then clouds over right at sunset - I'd love to see at least a couple of hours of clear skies to radiate tomorrow evening before clouds cap our temps. It just hit 41 here. No wind for once on my side of the mountain so pretty decent out. Still winter like temps but not too cold to be out. MDT currently stands almost on the dot normal for the month. .1 over. Winter Storm Watch issued for the Western middle counties of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 CTP has us in the 2-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It just hit 41 here. No wind for once on my side of the mountain so pretty decent out. Still winter like temps but not too cold to be out. MDT current stands almost on the dot normal for the month. .1 over. Winter Storm Watch issued for the Western middle counties of the state. That snow and sleet is odd they have me in the 2-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: That snow and sleet is odd they have me in the 2-4" range. I picked that up from their twitter where they posted it at 10:00ish. https://twitter.com/NWSStateCollege/status/1602688004044251137/photo/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: That snow and sleet is odd they have me in the 2-4" range. No sorry 1-2" range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I picked that up from their page where they posted it at 10:00ish. https://twitter.com/NWSStateCollege/status/1602688004044251137/photo/1 Yeah I was wrong I must have been on a northern county when looking at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Euro is pretty Meh for the LSV as to later this week. Northern MSV gets slammed. 850 Low gets into SE PA. The Euro wants nothing to do with 12/23 either...cutter. 10 days out so just model talk. Euro has all kinds of energy traversing the middle of the country on the 23rd. Convoluted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Euro is pretty Meh for the LSV as to later this week. Northern MSV gets slammed. 850 Low gets into SE PA. Go with a blend if the GFS and Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Euro is pretty Meh for the LSV as to later this week. Northern MSV gets slammed. 850 Low gets into SE PA. The Euro wants nothing to do with 12/23 either...cutter. 10 days out so just model talk. Euro has all kinds of energy traversing the middle of the country on the 23rd. Convoluted. It's a cutter on 'roids. If the Euro depiction happens, I know someone whose AC will be humming on 12/24... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's a cutter on 'roids. If the Euro depiction happens, I know someone whose AC will be humming on 12/24... Santa would need his rain coat and shorts. I saw an animation on the MA board showing it having a wave sitting in the Northwest US for several panels then push a trough down into the SW and ruin @Voyager's Christmas. EPS/ensemble runs will have a lot of weenies hitting refresh very soon...hoping to counter the op. @Itstrainingtime, what about your grass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Santa would need his rain coat and shorts. I saw an animation on the MA board showing it having a wave sitting in the Northwest US for several panels then push a trough down into the SW and ruin @Voyager's Christmas. I saw the same thing - just a wee bit different than the GFS for the same time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I was waiting for someone to mention this haha. Fantasy land often serves up fantasies, but either way it certainly seems like some robust tracking will be in our future. Let's see what the Euro delivers. Euro might be on coke, but it certainly didn't deliver any white powder. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro might be on coke, but it certainly didn't deliver any white powder. If it the starlight coke, I want to buy some. If dreamworld, throw it away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 43 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Santa would need his rain coat and shorts. I saw an animation on the MA board showing it having a wave sitting in the Northwest US for several panels then push a trough down into the SW and ruin @Voyager's Christmas. EPS/ensemble runs will have a lot of weenies hitting refresh very soon...hoping to counter the op. @Itstrainingtime, what about your grass? I told my mom's neighbor that there was a better chance of a white Christmas in Phoenix than my wife ever moving out here. I swear if it actually happens... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 If it the starlight coke, I want to buy some. If dreamworld, throw it away! So you're the person keeping Cola Cola cranking out that nuclear garbage?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: So you're the person keeping Cola Cola cranking out that nuclear garbage? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Dreamworld is Garbage, IMO. Starlight at least tasted decent. Last I looked on ebay, Starlight is selling for $30-$40 a case of 12 small cans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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