Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,272
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Iceberg
    Newest Member
    Iceberg
    Joined

Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
 Share

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

Holy smokes! LOL

The whole run is drastically different out in the upper 200's as both you and I joked about happening:-).  From a blocked cutter to a southern slider.   At 12Z the PA weather 540 line was in PA on Dec 11th...at 18z it is in Central Alabama.   How much for Cape Hatteras? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The whole run is drastically different out in the upper 200's as both you and I joked about happening:-).  From a blocked cutter to a southern slider.   At 12Z the PA weather 540 line was in PA on Dec 11th...at 18z it is in Central Alabama.   How much for Cape Hatteras? 

yep pretty much figured. LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:D
My next long-range forecast discussion will probably come out this Friday, though I will try to post it sooner. 

In last week's discussion, I explained that the core of the Arctic air will extend from the northwestern U.S. into the Northern and Central Plains and Upper Midwest as we move into the beginning of December. The eastern U.S., especially across the South, will only experience brief, 1-2 days of colder weather before temperatures rebound each time.

Last week's long-range discussion: https://firsthandweather.com/long-range-forecast/early-december-long-range-forecast

But then things will change. A strong Greenland block will build in early December, resulting in the eastward and southeastward expansion of the colder temperature anomalies. The Southeast will probably be the last to experience any noteworthy, Arctic air, but after about the first 8-10 days of December, things may start getting interesting, temperature and precipitation-wise.

More soon in my next long-range forecast later this week.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It took awhile to find the time it was logged but apparently my WS-5000 logged a 60.2 mph daily max wind gust at 3:46 this afternoon. There were some decent gusts at that time of the day but not sure about that high of one. I have notifications set to alert for gusts >50mph and that gust was the only one to trigger that today. I suppose it’s possible. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, paweather said:

Waiting on Blizz to post the GFS snow maps! 

The crazy solutions should now continue to show on the Op runs for the period between the 10th & 15th.

It should be just a matter of time until this blocking pattern produces a Winter storm for us.

Here is another look at the 12z GFS storm toward the end of its run.

E1AA578D-D107-4280-AF4D-6D3A163334DB.png

CD56EA53-356D-45B4-A702-2A2F6AAB8679.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The crazy solutions should now continue to show on the Op runs for the period between the 10th & 15th.

It should be just a matter of time until this blocking pattern produces a Winter storm for us.

Here is another look at the 12z GFS storm toward the end of its run.

E1AA578D-D107-4280-AF4D-6D3A163334DB.png

CD56EA53-356D-45B4-A702-2A2F6AAB8679.png

Thanks Blizz!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The whole run is drastically different out in the upper 200's as both you and I joked about happening:-).  From a blocked cutter to a southern slider.   At 12Z the PA weather 540 line was in PA on Dec 11th...at 18z it is in Central Alabama.   How much for Cape Hatteras? 

Speaking specifically about our region (C-PA), a suppressed storm track would be a bigger concern to me than a cutting one with the establishment of a -NAO regime of the caliber thats been advertised solidly on the guidance (-3 to -4). Now truth be told, this is a great looking winter pattern upcoming for the eastern US once it does get truly established… which seems to be still in the realm of just beyond D7-10.

So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise.

What also comes with a blocky pattern? Model mayhem trying to handle the individual features so I’d be looking for a lot of that as well. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...