Winter Banter Thread

[North and West]

FDU beats Purdue . Never thought it would actually happen right to the end. Wow. 

I went there! They should make a movie about a basketball game in which a small school beats a big school from Indiana.


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[coastalplainsnowman]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There were back-to-back storms on March 16-17 and March 18-19. It was an epic finish to the winter.

Wow, was the 16th-17th a snow event for LI?  If so, the record for snowcover depth following that storm must be the all time March record for LI near ISP, if they were keeping records back then, right?

[Wannabehippie]

19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

He was once a very good forecaster. Unfortunately, he failed to adapt his framework and approach to address the forecasting realities of today's warmer world. The reduced pool of cold air coverage, higher incidence of pattern-influencing marine heatwaves, greater atmospheric moisture content, the rise of quasi-resonant amplification, etc. have fundamentally altered the forecasting context.

What worked well in the 1990s or even very early 2000s doesn't work so well today. Analogs constructed from the earlier climate regime have lost relevance.

Objectivity is a prerequisite for recognizing the shift that has taken place and its implications. Flexibility is necessary to revise one's forecasting framework and approach. Denial or refusal to accept the changes that have occurred and rigidity in forecasting frameworks and approaches assure one's inability to adapt when the change takes place, as it has.

In the end, forecasting greatness is determined over time and is best distinguished in the capacity of a forecaster to successfully adapt to change. A forecaster who makes the successful transition from one forecasting context to another one while continuing to deliver sound forecasts is a great forecaster.

JB is also all about the page clicks these days, as it generates revenue. No one wants to hear about boring, warm, dry weather. They want to hear about cold, snow. Hot, stormy, etc. So that is what he looks for in the models, looking for something in them so he can come up with a cold, snowy forecast.

 

[donsutherland1]

On 3/18/2023 at 8:16 AM, coastalplainsnowman said:

Wow, was the 16th-17th a snow event for LI?  If so, the record for snowcover depth following that storm must be the all time March record for LI near ISP, if they were keeping records back then, right?

Unfortunately, ISP’s period of record doesn’t go back to 1956. Data from Patchogue (2 N) is available:

March 16-17: 4.2"

March 18-19: 12.4"

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, ISP’s period of record doesn’t go back to 1956.

 

31 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

JB is also all about the page clicks these days, as it generates revenue. No one wants to hear about boring, warm, dry weather. They want to hear about cold, snow. Hot, stormy, etc. So that is what he looks for in the models, looking for something in them so he can come up with a cold, snowy forecast.

 

Pursuing clicks at the expense of one's credibility is not a good trade-off. The costs far exceed the short-term benefits once one's credibility is lost. Loss of credibility is damaging to one's professional reputation.

[JTA66]

I’ve often wondered if JB puts out one forecast of cold & snow for the weenies and a more realistic forecast for WxBell’s paying clientele.

If they are the same forecast, I can’t believe WxBell has many customers at this point. You could do better and save money just going by NOAA 30-day outlooks.

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

Pursuing clicks at the expense of one's credibility is not a good trade-off. The costs far exceed the short-term benefits once one's credibility is lost. Loss of credibility is damaging to one's professional reputation.

Page clicks are what drives ad revenue. That is what JB care about these days. The ad revenue.

 

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Page clicks are what drives ad revenue. That is what JB care about these days. The ad revenue.

 

No I sadly think he believes everything he spews 

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Page clicks are what drives ad revenue. That is what JB care about these days. The ad revenue.

 

The question is whether the ad revenue begins to dry up when his repeated forecasting debacles become evident. Already, some meteorologists, including former Accuweather colleagues, are starting to call out his failures on Social Media.

[etudiant]

3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

JB is also all about the page clicks these days, as it generates revenue. No one wants to hear about boring, warm, dry weather. They want to hear about cold, snow. Hot, stormy, etc. So that is what he looks for in the models, looking for something in them so he can come up with a cold, snowy forecast.

 

How does that work given that he is on a pay for access site?

 

[jm1220]

50 minutes ago, etudiant said:

How does that work given that he is on a pay for access site?

 

He still posts outlooks on Twitter. 

[Wannabehippie]

5 hours ago, etudiant said:

How does that work given that he is on a pay for access site?

 

He still has stuff that is free to view out there.

[coastalplainsnowman]

May I make a meta-banter comment/question?  One thing that always amazes me on this board is that I often see an account post, don't recognize the handle, and then see that it's made thousands (sometimes tens of thousands) of posts, and has been on the board for years, yet, unless I'm totally losing my marbles,  I'm seeing the handle for the first time.  I can't figure out how that's possible.  Is it just me?

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

May I make a meta-banter comment/question?  One thing that always amazes me on this board is that I often see an account post, don't recognize the handle, and then see that it's made thousands (sometimes tens of thousands) of posts, and has been on the board for years, yet, unless I'm totally losing my marbles,  I'm seeing the handle for the first time.  I can't figure out how that's possible.  Is it just me?

Any examples? People change their handles too so that's a possibility 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/18/2023 at 8:44 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, ISP’s period of record doesn’t go back to 1956. Data from Patchogue (2 N) is available:

March 16-17: 3.0"

March 18-19: 15.0"

I bet March 1967 had a larger snowcover, that was a historic winter with historic cold in March.

 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I bet March 1967 had a larger snowcover, that was a historic winter with historic cold in March.

 

First, corrections for 1956, as I took the numbers from the wrong column:

March 16-17: 4.2"

March 18-19: 12.4"

In terms of snowcover, March 1967 easily had more than 1956 at Patchogue (2 N):

1956:

Peak snowcover: 10"; Average monthly snowcover: 0.6"; Biggest snowfall: 12.4", March 18-19

1967:

Peak snowcover: 15"; Average monthly snowcover: 2.5"; Biggest snowfall: 16.1", March 22-23

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

First, corrections for 1956, as I took the numbers from the wrong column:

March 16-17: 4.2"

March 18-19: 12.4"

In terms of snowcover, March 1967 easily had more than 1956 at Patchogue (2 N):

1956:

Peak snowcover: 10"; Average monthly snowcover: 0.6"; Biggest snowfall: 12.4", March 18-19

1967:

Peak snowcover: 15"; Average monthly snowcover: 2.5"; Biggest snowfall: 16.1", March 22-23

 

Thanks, Don!  Is that March 1967 snowstorm considered the greatest spring snowstorm for our area?  I think it eeks out that April snowstorm from the early 1900s that dropped 19" in PHL but only about 11" here.

[donsutherland1]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Don!  Is that March 1967 snowstorm considered the greatest spring snowstorm for our area?  I think it eeks out that April snowstorm from the early 1900s that dropped 19" in PHL but only about 11" here.

Southampton had 16.0" in the April 3-4, 1915 snowstorm.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Southampton had 16.0" in the April 3-4, 1915 snowstorm.

Don,

 You might find it interesting that NC cities such as Raleigh, Greensboro, and Fayetteville had 5-10" of snow from this early April of 1915 snowstorm! These are by far the heaviest April snows there on record. A trace even fell at least as far south as Columbia, SC. Many all-time record April low highs (still to this day) were set deep into the SE (including Jacksonville) along with cold rains. Savannah had a high as low as 46 and lows in the upper 30s with rain.

Edit:  Per meteorologist Eric Webb, this was at the tail end of a moderate El Niño.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Don,

 You might find it interesting that NC cities such as Raleigh, Greensboro, and Fayetteville had 5-10" of snow from this. These are by far the heaviest April snows there on record. A trace even fell at least as far south as Columbia, SC. Many all-time record April low highs (still to this day) were set deep into the SE (including Jacksonville) along with cold rains. Savannah had a high as low as 46 and lows in the upper 30s with rain.

Yes. Raleigh picked up 10". A photo from North Carolina's State Archives:

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. Raleigh picked up 10". A photo from North Carolina's State Archives:

amazing, 19 inches in Philly?  someone in our area must have gotten 20 inches out of this

 

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

amazing, 19 inches in Philly?  someone in our area must have gotten 20 inches out of this

 

The storm's heaviest snow extended from eastern PA across central NJ. There were a lot of 16" and 17" amounts in that area with Philadelphia's 19.4" being perhaps the highest figure.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The storm's heaviest snow extended from eastern PA across central NJ. There were a lot of 16" and 17" amounts in that area with Philadelphia's 19.4" being perhaps the highest figure.

ironic that we were fringed in mid April lol

must have been a very long duration very cold storm, 10:1 or less?

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Thank God it is officially, painfully, finally and thankfully in the books / over and done with !!!! Next FALL -> I will take a Halloween snowsfall or an early November snowstorm and pray that it does not mean a less snowy winter later. Buh Bye winter of 2023 don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out and Let the countdown to next fall and more importantly winter begin !!! 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thank God it is officially, painfully, finally and thankfully in the books / over and done with !!!! Next FALL -> I will take a Halloween snowsfall or an early November snowstorm and pray that it does not mean a less snowy winter later. Buh Bye winter of 2023 don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out and Let the countdown to next fall and more importantly winter begin !!! 

Easiest winter grade EVER

F-----------------------------------------------------------------------

that F could stand for a few other things too lol

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah, I don’t have any clever jokes or anything, this winter just absolutely sucked. Miserable. Downright depressing. 

It’s tough for me because winter is my season, where I’m engaged and on pins and needles with each model run. I don’t feel that for any other season. 

I’ve tracked tornadoes and tornado outbreaks my whole life, and I’ll track hurricanes of course. But northeast winters are the only season I have any real investment in. I’m just not a warm weather guy. 

Back to my volcano watching. At least the Aleutians might be waking up. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I don’t have any clever jokes or anything, this winter just absolutely sucked. Miserable. Downright depressing. 

It’s tough for me because winter is my season, where I’m engaged and on pins and needles with each model run. I don’t feel that for any other season. 

I’ve tracked tornadoes and tornado outbreaks my whole life, and I’ll track hurricanes of course. But northeast winters are the only season I have any real investment in. I’m just not a warm weather guy. 

Back to my volcano watching. At least the Aleutians might be waking up. 

Just wait til you start tracking a historic heatwave!  You'll love it!  July 1993 got me hooked!

 

[Volcanic Winter]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just wait til you start tracking a historic heatwave!  You'll love it!  July 1993 got me hooked!

 

You have no idea how much I pray for a VEI 7 to knock us back a few decades of warming. It's one of the only things that can (temporarily of course, but I'll take it).

The thought of going through something like that recent PNW heatwave gives me pre-emptive heatstroke.

Lol nah man you do you, I respect it. I just suspect the way things are headed you'll have plenty of heatwaves to track. I'd like the opportunity to track at least one serious cold wave that isn't a short, sharp cold shot. Yes the Boston blast this year was impressive but it was here and gone within like 36 hours. Give me one serious several week long cold wave, of real, legitimate 18th-19th century cold focused into the northeast. And I'll feel a lot better. I'd even happily let you get your giga heatwave the following summer .

You know what I mean, though? I just feel like the scales are so imbalanced toward warm seasons that aside from me preferring the cold it’s just so boring anymore to hear about heat and warmth. Not even boring, borderline upsetting. It seems to be the main thing we still do well around here, apart from an isolated major snowstorm. January last year was technically a cold month, but comparatively? Weak sauce. Like I said, give me some proper 18th century ‘Washington crossing the frozen Delaware’ level cold that doesn’t get booted out the next day by the seat of its pants, and I’ll be satisfied for a while. 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

You have no idea how much I pray for a VEI 7 to knock us back a few decades of warming. It's one of the only things that can (temporarily of course, but I'll take it).

The thought of going through something like that recent PNW heatwave gives me pre-emptive heatstroke.

Lol nah man you do you, I respect it. I just suspect the way things are headed you'll have plenty of heatwaves to track. I'd like the opportunity to track at least one serious cold wave that isn't a short, sharp cold shot. Yes the Boston blast this year was impressive but it was here and gone within like 36 hours. Give me one serious several week long cold wave, of real, legitimate 18th-19th century cold focused into the northeast. And I'll feel a lot better. I'd even happily let you get your giga heatwave the following summer .

You know what I mean, though? I just feel like the scales are so imbalanced toward warm seasons that aside from me preferring the cold it’s just so boring anymore to hear about heat and warmth. Not even boring, borderline upsetting. It seems to be the main thing we still do well around here, apart from an isolated major snowstorm. January last year was technically a cold month, but comparatively? Weak sauce. Like I said, give me some proper 18th century ‘Washington crossing the frozen Delaware’ level cold that doesn’t get booted out the next day by the seat of its pants, and I’ll be satisfied for a while. 

well thats why 1993-94 and 2009-11 were ideal.....think about it, we had 102 degrees in July 1993 and then -2 in January 1994!  In 2009-11 we had 20 inch snowstorms and then 104 degree heat and then back to 20 inch snowstorms!

 

[donsutherland1]

Continuing the discussion arising from high-visibility extreme forecasts continually pushed on Social Media that regularly fail, I ran through numerous tweets from calls about weather, climate, and markets. I also relied on literature relevant to forecasting and cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, anchoring, escalation of commitment, etc. 

Based on this assessment, I believe I have reasonably captured the elements of bad forecasting frameworks (I limited domain/contextual knowledge here to weather/climate given that this is a weather board) and those that define good forecasting.

Good forecasting should not be confused with perfect forecasting. Good forecasting is defined by forecasts that consistently, but not always, prove realistic or reasonable against the outcomes of those forecasts. Error cannot be eliminated. However, in most cases, enormous errors are infrequent.