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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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19 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I’ll never forget a couple years back when we were under a winter storm warning and it still completely busted. 

I'll never forget that time that we were under a WSW and the system came out farther NW than predicted. Wichita looked at the satellite and immediately dropped all their warnings since all the models were wrong and it was tracking farther NW. Springfield stood their ground and were completely wrong as temps stayed too warm for snow. 

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57 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

The EURO ensembles seem less impressive to me today. 

I am still less than assured that this is a strong setup. Some snow for Christmas would be great. The cold is still looking nuts. 

Yeah, the cold is a sure thing. The amount of snow and how far south it gets is more uncertain. The one thing that has been happening is the Euro has been caving to the GFS more and more this year. Also stuff has been ending up farther west over time. Time will tell. 

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51 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Hey guys. I recently relocated from North Carolina to the Northland of K.C. (MO). I'm looking forward to experiencing my first midwest winter storm (hopefully). Thanks for all the info here. 

Welcome to the forum!!!  Hopefully this one will be a nice “Welcome to the Midwest” for you.  

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22 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Man, that's one juicy GFS run. I'm lost trying to figure out what the moisture source for the system is. But, if it happens like this....widespread blizzard conditions for a lot of folks. 

It's dynamics plus the extent of the cold air. I just noticed the 50-55 kt 925 MB winds at hour 99 on the backside. Sheesh. (Although the GFS is usually too wet this far out)

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41 minutes ago, JoMo said:

It's dynamics plus the extent of the cold air. I just noticed the 50-55 kt 925 MB winds at hour 99 on the backside. Sheesh. (Although the GFS is usually too wet this far out)

That makes sense. There is some backing of the low level flow at 925 and 850 mb as well, which would aid in the increased precip, too. I agree with you that the GFS is too wet for this setup. If that signal shows up later....hide the women and children. 

By far, the winds and cold will be the greatest societal impact from this, but the snow cannot be ignored. 

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