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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the goal posts are essentially my version of December, which punts the first week to 10 days of the month for SNE, and the more aggressive versions of yesterday and last night. I don't think that the month will go to shit.

 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That next 10+ days or so are boring. It's more post 12/5..maybe 12/10 IMO. 

Ninja.

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18 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

are you ok today? lots of negative vibes. beer

I believe you have been a member of this forum for over a decade.....you know how he rolls by now.

If it's not wall to wall winter storm threats and permanent snowpack by the first couple days of December, he starts posting about losing half of the season.

It's probably about 50% reverse psychology and 50% truly unrealistic expectations if I had to guess.

 

For those who still believe in empirical numbers....at 1000 feet in central Massachusetts (so by default, colder and snowier than most of SNE), average snowfall in the week leading up to December 5th (so 11/27-12/4) is 1.9 inches and more than half of the years saw no measurable snowfall at all. Only 11% of the seasons saw an advisory (or better) event during that period.

Conversely, in the week following that period, the average was 4.4 inches of snow and only 21% of the years saw no measurable snow in that week while 19% saw a warning snowfall event (6" or more) while 27% saw at least an advisory event. The climo is vastly different once you are into that period.

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I believe you have been a member of this forum for over a decade.....you know how he rolls by now.

If it's not wall to wall winter storm threats and permanent snowpack by the first couple days of December, he starts posting about losing half of the season.

It's probably about 50% reverse psychology and 50% truly unrealistic expectations if I had to guess.

 

For those who still believe in empirical numbers....at 1000 feet in central Massachusetts (so by default, colder and snowier than most of SNE), average snowfall in the week leading up to December 5th (so 11/27-12/4) is 1.9 inches and more than half of the years saw no measurable snowfall at all. Only 11% of the seasons saw an advisory (or better) event during that period.

Conversely, in the week following that period, the average was 4.4 inches of snow and only 21% of the years saw no measurable snow in that week while 19% saw a warning snowfall event (6" or more). The climo is vastly different once you are into that period.

 

Perfectly put.  And those who think it looks like April, that’s because it should on 11/20. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but people come here for good analysis because we have great mets in these threads, and its hard to totally check the IMBY goggles at the door.

I get it.

I have no issues with him being in here, or anybody. The only problem is he’s saying things that apply to NJ, and dont necessarily apply to SNE. That’s all. 

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3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Kevin only wants snow in December so he can be like a kid in his jammies around the holidays, sipping hot chocolate, and looking out the window at the snow. He has a lot invested in December panning out, hence the lashing out. 

I share the same wish during the holiday period....but most of our great Decembers and white Xmases happened because of snowy periods in mid to late December and not because of snow on December 2nd or something. His expectations of the T-day through December 5th period are completely unrealistic....it's like a 1 in 10 shot at best of what he wishes for. Maybe even less since he also never wants it to melt if we happen to get a snow event during that period.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter just said Dec 10. If you use the general Nina philosophy of how models rush and overdo cold etc.. you’re looking mid month . Hopefully you are right and it happens by Dec 1

I said 12/5..maybe up to 12/10 if you want to play it safe. You're taking what I say out of context.

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6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Kevin only wants snow in December so he can be like a kid in his jammies around the holidays, sipping hot chocolate, and looking out the window at the snow. He has a lot invested in December panning out, hence the lashing out. 

There’s no lashing out at all. I’ve been around a long time . I’ve fallen for this excitement before and it almost always is pushed back and back .. like a Judge HR over the monster 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I share the same wish during the holiday period....but most of our great Decembers and white Xmases happened because of snowy periods in mid to late December and not because of snow on December 2nd or something. His expectations of the T-day through December 5th period are completely unrealistic....it's like a 1 in 10 shot at best of what he wishes for. Maybe even less since he also never wants it to melt if we happen to get a snow event during that period.

Oh yeah..I'm just ribbing him - I was a big fan of the December 2020 period prior to the epic grincher. Like you said, the panic this early is absurd - especially with ensembles looking pretty good attm. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no lashing out at all. I’ve been around a long time . I’ve fallen for this excitement before and it almost always is pushed back and back .. like a Judge HR over the monster 

Would you rather have them currently showing a death vortex over GOA and a raging +NAO. No reason to panic yet on 11/22

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7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Would you rather have them currently showing a death vortex over GOA and a raging +NAO. No reason to panic yet on 11/22

No it’s great that we are seeing this . But devils advocate.. we saw this several times last winter and the season before etc etc. And as we got closer it got less favorable, pushed back or both. I’m not sure why people on here can’t understand why there is worry and doubt . We all want that look that is modeled. Just like we all “want” that hot model. Looks and wants are one thing..  satisfaction and verification are quite another. 

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@ORH_wxman look at the Scandi ridging retrograde towards Greenland... that's a legit signal for a potent -NAO. those like to tuck westward too

 

Agreed....I like when it retrogrades from existing Scandi ridging....because it's usually less of a model phantom and more likely to be real. Many of the bigger NAO blocks we have experienced evolved from a retrograding Scandinavian ridge or block.

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we're also going to see very strong high pressure move into Mongolia over the next 5-7 days, leading to a +EAMT that will extend the Pacific jet and lead to the anomalous -EPO that's showing up on modeling... so I think that's for real

the blocking is a bit more nebulous, but with all the Scandinavian ridging I think that there's a better chance than not of a -NAO after the first week of December

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-asia-mslp_anom-1669118400-1669420800-1670414400-20.thumb.gif.b69ffa0672ab23464b4ed780c960edac.gif

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