Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No I mean from the system itself. It’s a broad area of mid level saturation. Yeah, it doesn't look too bad for some light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, it doesn't look too bad for some light precip. They’ll be a coastal front near BOS and down 95 give or take. Type of deal with a narrow area could get 1-2 on the cold side of CF. Too early to nail that down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Canadian keeps everyone frozen more snow for CNE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Don't forget the sunscreen... Always! I hate the sun, never understood roasting on the beach etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They’ll be a coastal front near BOS and down 95 give or take. Type of deal with a narrow area could get 1-2 on the cold side of CF. Too early to nail that down. It’s a nice widespread 1-3 for most south of 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a nice widespread 1-3 for most south of 90 Sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 If anyone is interested… after spending a few moments observing the EPS and GEFS behavior across the eastern and northeastern pacific …downstream throughout North America, specifically pertaining to the 12th through 20th, a fairly coherent difference leaps out for me. It’s the handling over the EPO domain region. That difference is having a fairly significant instructional impact on how the pattern’s synoptic construct orients (crucially) itself downstream. The EPO is less significantly in the negative EPO phase state. Downstream over the continent it becomes a “seesaw” difference in forcing. The GEFs being stronger in the negative EPO phase, bottoms out the heights more in the southwest lat/lons; which is actually not a bad fit within its own reasoning. That would concomitantly lift the westerlies in latitude over eastern North America. The Pacific handling is still an issue here ladies and gentlemen… At the same time, between day’s 7 through 11… the GEFs has taken to dispersing the negative NAO phase considerably - more quickly or more obviously than the EPO. It seems the GFS ‘species’ has been doing this with the NAO off and on - poor continuity - over the last week. I’m not sure I trust that part of this Both ensemble means carry a storm that winds up in the Plains between the 13th and 14th through the east and or SE Canada between the 15th and the 16th, but the upstream handling at large scales, and how it relays from the Pacific over North America , continues to be a problem, and the forcing mechanisms are critical to eventual system type/impacts. The GEF like hemisphere would promote more of a Great Lakes primary with only weak secondary … if only there because of boundary layer resistance in having cold air that is residually wedged east of Appalachia …etc. The EPO on the other hand… Having a flatter negative EPO digs less into southwest which lowers the heights over eastern North America. But while also maintaining a slightly more robust negative NAO structure out in time everything evolves further south and in fact there are a lot of EPO members, toward the 15th, like Scott was saying they end up with a pretty stem wound secondary/Miller B result. So either way there’s likely to be a significant winter storm affecting the 13th through the 17th of the month from the Plains to the north eastern US and we’re still in the process of figuring out exactly what storm type that will be and where. The two primary ensemble clusters that are typically used, their differences are crucially meaningful as to how all that lays out 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Canadian keeps everyone frozen more snow for CNE Is this the same model that dumped 24” on us for the 12th….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I do wonder if we’ll see more of a broader shield of lighter snow from the mid levels. That’s a strong s/w. Yeah I will be going more bullish if this is the real track of the vort and shortwave..... Now if it ends up south of this depiction, then I would fade the snowfall, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at least widespread steady light snow if it looks like that aloft. Even if it's just an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I do wonder if we’ll see more of a broader shield of lighter snow from the mid levels. That’s a strong s/w. 6Z EURO is very encouraging for a widespread SNE dealio 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Boston never had 2” of snow 1936-37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I will be going more bullish if this is the real track of the vort and shortwave..... Now if it ends up south of this depiction, then I would fade the snowfall, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at least widespread steady light snow if it looks like that aloft. Even if it's just an inch or two. Getting on the board again pre 15th would be excellent. 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 6Z EURO is very encouraging for a widespread SNE dealio Yeah, it looked good through 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was pretty meh for NYC area but gfs more robust. As far as the 14-15 the ensembles definitely have more of an interesting look for the interior, especially for CNE and NNE. This is pretty interesting on the EPS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1936-37 That does not seem right. They did not have 6.4” in 06-07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is pretty interesting on the EPS I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1936-37 That must just be DJF? BOS lowest for the whole cold season is 9.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I will be going more bullish if this is the real track of the vort and shortwave..... Now if it ends up south of this depiction, then I would fade the snowfall, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at least widespread steady light snow if it looks like that aloft. Even if it's just an inch or two. You must mean "bullish" in terms of arial coverage of light snows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: That does not seem right. They did not have 6.4” in 06-07 I think it's just DJF....I recall BOS squandering their shot at futility in March 2007. I don't see the point in leaving March out though....that is a snowier month in some places than December is. I could sort of see an argument for discarding months like Oct/Nov/Apr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That must just be DJF? BOS lowest for the whole cold season is 9.0" 17.1” 06-07. Must be DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think it's just DJF....I recall BOS squandering their shot at futility in March 2007. I don't see the point in leaving March out though....that is a snowier month in some places than December is. I could sort of see an argument for discarding months like Oct/Nov/Apr. Yeah season as in Met winter I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1936-37 What is this from? xmACIS shows 1936-7 at 9.0, 2011-2 at 9.3 for all-time lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is pretty interesting on the EPS I mean the HP is nosing into FL prior to the storm arrival lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You must mean "bullish" in terms of arial coverage of light snows.... Yes. But need that s/w to maintain its “curl” if you will and to remain more north before it gets shunted ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That must just be DJF? BOS lowest for the whole cold season is 9.0" Yea I just went month by month. BOSTON 11 inches 06-97 and 21 36/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Take the under on temps this weekend too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea I just went month by month. BOSTON 11 inches 06-97 and 21 36/37 They had 17.1 total for winter 06-07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You must mean "bullish" in terms of arial coverage of light snows.... Yes, though there could certainly be a heavier stripe somewhere. We'll just have to see how vigorous the shortwave is when it is knocking on our door. I wouldn't be forecasting much for our area right now (maybe more bullish in SW CT), but there is kind of a low-grade bust potential on that one. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yes. But need that s/w to maintain its “curl” if you will and to remain more north before it gets shunted ESE. Yea, I think the upside is like a general 1-3" at this point, which is fine by me because I wasn't getting a major event, anyway. Would be nice to get festive, too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, ariof said: What is this from? xmACIS shows 1936-7 at 9.0, 2011-2 at 9.3 for all-time lows. Rain xmacis from Nov 1 to May 1 and it still doesn't match adding by month. IDK messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes, though there could certainly be a heavier stripe somewhere. We'll just have to see how vigorous the shortwave is when it is knocking on our door. I wouldn't be forecasting much for our area right now (maybe more bullish in SW CT), but there is kind of a low-grade bust potential on that one. If we can maintain the ULL vorticity dropping in over us as iT explodes over the Atlantic someone will hit the Norlun jackpot. Just has that familiar look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now