Blizzard of 93 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Hopefully all of our dreams of record setting snow this Winter come true! Met. Winter is finally here! The upcoming pattern looks to be loaded with Winter storm potential….Let’s go! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just finished and posted this in the old thread before I saw the winter one was made, haha. Speaking specifically about our region (C-PA), a suppressed storm track would be a bigger concern to me than a cutting one with the establishment of a -NAO regime of the caliber thats been advertised solidly on the guidance (-3 to -4). Now truth be told, this is a great looking winter pattern upcoming for the eastern US once it does get truly established… which seems to be still in the realm of just beyond D7-10. So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise. What also comes with a blocky pattern? Model mayhem trying to handle the individual features so I’d be looking for a lot of that as well 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 57 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully all of our dreams of record setting snow this Winter come true! Met. Winter is finally here! The upcoming pattern looks to be loaded with Winter storm potential….Let’s go! Thanks Blizz let’s do it for sure!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 May all your backs be sore from shoveling and your snowblowers empty of gas. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Mind if I lurk here the next few weeks? I am a resident of the southeast board but will be in Altoona from the 11th-21st so this weather gal wants to keep my wife informedSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 42 mph wind gust over night, steady 15mph wind. Ended up with 0.26” of rain yesterday, Far cry from the 1-2” They was calling for. Snow flurries today...So good start Blizz! Sandstorm your welcome! Thanks Mag. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Hopefully this winter season is short lived...bring on summer! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said: Mind if I lurk here the next few weeks? I am a resident of the southeast board but will be in Altoona from the 11th-21st so this weather gal wants to keep my wife informed Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Welcome! You might need to speak up for Altoona from time to time as many members are from the Harrisburg/Lower Susquehanna Valley area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 27 low for the first day of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, pawatch said: 42 mph wind gust over night, steady 15mph wind. Ended up with 0.26” of rain yesterday, Far cry from the 1-2” They was calling for. Snow flurries today...So good start Blizz! Sandstorm your welcome! Thanks Mag. I checked my station and it showed 12.5 for a peak gust, but from what I've heard, it must have been higher because tree crews are out working on some downed branches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 The overnight models looked to be keying on a potential Winter Storm around the 10th. Lots of time & many days to go, but the potential should be there with cold air available and the blocking in Greenland established. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 The 6z GFS has this storm potential for the 13th with a low off of the South Carolina coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Good luck w/ the thread Blizz. It feels like winter today so nice start. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The overnight models looked to be keying on a potential Winter Storm around the 10th. Lots of time & many days to go, but the potential should be there with cold air available and the blocking in Greenland established. Yes, keep us updated, as I have to put the snowplow on my four wheeler to plow our lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 .24" of rain for me yesterday -- 2.5" total for the month on only 8 days of measurable precip. Certainly feeling like winter out there as we roll into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: .24" of rain for me yesterday -- 2.5" total for the month on only 8 days of measurable precip. Certainly feeling like winter out there as we roll into December. Sorry...I finished with .41" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sorry...I finished with .41" You would 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Windier overnight and this morning than nearly all of yesterday/last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Nooner. 37 sunny with some wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Might start as snow but it is a cutter today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Might start as snow but it is a cutter today: only 41 more iterations to worry about who's getting what. Based on a sneak peak at tellies this morning....I'm willing to throw down some non house moolah that a better look will be had in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: only 41 more iterations to worry about who's getting what. Based on a sneak peak at tellies this morning....I'm willing to throw down some non house moolah that a better look will be had in the coming days. Yeah over 200 hours out. I definitely think a better look or hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Yeah over 200 hours out. I definitely think a better look or hope so. Like him or not, one of the greats of LR forecasting (yes Bastardi) often reminded us that a model run "must fit the pattern". That phrase has stuck w/ me for decades and makes a ton of sense. That said....this run doesnt really fit. NAO/AO solidly neg, w/ PNA still slightly neg (around that timestamp), would not show such ridging out west, and would be notably more supressed in the east, and likely wouldnt show a cutter. Not parsing over details yet, cause at 252, the details are fuzzy at best, but thats a 10,000 ft view from my noggin. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 just a little divergence and why Op runs post 240 should be taken w/ a large grain of salt IMO. GEPS verbatim "fits the pattern" if tellies are close to correct. And remember, you gotta get the the 500mb pattern right before worrying about lower levels. Literally a top down approach (for me anyway). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: Might start as snow but it is a cutter today: The CMC is a bit faster with the Southern Slider 7-8 days from now...gets in before as much suppression takes place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The CMC is a bit faster with the Southern Slider 7-8 days from now...gets in before as much suppression takes place. Yep it does looks like a quick inch or 2 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Lanco finished November 3.75 AN for the month. (MU) Currently, it's sunny and 41 with a bit of a breeze here at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Lanco finished November 3.75 AN for the month. (MU) Currently, it's sunny and 41 with a bit of a breeze here at work. Currently 37 here and quite breezy as well. Chilly. Missed the Noon roll call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Lanco finished November 3.75 AN for the month. (MU) Currently, it's sunny and 41 with a bit of a breeze here at work. MU always finishes with a significantly higher departure than MDT because they compare against the entire period of record (which I like), whereas NWS just uses the most recent 30-year period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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