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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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Ensembles will give you a broader picture when it comes to long range outlooks. They're best used to see a general pattern and to check if the deterministic (control) is an outlier. I remember a few years back we were looking at a snow event and following the ensembles and they all ended up being wrong. Had like a 90% chance we'd get snow drop to a 0% chance in like 2 model runs. 

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20 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

For simplicity and ease of access, you have this one here to play around with on the COD page. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Previous Run Comparison: https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/prun/?type=2022121506-GEFS-SGP-winter-snens-258

 

Stormdragonwx - When I click on the first link it takes me to what looks like the home page. Not sure where to go from there.   Can you describe how to get to (or directly link) to the page to that displays the ensemble snow map.   Thx.

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6 hours ago, Ozarkwx said:

Stormdragonwx - When I click on the first link it takes me to what looks like the home page. Not sure where to go from there.   Can you describe how to get to (or directly link) to the page to that displays the ensemble snow map.   Thx.

On the website I linked I will note it's just the GFS Ensembles. It's the 2nd tab from the right labeled GEFS. Your options for which GEFS data to view are on the left then just run the slider on the bottom to view the forecast hours.  Hope that helps.

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15 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Well that run delivers a White Christmas for like 3/4 of this subforum... and measurable snow on Christmas Eve for central MS and AL.

Now we just need to amp it up.

My former comrades in the Mid-Atlantic sub are going wild

Yeah. Nice GFS run compared to this morning. Canadian had a snowier solution too. Need to check the ensembles and see if they are looking more promising. Thanks stormdragon for that link. White Christmas would be great. 

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1 minute ago, NWAflizzard said:

Yeah. Nice GFS run compared to this morning. Canadian had a snowier solution too. Need to check the ensembles and see if they are looking more promising. Thanks stormdragon for that link. White Christmas would be great. 

CMC has rain changing over to snow. Low forms in central IL, sweeps up to Lake Superior, stalls and bombs out to 977.

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17 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

On the website I linked I will note it's just the GFS Ensembles. It's the 2nd tab from the right labeled GEFS. Your options for which GEFS data to view are on the left then just run the slider on the bottom to view the forecast hours.  Hope that helps.

Thanks, that is a great tool!

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39 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z Euro gonna have a different look for the storm on the 22nd. Interesting. Hope the models reel this one in.

Here is that storm isolated.

FWIW, Tuttle started to pick up on this last night with the UKMET and Icon and now the Euro is beginning to shift west as well on this. If we keep going, this definitey has some high snow amount potential and would definitely equate to a white Christmas for most of us.

 

 

1671861600-4gc83UcIehs.png

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3 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

00z GFS looks like an unorganized hot mess. 

But man look how many Ensembles dump on the 4 state area.

Another thing to note too that hasn't really been covered is with the temps being as cold as some of these models are forecasting, the 10:1 ratio on the models might not be the best way to gauge how much snow will actually fall. If we are looking at teens and single digits, this may be a 20-25:1 ratio with overall amounts still depending on the timing/track of any system that comes thru with sufficient moisture to work with. The latter will be key to all this.

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