December 2022 Obs/Disc

[SJonesWX]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I stand by my previous comment. I think the next two events are low probability for SNE.:. Maybe Sunday/Monday produces some light snow, but I’m not convinced of that yet.

It easily could be 10 days 

congrats on the jackpot Monday (and maybe thrusday)

19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Bob that snow map from the day before Xmas eve system is comical . It absolutely torches Essex county mass and into at least Haverhill and Andover And drops 1.5-2 feet in SE mass just inland from coastal Plymouth county 

 

Ray, we know it won’t happen but you gotta laugh at this one 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sn10_024h&rh=2022120812&fh=372

that's a cute weenie pointing straight at Mt. tolland, apparantly the ballsack is hovering over weymouth and taunton

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get it though...he's been screwed quite a bit.  Yeah its day 7-8....but "can something just work out for once" mentality creeps in. 

I may not see much either. Depends where the CF is. Hell none of us may see much. 

Exactly..

I don't think that was a classic, Kev..that was just like an OES streamer in the NE flow ahead of a coastal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Bob that snow map from the day before Xmas eve system is comical . It absolutely torches Essex county mass and into at least Haverhill and Andover And drops 1.5-2 feet in SE mass just inland from coastal Plymouth county 

 

Ray, we know it won’t happen but you gotta laugh at this one 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sn10_024h&rh=2022120812&fh=372

I'd be okay there...I'm a bit west of that gradient.

[brooklynwx99]

we're in for it after that "cutter" mid next week that'll probably just redevelop given the block in Canada and ULL to the east

that -EPO ridge into W Canada that builds poleward is drool worthy. this is all moving forward in time, too. there are going to be some high end chances during the latter half of the month

 

[CoastalWx]

GFS went 12/9/05 in the extended. Like 200m height falls in 9 hrs lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh please… I just got a chance to finally look at the Gfs on lunch break… The 12 Z version? that’s clearly beginning to respond to NAO stressing.  Yep the “Minnesota squeeze“ in full effect.  

…no question about it. 
 

I agree. Gonna end up a classic SWFE.

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Christmas miracle on the GFS?

It’s a helluva little nuke there huh

[Allsnow]

GEPS back to full KU look in the 11-15 day 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we're in for it after that "cutter" mid next week that'll probably just redevelop given the block in Canada and ULL to the east

that -EPO ridge into W Canada that builds poleward is drool worthy. this is all moving forward in time, too. there are going to be some high end chances during the latter half of the month

 

Yeah this is in my opinion a much better presentation for storm risk assessing… Unfortunately it’s a little bit too far outside my taste without a tremendous amount of support from the Telecon‘s but they are coming around. Hmmm

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS went 12/9/05 in the extended. Like 200m height falls in 9 hrs lol. 

Good run with fun scattered around.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Bob that snow map from the day before Xmas eve system is comical . It absolutely torches Essex county mass and into at least Haverhill and Andover And drops 1.5-2 feet in SE mass just inland from coastal Plymouth county 

 

Ray, we know it won’t happen but you gotta laugh at this one 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sn10_024h&rh=2022120812&fh=372

I’ll take that

[ORH_wxman]

The magnitude of that AK/EPO ridge is something I haven't seen a long time for an ensemble mean that far out....it's showing up on all the ensemble guidance too. Not just one suite. It's builidng all the way into the East Siberian Sea.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS says to plant Pansies in front of the Elf's shop in the extended.

[Allsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The magnitude of that AK/EPO ridge is something I haven't seen a long time for an ensemble mean that far out....it's showing up on all the ensemble guidance too. Not just one suite. It's builidng all the way into the East Siberian Sea.

Shades of 13/14 or 14/15 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs looked loaded to keep delivering on that run 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Shades of 13/14 or 14/15 

Yeah those are probably the last two winters I saw something like that. Basically taking the flow straight from Siberia into the CONUS.....a true "Siberian Express" pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we're in for it after that "cutter" mid next week that'll probably just redevelop given the block in Canada and ULL to the east

that -EPO ridge into W Canada that builds poleward is drool worthy. this is all moving forward in time, too. there are going to be some high end chances during the latter half of the month

 

No qualms from me...green light means "go".

This fits well within the context of my preseason conceptualization.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree. Gonna end up a classic SWFE.

And it may even end up with more than that…. 
personally as a “meteorological purist“ I haven’t been a particularly huge fan of the Southwest flow even ( since I lost weight – j/k…) terminology since its inception back whence. I mean if a storm is generating a Miller B, it’s a tilted Vortx in the vertical with a primary escaping through the eastern lakes …that’s southwest flow but cyclogen taking over - that’s a Miller b.  I mean there’s a reason why thats codified and not the other thing.
 

be that as it may …I get what it means to call it a Southwest event.  And I don’t entirely disagree with his essence either so I’m on the fence with the term really

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah those are probably the last two winters I saw something like that. Basically taking the flow straight from Siberia into the CONUS.....a true "Siberian Express" pattern.

here, though, we're likely going to see some better transient -NAO spells... those winters have insanely positive +NAOs, so we could see slower evolutions here

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Shades of 13/14 or 14/15 

Has that EPO look, but this looks has a neg AO (of course 13/14 had a pos AO)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

And it may even end up with more than that…. 
personally as a “meteorological purist“ I haven’t been a particularly huge fan of the Southwest flow even ( since I lost weight – j/k…) terminology since its inception back whence. I mean if a storm is generating a Miller B, it’s a tilted Vortx in the vertical with a primary escaping through the eastern lakes …that’s southwest flow but cyclogen taking over - that’s a Miller b.  I mean there’s a reason why thats codified and not the other thing.
 

be that as it may …I get what it means to call it a Southwest event.  And I don’t entirely disagree with his essence either so I’m on the fence with the term really

Oh, I get it....SWFE is a tacit admission to coastal redevelopment owed to polar resistance, but its just a matter of how far along in the evolution does the system get and how soon-

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every fu&&king event for the past 4+ years has been stretch armstrong in Methuen, so what the hell do you want from me....

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here, though, we're likely going to see some better transient -NAO spells... those winters have insanely positive +NAOs, so we could see slower evolutions here

Yeah if we're rooting for an all time exotic frigid slow-moving blizzard.....it's probably the pattern we want. But even aside from that, the slower flow should help amplify more shortwaves instead of fighting meat grinder fast-flow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah those are probably the last two winters I saw something like that. Basically taking the flow straight from Siberia into the CONUS.....a true "Siberian Express" pattern.

2013 got a double shout-out in my December analog composite and 2014 a one-off shout in my January composite.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro looks decent early 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I honestly liked that one.

[CoastalWx]

Euro with a more widespread -SN snowfall. I can role with that. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro with a more widespread -SN snowfall. I can role with that. 

A tad faster with precip but at hr 90 seems weaker then other guidance / less saturation/ forcing?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A tad faster with precip but at hr 96 seems weaker then other guidance / less saturation/ forcing?

I was comparing to 00z. Definitely weaker than the GFS..but that was a much better look compared to 00z.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro with a more widespread -SN snowfall. I can role with that. 

Gotta watch for some embedded bands too...the profile is kind of unstable under the shortwave. Very steep lapse rates above 800-850.