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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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We had an OK start here in Williamsport but around 8:15 I opened door and saw nothing but it felt very cold so I scurried back inside. Maybe an hour later there were raindrops on window. Doesn't look pretty out and we've reached the end, I think, nothing overnight to speak of. 

Have to rate this one a letdown.  Glad others had a much better experience.

They still have advisory up until 11a tomorrow, though.  Why: "ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heavy snow has moved out and only patchy drizzle and light snow is expected. Temperatures are rising, and should rise a couple more degrees overnight to go just above freezing in most places. Sub-freezing air coupled with the drizzle will still pose a threat to make light accumulations of ice."

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29 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

That little bit of snow sure caused problems last evening with accidents, stuck vehicles resulting in road closures. So when is the next bout of winter coming?

Lots of wet but not white on the LR GFS.  I still have hopes for some type of follow up SLP on the Thanksgiving weekend front but that is not showing on the progs and the cold air is also becoming more limited in availability for a few days after Thanksgiving so about to give up on that.  Apparently a few GEFS members do show the white Turkey a la King, Sandwich and Soup possibility 

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT put a Trace of snow in the books and Williamsport officially had 1.8 inches of snow yesterday.

I ended up measuring 2.1” of snow here, just north of Williamsport. 

This morning the grass is still covered with snow but the roads are bare.

A reminder that winter is here.

 

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No white stuff down in Lancaster.  Highest totals I've seen are around 5.5" from some areas in Somerset County on north towards Altoona and State College.  Nice little early season event for the midstate.  I won't have my total rainfall until tomorrow since my gauge is still at the old house and I only get there occasionally, more of a PSA for @Itstrainingtime ha.

I was checking out some record lows for Harrisburg and Sunday and Monday come in at 20 and 19, respectively.  Probably a smidge out of reach but worth keeping an eye on.

So, I know we're all familiar with the Tug Hill Plateau but is there a similar-type nickname for the upslope lake effect region between Erie and Buffalo?  If so, I haven't heard it.  They should be in for a nice thumping in the coming days.  

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9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

No white stuff down in Lancaster.  Highest totals I've seen are around 5.5" from some areas in Somerset County on north towards Altoona and State College.  Nice little early season event for the midstate.  I won't have my total rainfall until tomorrow since my gauge is still at the old house and I only get there occasionally, more of a PSA for @Itstrainingtime ha.

I was checking out some record lows for Harrisburg and Sunday and Monday come in at 20 and 19, respectively.  Probably a smidge out of reach but worth keeping an eye on.

So, I know we're all familiar with the Tug Hill Plateau but is there a similar-type nickname for the upslope lake effect region between Erie and Buffalo?  If so, I haven't heard it.  They should be in for a nice thumping in the coming days.  

WSW flow off the lakes sure puts Buff and Tug in the sno globe crosshairs for the next few days.  As I suggested yesterday, the next shot at LES for our crew comes in late weekend w/ reinforcing shot of cold.  We then moderate through Turk Day in hopes that the cold that is trying to get its act together decides if it can get here in time w/ that storm thats been showing up in the south, or if like often, its late to the party and sweeps in to freeze the rain puddles.  Big swings being shown in extended, so bust potential is surely there.  

Seeing snow pics from many.  Congrats on your early victories. 

NAM was a tad off on this one, but betting on the "hot" hand usually seems to work here. As like last year...GFS continues to gain my favor.  Duly noted.  

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13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

No white stuff down in Lancaster.  Highest totals I've seen are around 5.5" from some areas in Somerset County on north towards Altoona and State College.  Nice little early season event for the midstate.  I won't have my total rainfall until tomorrow since my gauge is still at the old house and I only get there occasionally, more of a PSA for @Itstrainingtime ha.

I was checking out some record lows for Harrisburg and Sunday and Monday come in at 20 and 19, respectively.  Probably a smidge out of reach but worth keeping an eye on.

So, I know we're all familiar with the Tug Hill Plateau but is there a similar-type nickname for the upslope lake effect region between Erie and Buffalo?  If so, I haven't heard it.  They should be in for a nice thumping in the coming days.  

Noted - I finished with 1.09" officially in Maytown. I haven't received a total from Maytown International yet...

Speaking of Buffalo - Josh Allen will likely be riding my bench on my fantasy team this weekend. Not so much because of all the red zone picks the past 2 games, but the passing game might be somewhat limited in Orchard Park on Sunday. :)  

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Noted - I finished with 1.09" officially in Maytown. I haven't received a total from Maytown International yet...

Speaking of Buffalo - Josh Allen will likely be riding my bench on my fantasy team this weekend. Not so much because of all the red zone picks the past 2 games, but the passing game might be somewhat limited in Orchard Park on Sunday. :)  

could be a good game to watch. 

edit-maybe not good, but definitely fun :snowing: 

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Noted - I finished with 1.09" officially in Maytown. I haven't received a total from Maytown International yet...
Speaking of Buffalo - Josh Allen will likely be riding my bench on my fantasy team this weekend. Not so much because of all the red zone picks the past 2 games, but the passing game might be somewhat limited in Orchard Park on Sunday.   

If they play the game. When I was up there for the 2014 Lake Event, almost every road was shutdown. Only reason we were able to travel the roads is because we had high visibility vests and the cops thought we were there to help dig people out.


.
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14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Noted - I finished with 1.09" officially in Maytown. I haven't received a total from Maytown International yet...

Speaking of Buffalo - Josh Allen will likely be riding my bench on my fantasy team this weekend. Not so much because of all the red zone picks the past 2 games, but the passing game might be somewhat limited in Orchard Park on Sunday. :)  

It would be awesome to watch a game in the snow.  I think of the Army/Navy game and the Eagles a few years back.  Not usually exciting games...but entertaining nonetheless.

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Just now, Superstorm said:


If they play the game. When I was up there for the 2014 Lake Event, almost every road was shutdown. Only reason we were able to travel the roads is because we had high visibility vests and the cops thought we were there to help dig people out.


.

Yeah, that's a good point. I'm sure that they're a little hardier up there with weather than some other venues, but there comes a time when too much is too much. (though it does sound like the south towns might get less than BUF and north)

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Just now, pasnownut said:

It would be awesome to watch a game in the snow.  I think of the Army/Navy game and the Eagles a few years back.  Not usually exciting games...but entertaining nonetheless.

I was at the Steelers game in Pittsburgh the day you're talking about with the Eagles...only got about 1" out there but it was 20 degrees and snowing heavily in the 1st quarter. Still a very fun experience. Shoot, I even wore a jacket. :)  

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6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


If they play the game. When I was up there for the 2014 Lake Event, almost every road was shutdown. Only reason we were able to travel the roads is because we had high visibility vests and the cops thought we were there to help dig people out.


.

 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah, that's a good point. I'm sure that they're a little hardier up there with weather than some other venues, but there comes a time when too much is too much. (though it does sound like the south towns might get less than BUF and north)

I have friends who are Packers fans. Drove out to a game a few years ago and it was dumping snow. They were sending videos of them driving in blizzard like conditions and streets snow packed. They said they had a great time, people were still tailgating. different breed

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37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Noted - I finished with 1.09" officially in Maytown. I haven't received a total from Maytown International yet...

Speaking of Buffalo - Josh Allen will likely be riding my bench on my fantasy team this weekend. Not so much because of all the red zone picks the past 2 games, but the passing game might be somewhat limited in Orchard Park on Sunday. :)  

Allen is also my QB.  The only guarantee is if you bench him he will go off for 40+ points haha.

 

15 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

I have friends who are Packers fans. Drove out to a game a few years ago and it was dumping snow. They were sending videos of them driving in blizzard like conditions and streets snow packed. They said they had a great time, people were still tailgating. different breed

You have good friends.  Signed a lifelong Packers fan.

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24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Allen is also my QB.  The only guarantee is if you bench him he will go off for 40+ points haha.

 

You have good friends.  Signed a lifelong Packers fan.

Friend of mine here at work that is a sports nut like I am takes an annual weekend trip somewhere across the US for a "3 game in 3 day long weekend" excursion...earlier this fall, he went to a Cubs game at Wrigley on Friday, saw the Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, and then went to Lambeau on Sunday. Drove back to Chicago Monday and flew back and was in the office Tuesday morning. 

He said that the Lambeau experience was one of a kind...his only complaint was that there's very little room in those seats. Stand up for something and when he went to sit down, his seating space shrunk in half while he was standing. :)  

Edit: he also said that attending a Packers game is a very costly experience. LOL

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47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was at the Steelers game in Pittsburgh the day you're talking about with the Eagles...only got about 1" out there but it was 20 degrees and snowing heavily in the 1st quarter. Still a very fun experience. Shoot, I even wore a jacket. :)  

are you one of them jacket n shorts when its really cold kinda dudes? :P

 

I know one one of them.  He must be half woolly mammoth/Neanderthal??  He makes me laugh when I see him....then he laughs back while I look like the michelin man in layers of clothing.  

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A few short-term model verifications for this past snow using MDT as the spot.    List below show approx snow forecasted at MDT and is listed in rank of which model appears to have done the best the morning on the snow.  Just taking Nam, Rgem, GFS, Euro, and Icon...using the graphic output on Pivotal and rounding a bit.  MDT recorded a Trace of snow.  Good call by the NWS in not buying into the GFS this run as to short term forecasting. 

 

#1 Nam-No snow predicted.   Some snow shown on TT in elevations near MDT. 

#1 Icon (TT)-No snow predicted 

#3 Euro-~ 1"

#4 RGEM-~ 1"

#5 GFS-4-6"

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Noted - I finished with 1.09" officially in Maytown. I haven't received a total from Maytown International yet...

Speaking of Buffalo - Josh Allen will likely be riding my bench on my fantasy team this weekend. Not so much because of all the red zone picks the past 2 games, but the passing game might be somewhat limited in Orchard Park on Sunday. :)  

That is a worry for me as well.  I have Tyler Bass and Gabe Davis. 

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37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A few short-term model verifications for this past snow using MDT as the spot.    List below show approx snow forecasted at MDT and is listed in rank of which model appears to have done the best the morning on the snow.  Just taking Nam, Rgem, GFS, Euro, and Icon...using the graphic output on Pivotal and rounding a bit.  MDT recorded a Trace of snow.  Good call by the NWS in not buying into the GFS this run as to short term forecasting. 

 

#1 Nam-No snow predicted.   Some snow shown on TT in elevations near MDT. 

#1 Icon (TT)-No snow predicted 

#3 Euro-~ 1"

#4 RGEM-~ 1"

#5 GFS-4-6"

GFS missed badly in western parts of the LSV. Lots of approx. 1" reports where the GFS had warning criteria snow amounts. 

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29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A few short-term model verifications for this past snow using MDT as the spot.    List below show approx snow forecasted at MDT and is listed in rank of which model appears to have done the best the morning on the snow.  Just taking Nam, Rgem, GFS, Euro, and Icon...using the graphic output on Pivotal and rounding a bit.  MDT recorded a Trace of snow.  Good call by the NWS in not buying into the GFS this run as to short term forecasting. 

 

#1 Nam-No snow predicted.   Some snow shown on TT in elevations near MDT. 

#1 Icon (TT)-No snow predicted 

#3 Euro-~ 1"

#4 RGEM-~ 1"

#5 GFS-4-6"

hmmmm.  Middletown was always on razors edge no matter what model.  Pictures are worth a 1000 words tho.  

Nice job all around GFS.  

namconus_asnow_neus_13.png

 

gfs_asnow_neus_7.png

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS missed badly in western parts of the LSV. Lots of approx. 1" reports where the GFS had warning criteria snow amounts. 

GFS only did well where it showed no snow for the LSV.  I am a GFS fan but its late run up to the storm showed NWS should have been forecasting a plowable at MDT and basically all of the LSV west from there.  When you go slightly west from the Capital area, the Canadian was way overblown as well.     One of the worst GFS forecasts in quite some time though it was not so bad if you go back 48 hours...just the 24 hours leading up to the event.   Here is the 12Z GFS from yesterday.  It truly is laughable in the LSV.  Canderson was 5" short.  LOL

image.thumb.png.cbf1229c926aacd0bcb0d96223f24ff0.png

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nooners and quite a bit more chilly than I was expecting.  39, windy and downright bone chilling out with an almost full cloud deck. 

46 and quite breezy here under variably cloudy skies. 

You were referring to Elliott Abrams yesterday - I remember when I was young, there were a few terms he used often to describe cloud cover during the winter months:

  • Variably Cloudy - did NOT want to hear that. It meant flurries at best.
  • Considerable Cloudiness - not a big fan of that either...usually meant light snow/flurries that didn't amount to much
  • Cloudy - now we're talking. Potentially could be a meaningful snowfall
  • Overcast - the best term. Often used during significant events

That's my recollection and reaction to how his forecast would begin for the day...I always remember wanting to hear him start of with "Cloudy and cold today with..." or "Overcast and cold with..."

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