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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


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2 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Okay you guys be reasonable and realistic and more or less ignore the precip on the models.

Meanwhile I'm going to lock up this 12z GFS run that gives me 3-4" of snow IMBY on Dec. 23 and single-digit lows on Christmas Eve as absolute Gospel.

I really liked the one that gave me 14" on the 24th a few posts back. lol

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1 hour ago, NWAflizzard said:

I know I was hating on the GFS mere days ago but I will definitely take what the 06z is serving up at 228 hours. This would be a win for the entire forum. The cold air it brings in behind this would mean a white Christmas.image.thumb.png.1f0eb7ca2640c6eedff59a3d03b733b4.png

Indeed both the GFS and Euro last night on the 0Z runs were on board with a snowy scenario. sn10_acc.us_sc.png

sn10_acc.us_sc.png

 

EDIT: Just saw the 06z run on the GFS, nearly two feet for parts of OK/KS. Yeah right. lol sn10_acc.us_sc.png

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:snowwindow:

Hey Everybody! Glad to be model watching and snow dreaming with you all again!! Just glanced at a few of the 00z runs...eek!:yikes: I'm not a fan of blistering cold with no snow! Lol! So, here's hoping we get a 2011 type of storm this year! Hate to see all the cold air wasted though!

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Winter time is back. Hey all. Good to be following along again. Still looks like a significant cold snap is on its way next week. The waves that rotate through will work themselves out in the meantime. Don't get hung up too much on run-to-run snowfall numbers. Looks like the first wave arrives Monday. Will be glad when NAM gets in range as it handles arctic air better. 

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I was texting with Dan Skoff about this exact thing yesterday.  He thinks the deterministic runs struggle that far out with the details.   Does anyone still have access to the ensembles?  
 
The system on the 23rd looks interesting.  12z GFS was more robust with the wave and explodes it just east of us in to the SE. 

Should be a fun ride. 

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