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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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7 minutes ago, JoMo said:

lol. Still a lot of runs left. Congrats Minneapolis?  

Seems unlikely to me that we trend south over the next 4 days but we shall see. Most of us have been on the southern edge for a while now and that rarely turns out favorably 4-5 days out. 

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6 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

What’s odd is to my unprofessional eye, the gfs diggs south and west a touch more and yet the precip shifted considerably north. Want to see the ensembles and see if this winds up being an outlier.

The low tracks way north. A low going from Nevada, mo to southern Illinois isn’t gonna produce much for most of us here. 

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The trend has not been kind to most of us in the last 12-18 hours. Models shifting away from a more amplified/west solution to one where the energy wraps up east of our domain, with a handoff at the east coast. 

Bottom line continues to be, as it always has been, the major cold coming. Very low wind chills of -10 to -30 possible for everyone by Friday morning. 

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Yeah, it would seem models are starting to align in this scenario. Here in ICT, my guess is we're looking an advisory criteria event with the main story being the wind and cold. That said, even a few inches of snow with the wind and temps will make travel very difficult for a time. I'm still holding out a bit of hope this digs and amplifies a bit sooner to pull this back southwest a bit. 

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1 minute ago, RocketWX said:

Yeah, it would seem models are starting to align in this scenario. Here in ICT, my guess is we're looking an advisory criteria event with the main story being the wind and cold. That said, even a few inches of snow with the wind and temps will make travel very difficult for a time. I'm still holding out a bit of hope this digs and amplifies a bit sooner to pull this back southwest a bit. 

Yeah that feels like the safe bet here, but it wouldn't shock me to see a blizzard warning either...given we'll have >50 mph winds as the snow is falling. 

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4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Yeah that feels like the safe bet here, but it wouldn't shock me to see a blizzard warning either...given we'll have >50 mph winds as the snow is falling. 

Yeah, that front is no joke. This is going to be wild to watch in real time as it plows south down the plains. There are going to be quite a few inflatable Christmas decorations lost in this wind if folks don't prepare. 

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I've been loosely tracking the GFS Kuchera totals for my backyard. It just went from 17-20" in the prior runs to 5" on the 12Z. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy with 5" of snow, but the trend this morning seems to be a quicker and less amped system for this area. Still plenty of time for things to change.

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....and this is why I don't get the Charlie Brown optimism. That being said... this is still going to be brutal and memorable system. We may not get a bazillion inches of snow, but this type of cold, snow, and wind is pretty rare this far south. The blizzard word does look feasible still. 

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Any idea when the system will begin being sampled? I just wonder if that will make a difference in the track of the low on future model runs? I've seen a couple mets mention artic highs tends to force a more southerly track, but the models want to take it on a more OK, into southern MO. Idk, wishful thinking maybe on my part. Holding out hope *fingers crossed*

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36 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

1671753600-wfIRLBBKgf4.png

 

I'm not asking for 10 inches here in North Tulsa, I'd be happy with 3-4(heck 2 at the rate it's going).

Just need a 30 mile shift south. I don't feel like that's egregious to ask for at this stage of the game, still possible...

I know ratios are likely to be above 10-1, but i wouldn’t rely on the kuchera numbers either. They are notoriously overdone historically. 

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1 hour ago, MUWX said:

I know ratios are likely to be above 10-1, but i wouldn’t rely on the kuchera numbers either. They are notoriously overdone historically. 

Normally I don't since people tend to use Kuchera as hopium or for shock value, but I feel like these temps truly warrant it. I feel like it would be more accurate than using a base 10:1, even if it's still blown out of proportion a bit.

 

Speaking of, here is the latest NAM.

 

1671753600-BAtz7pmxu9k.png

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Chicago makes a good point though about those ratios..

 

Expecting snow to liquid ratios to average around 15:1, possibly 20:1 western CWA where DGZ
will be deeper. The one factor that *should* keep the snow:liquid
ratios somewhat in check is the very strong winds which would tend
to rip about the larger/fluffier dendrites.
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