LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Nibor said: Dammit! Just missed it on my camping trip. Saw reports from the UK it was seen as far south as London! Pink and green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Periodic update on the extreme forecast for NYC for 3/1-4/15: 5° below normal; 20" snow. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58486-winter-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=6823796 Based on the latest guidance, the first 10 days of March will average around 1° below normal. For the overall 3/1-5/15 period to average 5° below normal, the remainder of the period would need to average 6.1° below normal. The 1991-2020 normal temperature for 3/11-4/15 is 46.9°. That means the period would need to have a mean temperature of 40.8° or below for the extreme forecast to verify. The last time that happened was in 1956. Future updates will be based on actual data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Periodic update on the extreme forecast for NYC for 3/1-4/15: 5° below normal; 20" snow. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58486-winter-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=6823796 Based on the latest guidance, the first 10 days of March will average around 1° below normal. For the overall 3/1-5/15 period to average 5° below normal, the remainder of the period would need to average 6.1° below normal. The 1991-2020 normal temperature for 3/11-4/15 is 46.9°. That means the period would need to have a mean temperature of 40.8° or below for the extreme forecast to verify. The last time that happened was in 1956. Future updates will be based on actual data. 40.8 doesn't sound that cold though Don. I figured it would have to average in the 30s. I'm surprised March 2018 wasn't that cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 So now that we are safe in NYC from setting an all time lowest snowfall record, how much more snow will we get this year? What are people's thoughts on this? We are going to start to run out of chances IMHO to get any significant snow. Of course we can always get an April surprise, but those are usually not the norm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: 40.8 doesn't sound that cold though Don. I figured it would have to average in the 30s. I'm surprised March 2018 wasn't that cold? That includes through April 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said: So now that we are safe in NYC from setting an all time lowest snowfall record, how much more snow will we get this year? What are people's thoughts on this? We are going to start to run out of chances IMHO to get any significant snow. Of course we can always get an April surprise, but those are usually not the norm. Typhoon Tip commented on the longer range Euro ensemble 500 mb pattern and used the number '1888' in his post. He qualified that rather severely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: So now that we are safe in NYC from setting an all time lowest snowfall record, how much more snow will we get this year? What are people's thoughts on this? We are going to start to run out of chances IMHO to get any significant snow. Of course we can always get an April surprise, but those are usually not the norm. we aren't really safe from it-- I expect we wont get any accumulation from Friday's event and we'll then have to depend on March 10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Posting a reminder for NYC folk who enter forecast contest (general weather forum) that March deadline looms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Typhoon Tip commented on the longer range Euro ensemble 500 mb pattern and used the number '1888' in his post. He qualified that rather severely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Given the extreme forecast made concerning New York City's March 1-April 15 snowfall, a look at what will likely be needed to get there is in order. Approximately 77% of New York City's March 1-April 15 snowfall occurs during March 1-21. All cases with 20" or more such snowfall had 10" or more during March 1-21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 20 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: So now that we are safe in NYC from setting an all time lowest snowfall record, how much more snow will we get this year? What are people's thoughts on this? We are going to start to run out of chances IMHO to get any significant snow. Of course we can always get an April surprise, but those are usually not the norm. They’re not safe. NYC stands at 2.2 inches officially, even though areas of the Bronx received over 5 inches from yesterdays storm. The record low is 2.8. Still achievable, if one would call that an achievement. Especially the way the doofus at Central Park often under measure or don’t measure small events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: They’re not safe. NYC stands at 2.2 inches officially, even though areas of the Bronx received over 5 inches from yesterdays storm. The record low is 2.8. Still achievable, if one would call that an achievement. Especially the way the doofus at Central Park often under measure or don’t measure small events. as you know I'm going with the lowest number for low records and the highest number for high records. As long as JFK remains below the record it's going to be historic, at 1.7" currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: as you know I'm going with the lowest number for low records and the highest number for high records. As long as JFK remains below the record it's going to be historic, at 1.7" currently. Do you do the same for the high records? I believe LaGuardia recorded 81 or so inches in 1995/96, I’m sure Don or Chris could give us the exact figure, yet the 75.6 at Central Park the same season is considered the all time record. You can’t have one without the other. No offense intended, because there isn’t any, but of course no one cares what number you’re going with LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Do you do the same for the high records? I believe LaGuardia recorded 81 or so inches in 1995/96, I’m sure Don or Chris could give us the exact figure, yet the 75.6 at Central Park the same season is considered the all time record. You can’t have one without the other. No offense intended, because there isn’t any, but of course no one cares what number you’re going with LOL. Yes 107 from LGA in 1966 for the record high! ugh January 1996 was severely undermeasured so that 81" figure from LGA is probably much more accurate, note the differences between LGA (27") vs Central Park (21"). This isn't new for Central Park, they also undermeasured PD2 2003 (26" at JFK vs 20" at Central Park), February 1983 (20"+ at both JFK and LGA, 18" at Central Park), February 1969 (20"+ at both LGA and JFK, 15" at Central Park), February 1961 (25" at JFK and 24" at LGA, while only 16" at Central Park.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes 107 from LGA in 1966 for the record high! ugh January 1996 was severely undermeasured so that 81" figure from LGA is probably much more accurate, note the differences between LGA (27") vs Central Park (21"). This isn't new for Central Park, they also undermeasured PD2 2003 (26" at JFK vs 20" at Central Park), February 1983 (20"+ at both JFK and LGA, 18" at Central Park), February 1969 (20"+ at both LGA and JFK, 15" at Central Park), February 1961 (25" at JFK and 24" at LGA, while only 16" at Central Park.) Trust me you’re talking to the guy that knows this story too well. I’ve had a weather forum name for over 20 years honoring their incompetence. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Yes 107 from LGA in 1966 for the record high! ugh January 1996 was severely undermeasured so that 81" figure from LGA is probably much more accurate, note the differences between LGA (27") vs Central Park (21"). This isn't new for Central Park, they also undermeasured PD2 2003 (26" at JFK vs 20" at Central Park), February 1983 (20"+ at both JFK and LGA, 18" at Central Park), February 1969 (20"+ at both LGA and JFK, 15" at Central Park), February 1961 (25" at JFK and 24" at LGA, while only 16" at Central Park.) Good afternoon Liberty. I may have been tempted to check the CPK’s zoo keeper measurers driveway after the late night measurement. As always … 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I checked these out-- wild that the Northern Lights (and pink colored at that!) were visible as far south as Vernon, NJ and Erie, PA! I wonder what kind of camera settings are needed to capture these? Others in this list were from as far south as Missouri and Oklahoma! The best ones were of course from Scandanavia, the happiest place on Earth lol. https://spaceweathergallery2.com/index.php?&title=aurora&starting_point=0https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193381https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193317https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193266https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193125https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193290https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193535https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193525https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193514https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193511https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193510https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193492https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193316https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=193487 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Nothing like good old-fashioned NJ ‘cookies n’ cream’ snowpiles. Just beautiful! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Nothing like good old-fashioned NJ ‘cookies n’ cream’ snowpiles. Just beautiful! I wonder what that tastes like Probably nothing like cookies and cream though it'll probably be crunchy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just occurred to me that we are coming up on the *30* year anniversary of the Storm of the Century. That's both ridiculous and scary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Just occurred to me that we are coming up on the *30* year anniversary of the Storm of the Century. That's both ridiculous and scary. I consider December 1992 to be the storm of the century, it had FAR greater impacts, the city was wrecked in the wake of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just occurred to me that we are coming up on the *30* year anniversary of the Storm of the Century. That's both ridiculous and scary.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/1/2023 at 12:17 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Do you do the same for the high records? I believe LaGuardia recorded 81 or so inches in 1995/96, I’m sure Don or Chris could give us the exact figure, yet the 75.6 at Central Park the same season is considered the all time record. You can’t have one without the other. No offense intended, because there isn’t any, but of course no one cares what number you’re going with LOL. LGA's record is 77.9" during winter 1995-96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 A general question, not aimed at any specific person, do you consider the Central Park snowfall "problem" to be lowball measurement or something more related to site problems in exposure to the full amount of snow that could fall on a wide open flat space? I know a park is supposed to be a wide open flat space but I gather they measure fairly close to some obstructions and there are trees around (albeit some are probably bare of leaves in snowfall months). I live in a snowy place so I am well acquainted with the large variations in snow depth after snowfalls around this rather small town, so I would imagine in NYC there would be considerable differences over small distances. Then also, what's the opinion on historical trends in this snowfall measurement problem? Could I assume that all NYC snowfall is 10 or 20 per cent below what actually fell, ever since the earliest days? The weather station was not in the park before 1920 from what I've read. If there has always been a similar problem then at least the historical record is useful since one case can be compared to another (both being in error by a similar percentage). If there's a trend in measurement problems, then that should be factored into any analysis. One optimistic way of looking at it, they have at least managed to measure 4500 inches of snow over 150 years, and that's 375 feet of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Just occurred to me that we are coming up on the *30* year anniversary of the Storm of the Century. That's both ridiculous and scary. I know the impact was far beyond the snowfall amounts in NYC for that storm, but the 10.6 inches recorded doesn’t even place it in NYC’s Top 50 snowstorms, for inches fallen, of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I know the impact was far beyond the snowfall amounts in NYC for that storm, but the 10.6 inches recorded doesn’t even place it in NYC’s Top 50 snowstorms, for inches fallen, of all time. and it shouldn't. The biggest storm by far that season was the amazing December 1992 noreaster. That was the greatest storm I have seen in my entire life and had FAR more impact than any snowstorm that I've ever seen. March 1993 was 12 inches here and the last time we had double digits from a single storm in March but even had it been all snow it still would not have the enduring impact of December 1992 which changed entire coastlines forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 hours ago, Roger Smith said: A general question, not aimed at any specific person, do you consider the Central Park snowfall "problem" to be lowball measurement or something more related to site problems in exposure to the full amount of snow that could fall on a wide open flat space? I know a park is supposed to be a wide open flat space but I gather they measure fairly close to some obstructions and there are trees around (albeit some are probably bare of leaves in snowfall months). I live in a snowy place so I am well acquainted with the large variations in snow depth after snowfalls around this rather small town, so I would imagine in NYC there would be considerable differences over small distances. Then also, what's the opinion on historical trends in this snowfall measurement problem? Could I assume that all NYC snowfall is 10 or 20 per cent below what actually fell, ever since the earliest days? The weather station was not in the park before 1920 from what I've read. If there has always been a similar problem then at least the historical record is useful since one case can be compared to another (both being in error by a similar percentage). If there's a trend in measurement problems, then that should be factored into any analysis. One optimistic way of looking at it, they have at least managed to measure 4500 inches of snow over 150 years, and that's 375 feet of snow. they cant even measure temperature or wind properly there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Warnings hoisted again for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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