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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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13 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

It looks like the most recent runs of the NAM and HRRR have cut back somewhat on the precipitation amounts for the OKC area tomorrow night.

Yep. What has been a trend too far south with the northern extent of precip the last few days now looks to have been a trend too far north with the main energy as it moves through. They are trending in the right direction for those north of I-40.  Thank you dry air! Don't want freezing rain. 

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hmm...ECMWF continuing to hold its ground the second system next week potentially bringing accumulating snow to SC KS. GFS has shown a farther north track. Still too early for any confidence but maybe we'll luck out on one these systems yet. Regardless of precip type, the moisture it appears we'll get from two systems will be welcomed. 

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The end of winter is quickly approaching, and we may actually have our first severe weather threat this Sunday per SPC. I haven't looked in detail at this setup at all yet. Beyond this, we might have one last shot of winter. The AO is currently positive and trending even more positive, but it appears moving into the first few days of March the AO should trend back down to neutral and potentially negative. I think the first week of March could be our last shot to get any winter precip. We'll see how it plays out, but regardless I think there are going to be some pretty hefty systems crossing the middle of the country over the next few weeks. I just hope we can ease this drought in Kansas more than anything before heading into late Spring/Summer. 

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