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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Mild December pattern on the EPS for at least the next 10 days. So the storm tracks won’t matter that much for snow near the coast since even a more favorable track would probably be too warm. Amplified systems will probably run too far north and weaker ones could get suppressed. While the day 11-15 forecasts have been too cold recently, the day 11-15 lost the colder pattern it had been showing. 
 

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Lol I was just copy and pasting that myself . So He says we torched into even la la land is what he’s saying .
 

Now the EPS could flip again on ENS but the idea for the last week is for things to warm up on guidance as they get inside 10 days . That would lead to very above normal temp departures For the month  .

My guess Thou is interior northern New England (mountains) could still cash in if that played out . Also from 6-15 look about plus 3 or so for SNE so not a crazy above normal but the trend has been going the wrong way for a week .

But know you will see posts about hour EPS sucks and 10-15 days is la la land which it is .  

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just whipping through the EPS, it looks to me like the real higher-end potential is after about the 20th and towards Xmas, as the shift westward in forcing begins to manifest in the form of some ridging out west as the block also begins to mature.

That period into January is when all hell could break lose.

I think our chances are much more realistic for that time period ( Although there are some slight chances still for some snow before the end of this year, and I do hope it happens on Christmas ).

You know there's going to be some pushback to your statement as far as the possible change for January, but again, climatologically, it makes more sense for us to have the higher chances of colder and snowy weather for January.

Anyway. I'm just waiting for the negative Nelly's to start posting lol

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean a thread, I mean a blog update with more of a focus beyond mid month.

The thread I started is under the auspices of ‘risk assessment’ for 13.14.15  Not so much about the totality of the hemisphere that it is embedded within if that’s what you guys are talking about?

I feel 13.14.15’s signal is strong enough that it deserves selection out of the daily din … I haven’t seen anything overnight to dissuade me from that sense, either. In fact if you look at the EPS and GEFs spread so you can see there is a tendency for a miller b now - very primitive attempt at coalescing. 

Yesterday the numerical PNA was showing an elevating index during that time frame while the NAO is relaxing. I haven’t seen the values from last nights computation just yet.  But we are early in the signal so it may wander in and out or coherency for a little while - should be expected. 

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33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just whipping through the EPS, it looks to me like the real higher-end potential is after about the 20th and towards Xmas, as the shift westward in forcing begins to manifest in the form of some ridging out west as the block also begins to mature.

That period into January is when all hell could break lose.

Your Dec/Jan calls are looking pretty good. The blocking we're getting now isn't likely to manifest into anything good until either very late this month and most likely January. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The thread I started is under the auspices of ‘risk assessment’ for 13.14.15  Not so much about the totality of the hemisphere that it is embedded within if that’s what you guys are talking about?

I feel 13.14.15’s signal is strong enough that it deserve selection out of the daily din … I haven’t seen anything overnight to dissuade me from that sense. 

No, I agree with you. Its a valid threat.....just suspecting that the even higher end potential is beyond. Not meant to shift focus away from that thead...not even starting a thread haha

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Your Dec/Jan calls are looking pretty good. The blocking we're getting now isn't likely to manifest into anything good until either very late this month and most likely January. 

Another one who thinks we have to wait.

Be patient because after this weekend it's going to be better.

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Had 17 degrees at the house this morning in Westfield, 20 at work. Bob on WTIC going all in confused for the upcoming weekend forecast

Bob Cox on WTIC has no passion for the most part.  Even when something looks significant(which is nothing currently), he is very reserved and monotone most all the time. I was a WTIC listener and liked it since I was a small child..Bob Steele and company back in the day were just fabulous. I’ve kind of strayed away the past year some what. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

December will be AN I think.

Scott can you comment on the 0z eps , blue waves Negative  assessment of 11-15 period (linked on first post this page)  and how it may differ for SNE , weenies are wondering if crow is to be served or wether things look good , Shaky or whether we simply wait to see if 12eps mirrors 0z before adjusting potentially 

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I agree with you. Its a valid threat.....just suspecting that the even higher end potential is beyond. Not meant to shift focus away from that thead...not even starting a thread haha

Yeeeah 17.18.19 is legit enough for early place holder awareness… Chuck has a thread started I believe. However if we get a significant event out of 13 1415 we’re probably going to cost some for anything that tries to come by just two days later 

part of the problem is that we have a progression or velocity bias in the flow unfortunately… Seems to be a recurring theme now spending many years frankly. Even in this strong blocking episode the models are trying to orchestrate a fast tendency. And it may not even be real - it’s hard to tell  

But wave spacing and atmospheric recovery/physics are real contention concerns. A significant event passing through the region between 14 and 15th tends to be too close for the 17th. 

it can happen… We did something like that 1996. But there’s a reason why we can count on one hand in 30 years how many times that happens  

 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another one who thinks we have to wait.

Be patient because after this weekend it's going to be better.

Even if the storm track is good the airmass is terrible especially where you live. Pacific air won't be enough. 

The Atlantic blocking also isn't ideal with it poking pretty far south leading to AN temps.

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Scott can you comment on the 0z eps , blue waves Negative  assessment of 11-15 period (linked on first post this page)  and how it may differ for SNE , weenies are wondering if crow is to be served or wether things look good , Shaky or whether we simply wait to see if 12eps mirrors 0z before adjusting potentially 

I really like the EPS for New England. Maybe not as great south of here. I don’t really have a reason to poo-poo the below patterns…lack of arctic cold might be a worry in very coastal exposed spots like the Cape and south coast. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When the Mets mainly disappear and don’t address how bad things turned .. it tells me all I need to know unfortunately 

Your hesitation into buying in of the Goldilocks pattern ends up being correct. Meanwhile, the rest of us were giving nude high fives 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I really like the EPS for New England. Maybe not as great south of here. I don’t really have a reason to poo-poo the below patterns…lack of arctic cold might be a worry in very coastal exposed spots like the Cape and south coast. 
 

 

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Thanks for that post will .

Are you concerned that temps have been steadily moderating as forecasts get near 10 days , meaning any continuation of moderating shifts would make this less favorable for inland areas , or no more than normal 

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10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Your hesitation into buying in of the Goldilocks pattern ends up being correct. Meanwhile, the rest of us were giving nude high fives 

Well to be clear, Kevin did post an “All in” last week, when things looked good for Mid Month.  So he was self proclaiming he was all in completely.  
 

Things look to be delayed some, rather than denied. 

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeah 17.18.19 is legit enough for early place holder awareness… Chuck has a thread started I believe. However if we get a significant event out of 13 1415 we’re probably going to cost some for anything that tries to come by just two days later 

part of the problem is that we have a progression or velocity bias in the flow unfortunately… Seems to be a recurring theme now spending many years frankly. Even in this strong blocking episode the models are trying to orchestrate a fast tendency. And it may not even be real - it’s hard to tell  

But wave spacing and atmospheric recovery/physics are real contention concerns. A significant event passing through the region between 14 and 15th tends to be too close for the 17th. 

it can happen… We did something like that 1996. But there’s a reason why we can count on one hand in 30 years how many times that happens  

 

Very true, but regardless, I think the higher end potential is beyond mid month....whether that be the 20th of the 28th.

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