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Wx 24/7

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Everything posted by Wx 24/7

  1. MOD risk upgrade in the latest SPC update for NC and NE OK. Probabilities have increased as well, especially on the wind side of things.
  2. That's because I was down in Mountain View, AR. I got about 2.5" of snow down there.
  3. Actually only need 1/2" of sleet apparently to get a WSW. It should meet that criteria.
  4. Indeed! Lightning showing up on my RadarScope in the Bella Vista area as well. Hoping most of this band is sleet or snow. I wouldn't want freezing rain with this wave.
  5. Just heard local KY3 met in Springfield say road temps are already in lower 20s so whatever falls is going to coat/glaze/stick to the roads immediately.
  6. Sleet and freezing rain is going to be quite a mess. I am especially concerned about NW AR in the major cities of the area on up into far southern MO.
  7. It is quite interesting to me that the NAM has been a bit lighter in terms of precip totals, compared to its normal overzealous precip output. Additionally, it tends to favor more sleet... while the EURO has been very consistent with very intense freezing rain numbers. I hope that the NAM is right. The ice outputs from the EURO are alarming, especially in Northern Arkansas.
  8. It is awfully quiet in here. NWS Little Rock is on board with a Winter Storm Watch. Springfield seems to be less aggressive at this point.
  9. These are not the kind of words you want to hear in an AFD. This came from this morning's in Tulsa:
  10. Agree that most models are in decent agreement that there is a system that bears watching next week and it looks to be very impactful somewhere in the region.
  11. This is more of a classic system for us... rain and storms on the front side and a backside wallop of something. I just don't want ice.
  12. Storm total here ended up being about 7 3/4".
  13. I finally went out and measured about 10:30. We have 6.5" in Monett and we are still getting some good snow. Think the evening and overnight event may surprise some. I think 1-3" is definitely not out of the equation for a lot of us.
  14. I have no way of knowing how much snow we have. The drifting has happened in areas that it doesn't normally drift in. Our south facing front door had an inch or two drifted in front of it when I opened it this morning. Will wait until it is all said and done before I measure for a final total.
  15. Yes. TSA also mentioned "near blizzard conditions" in their AFD. This is going to be quite the next 18 hours.
  16. Things look to be progressing pretty much as expected. Probably lots of people who will wake up this morning and say "BUST!" but don't realize the main wave comes through beginning this afternoon. Looks like some potentially very heavy snow for a lot of us on here this evening into the overnight.
  17. Just leaving this here... 1. Someone notices the possibility of a potent storm moving thru the area in 7-10 days.2. 3-4 days are spent pointing out that off-hour runs are stupid and useless and throwing out any model that doesn't appear to confirm accumulating snow along the I-44 corridor.3. 2-3 days are spent trying to determine what the heck the I-44 corridor actually means.4. During the same period, every registered user askes the handful of posters who actually understand the models how much snow will fall at their nearest cross-street - and they ask 6-10 times after each model run.5. System will be compared to every big snow event in the last 28 years.6. As the system approaches, people who may (or may not) know what they are talking about post accumulation maps.7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles.8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.)9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street.10. System hits Texas and Oklahoma. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.)11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all.12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. (Does any of the other old timers miss the pictures of Rosie's feet??)13. System moves to the North/South/East/West and bombs out on someone else. Postings cease. Newbies are addicted...... -- This is from FOX 2's Chris Higgins out of STL... thought it was great stuff. I edited it just a bit to make a bit more applicable to our region.14. New system shows up - See #1.
  18. Once this snow and ice is laid down, GFS tonight doesn't warm parts of SW MO above 32º until Monday afternoon.
  19. The trends on the 06z NAM are definitely concerning. 06z EURO also ramps up the ice, but keeps the heavy snow, too. I don't want the freezing rain. Ugh. The GFS continues to hold serve. I hope that it is right, but that warm nose is way too pesky for my liking. I am glad I cut some limbs and stocked up on supplies yesterday.
  20. Yep... continues to look icier and dicier. Hate to waste this moisture on sleet, but that is a much better outcome than freezing rain.
  21. Anyone else still wondering what happens to totally mess this up?
  22. Canadian traditionally has a cold bias if I am not mistaken.
  23. Normally I make fun of the people who rush out and buy ingredients for french toast (milk, eggs, and bread), but I am going to be getting my preparations done this weekend. If at worst, I have extra batteries, gasoline, and wood for my heat... that is better than the opposing possibilities. Lack of supply in a variety of different areas exacerbates this problem. I continue to worry about that pesky warm nose and the ice potential.
  24. That's what I thought. Just wanted to double check. Thanks!
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