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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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48 minutes ago, JoMo said:

The Euro with the ice?

Yeah, lots of chatter about the possibility of a large storm. Saw a post that the NWS blend of models was showing over a half inch of ice early next week. Typically the NWS seems to rely pretty heavily on that model. 

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6 minutes ago, Ozarkwx said:

Last night came through for Eureka Springs (6-10"), heavier to our south.  The roads cleared right up, but yikes the power outages.  Spending the night out of the home due to continuing power outage.

Meanwhile this for mid next week, maybe.....

ecmwf-deterministic-arkansas-frzr_total-5274400.png

Sorry to hear about your power. Safe to say that if the euro verifies for next week there may be more power issues. I love winter weather but I am not sure I want an ice storm. 

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I’m supposed to fly out of Tulsa to Florida next week for work. My flight leaves at 12:09 Monday, and it’s safe to say that I could be cutting it VERY close, and who knows about my return flight on Thursday. 
I don’t really love the idea of leaving my wife and daughter behind in an ice storm, and I don’t want to miss it,so part of me hopes the ice moves in earlier Monday AM so my flight gets canceled, and we just push the trip back.

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Awfully quiet in here with some icy weather potentially starting as early as tomorrow. 
I think Sunday might catch a lot of people off guard with freezing drizzle. 

I've seen some talk of freezing drizzle tomorrow but not from the NWS. Itll be interesting to see how it plays out 

 

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Awfully quiet in here with some icy weather potentially starting as early as tomorrow. 
I think Sunday might catch a lot of people off guard with freezing drizzle. 

I agree with this sentiment. I am a bit concerned about the potential, too. It seems to be one of those events where weather offices are more reactive than proactive. I guess we will see what happens in their afternoon forecast packages. Meanwhile, each of these waves of energy this week seem to be handled differently by each model. Looks messy in terms of forecasting for sure. 

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8 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

I agree with this sentiment. I am a bit concerned about the potential, too. It seems to be one of those events where weather offices are more reactive than proactive. I guess we will see what happens in their afternoon forecast packages. Meanwhile, each of these waves of energy this week seem to be handled differently by each model. Looks messy in terms of forecasting for sure. 

Yeah, freezing drizzle events always seem to creep up and catch everyone off guard. Part of that I think is because they are hard to forecast, but also highly impactful, Mets play it safe by not sounding the alarm since models don’t pick up well. But I’ll be interested to see this play out. 
 

Huge messy forecast, not much agreement on models and just heavily leaving on the euro seems to be the play by everyone right now.

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5 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Yeah, freezing drizzle events always seem to creep up and catch everyone off guard. Part of that I think is because they are hard to forecast, but also highly impactful, Mets play it safe by not sounding the alarm since models don’t pick up well. But I’ll be interested to see this play out. 
 

Huge messy forecast, not much agreement on models and just heavily leaving on the euro seems to be the play by everyone right now.

I have been really looking at the SREF and ARW means as a general middle of the road approach. If they are even close to correct, the forecast will be much icier than currently advertised this week. Not sure what to think. GFS seems out to lunch. 

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1 hour ago, ouamber said:

The lightning and thundering sleet in Tulsa is incredible right now! Very heavy! Roads are covered at my location just a mile south of I-44 and Lewis.:o

Thunder sleet and freezing rain is pretty wild. I remember it doing that here a few years ago with a temp of like 12 degrees out. 

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image.jpeg.b6569e7bb54b86f88ca5e8f9a57a4e5a.jpeg
image.jpeg.672c4974a064beba7572d39ddb274c51.jpeg

 

When the sleet first moved in this morning we had thunder and small hail with it as well.

Unfortunately, up here in Owasso we’ve been on the northern fringe of all of this, so haven’t gotten much. But since I work in Broken Arrow where they’ve been getting sleet all day, today and tomorrow are work from home days!

 

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1 hour ago, Doramo said:

It's pouring sleet and snow currently @ 19 degrees .   Over and inch of accumulation . And still no sight of DOT.....Hmmmm? It looks like I'll have to chance and driving SLOWLY to the Dollar Gen three miles away to get some things tomorrow ..

We got about a quarter inch of sleet here. I'm glad it wasn't all freezing rain! Sounds like the rest of these pieces of energy the next few days misses us to the south. Really beautiful out there but the roads are bad, even in the city. Of course here they don't plow the subdivisions lol. Be careful!! 

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I think people need to watch late tomorrow into Thursday... especially in NW AR. Models have been terrible this week at catching these waves. Temps are waaaaay overdone in my opinion. Good setup for a surprise overperformance of ice accumulations. Would not want to be in Central AR for sure these next 24-36 hours. 

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1/2" of snow today with some sleet . Huge burst of half dollar size flakes at the end   Nice . DOT finally salted my road this morning so I was able to make a quick run to Dollar Gen before the short lived snow/sleet hit . The road out front is back to hazardous again. Some local talk of pending freezing rain event  tomorrow night into Thursday Hmmmm?:o  

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