mahantango#1 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 21 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 The 6z GFS still has icy mix to snow then rain for areas south & east of I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Here is the 6z GFS snow map through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 6z GFS snow map through Friday. I wonder if these models runs are gonna trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I need that pink to slide left about 25 miles.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I need that pink to slide left about 25 miles. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Hmmmmm. What now. LOL. Euphemism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Hmmmmm. What now. LOL. Euphemism? Yeah. I got shorted by god and only "reach" 50 miles. Two-way street. Gotta meet me in the middle, all that shit. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Decent agreement on the 6z Euro and GFS. 6z Euro takes a similar path up until the low reaches the DelMarVa region. Same theme on precip with icy mix to start then snow for most for awhile and then the rain/snow line sets up around I-81 until the storm passes our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 6z Euro snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 half that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 A plowable snow is considered 2 or more inches? I would have thought more than that. Lets see what the models show us today. Thanks Blizz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, pawatch said: A plowable snow is considered 2 or more inches? I would have thought more than that. Lets see what the models show us today. Thanks Blizz We have had this discussion in years past. I forget the final verdict but it was at least 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Down this way we'll be riding that zero-degree line from the surface up through 700mb for much of the duration. I still don't think anything approaching plowable for Lancaster County and would be thrilled to see an inch, which is a shame because the system shouldn't lack for moisture. The WPC graphics pretty much tell the story...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Down this way we'll be riding that zero-degree line from the surface up through 700mb for much of the duration. I still don't think anything approaching plowable for Lancaster County and would be thrilled to see an inch, which is a shame because the system shouldn't lack for moisture. The WPC graphics pretty much tell the story...... I concur that this snow map is a realistic depiction of where the significant snows could happen based on AM modeling. Icing is so hard to predict so not going to venture there yet but I suspect in my hood, this is mostly a sleet to rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 24 and sunny. I want to get excited not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Down this way we'll be riding that zero-degree line from the surface up through 700mb for much of the duration. I still don't think anything approaching plowable for Lancaster County and would be thrilled to see an inch, which is a shame because the system shouldn't lack for moisture. The WPC graphics pretty much tell the story...... My rain gauge will be humming. Thanks for posting. Completely based off memory of past events with similar setups over the years, I've sort of felt that the Ukie map you posted yesterday at noon was the most likely depiction of what might happen. Obviously there are nuances with every individual storm, but I'd be surprised if anyone south and east of State College over to Williamsport sees more than a few inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 22 was my low earlier this morning. Invigorating weather to start the day - still leaving the house in a short sleeve polo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 22 was my low earlier this morning. Invigorating weather to start the day - still leaving the house in a short sleeve polo. You almost have to if you work anywhere, they keep the temp in the 70's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have had this discussion in years past. I forget the final verdict but it was at least 4". That’s what my thoughts were. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have had this discussion in years past. I forget the final verdict but it was at least 4". 1 minute ago, pawatch said: That’s what my thoughts were. Elliott Abrams used to define a plowable snow as 4"+, and there have been some others who've said the same. That's been my the number that comes to my mind when I hear that term thrown out, but it seems today more and more often I'll see plows hitting the pavement once the snow reaches 2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: I wonder if these models runs are gonna trend colder. didnt look too deep but at a quick glance, I'd say ever so slightly cooler. You look to be in for a decent event, I need every little skinch of "cooler" that I can get down here. Reading Afd above give me hope they the quicker transfer to the coastal may save the day for the eastern folks, and while the coastal transfer is a little too far N for me to get real excited down here, I'll take my normal dryslot and hope for the quicker transfer and cross my fingers for some action from part 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You almost have to if you work anywhere, they keep the temp in the 70's. That is very true... ...but I was also referring to when I was outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Down this way we'll be riding that zero-degree line from the surface up through 700mb for much of the duration. I still don't think anything approaching plowable for Lancaster County and would be thrilled to see an inch, which is a shame because the system shouldn't lack for moisture. The WPC graphics pretty much tell the story...... Yeah its a nail biter for us, but often is in situ's like this. You and I will be living vicariously through our central/northern crew, but like you suggested, if we can eek out even 1-3 slop kinda deal, I'm good w/ that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah its a nail biter for us, but often is in situ's like this. You and I will be living vicariously through our central/northern crew, but like you suggested, if we can eek out even 1-3 slop kinda deal, I'm good w/ that. I am with you on this either way getting frozen precip for a period time is festive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: I am with you on this either way getting frozen precip for a period time is festive. I'm still searching to see my first snow of the year flying. That's my benchmark - some white globes falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 and after looking at the 6z NAM thermals, the 700's where a tad warmer for SE Pa, still a good bit of work for us down here, but soon enough, these subtle shifts will become noise, as the goalposts will stop narrowing and I'll likely be outside of them. For those inside...enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm still searching to see my first snow of the year flying. That's my benchmark - some white globes falling from the sky. Yuu did not post this, I did....but MU says you may not get your first snow this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12K Nam lots of rain for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12z 3K Nam has about 6-7 hours where the column supports some type of frozen (including the surface) for the LSV. Temps between 700 and 800 are in the mid 30's (or even a tad higher) for most of the event so it shows little to no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The NAM has been consistent in not wanting to give anything accumulating to the southern tier counties. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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